Saturday, June 23, 2018

Why submit 3 names?

Why did PKR/Wan Azizah submit three names for the sultan to choose from, asks lawyer R Kengadharan?

In accordance to the constitution, the MB designate should be the one who commands the confidence of the majority of the state reps of the winning party/coalition. By right that should be one person not three.

As mentioned before, Pakatan submitted one name for PM and one name for AG. So why not do the same for Selangor MB?

There are probably three reasons for this.

i) There are factions within PKR which want different candidates. Wan Azizah wanted someone and Azmin Ali wanted someone else. The third one candidate was probably just a name they threw in there so there could be three names submitted.


ii) The sultan wanted more than one name. That was the case last time around and that's the case now.

iii) PKR wasn't willing to engage in a Battle Royale with the palace over this matter. The other parties, DAP, Amanah and Bersatu, which are all junior partners in the Selangor government, did not raise a fuss about this and accepted PKR's approach.

Also as mentioned before, Dr M would have taken a different approach and followed the constitution. He would have submitted just one name. (If you go by what legal experts are saying, what's happened in Perlis and Selangor is not in line with the constitution).

Thursday, June 21, 2018

BN shadow cabinet a good idea but...

KJ says he will assemble a shadow cabinet if he becomes UMNO president. A shadow cabinet is a good idea. It's something Pakatan never did.

The reason wasn't that Pakatan didn't have the right people to fill the positions. The reason is that any shadow cabinet they unveiled would have been criticized to death by BN and used as scaremongering propaganda by BN.

Imagine if Lim Guan Eng had been named as finance minister in the Pakatan shadow cabinet. You can see UMNO going to town with that one. But imagine if they had named only Malays for key posts. MCA, MIC and Gerakan could then say: "You claim to be a meritocracy but you fill all the top positions with Malays".

So whatever they do, they will be criticized. If they put a non-Malay in a top post, they will be vilified by UMNO. If they fail to put a non-Malay in a top post, they will be vilified by MCA/MIC/Gerakan. So they decided not to name a shadow cabinet.

KJ won't have that luxury should he be elected UMNO president because he has committed to doing so. But he will face the same issues Pakatan faced when it was in the opposition.

Let's take the case of finance minister again. If he names a Malay, people will say: "More of the same... UMNO cannot see beyond race." If he names a non-Malay, people will say: "You see, he is copying Pakatan". Either way he gets whacked.

Welcome to the opposition, KJ!

Wednesday, June 20, 2018

Does the royalty have discretion in choosing PM/MB?

This question of whether the ruler of a state has discretion over whom he wants as MB is in the news because of what's happened in Perlis and Selangor.

In Perlis, the ruler made his choice despite the fact that none of BN's state reps supported that person. In Selangor, Pakatan's original preferred candidate was not chosen. Both cases are different although the principle involved is the same. It all hinges on whether the ruler has discretion over this matter.

It's similar to the case of whether the king has discretion over who the PM should be. When Pakatan won the general election, Pakatan put forth only one name: Dr M's, as their PM candidate. According to press reports, the king actually preferred Wan Azizah (his dislike of Dr M is well known) but she declined and Pakatan as a whole stuck to its guns. After some delay, Dr M was sworn in as PM.

Something similar happened with the AG candidate. All Pakatan component parties wanted Tommy Thomas and they submitted only his name. Apparently the king wanted more options but again Pakatan stuck to its guns and insisted on Thomas as their only choice. Again after some delay, Thomas was sworn in.

In Perlis, UMNO actually boycotted the swearing in of the rulers choice of MB to signal their protest. Afterwards, the state reps apologized to the ruler and subsequently seemed to accept his choice although some quarters in UMNO insists that the matter is going to be settled in the courts. It's not clear whether the legal case is being pursued. Most likely UMNO will throw in the towel on this one so as to avoid a clash with the ruler. This, despite the fact that UMNO actually has a 2/3 majority in that state.

In Selangor, there seems to be two rival factions within PKR. Wan Azizah seemed to be with the other component parties in wanting Idris Ahmad as MB while former MB Azmin Ali preferred Amirudin. In the end, Wan Azizah agreed to submit three names for the sultan to consider. The other parties didn't object and Amirudin was chosen. There's little that Idris can do despite earlier having support letters from all four component parties because three names were submitted for consideration.

If Pakatan as a whole had insisted on submitting just one name and the sultan refused to accept that candidate, it would have led to a constitutional crisis. If push came to shove, would the sultan have eventually given in or would Pakatan. We won't know because Pakatan obviously did give in.

However this whole issue of the role of a constitutional monarchy is far from resolved. At the federal level, the king averted a constitutional crisis by accepting Dr M and Thomas as PM and AG, respectively. In Perlis and Selangor it looks like a crisis was averted by the winning parties backing down on their demands.

The constitutionality of it all has not actually been tested because in all these cases, one party backed down. It should be noted however that all legal experts who have weighed in on this matter believe that in a constitutional monarchy, the ruler has to appoint the preferred candidate of the winning party.

No Battle Royale in the cards for Selangor

The issue of constitutional monarchy has been in the news a lot lately because of various things that have happened in the aftermath of GE14.

The king had delayed Dr M's swearing in as PM and he also delayed the swearing in of Dr M/Pakatan's choice of Attorney General. Neither of these things should have happened, Dr M has said. And he's right. In a constitutional monarchy, the ruler has to act on the advice of the PM.

The Perlis constitutional issue which seems to have died down a bit (but not totally resolved), has also put the spotlight on the role of constitutional ruler. Over there, the ruler chose as MB someone whom the Perlis BN do not want. Actually, the ruler should go with whoever the ruling party wants.

Although many anti-BN people were glad to see the Perlis ruler have his way over the BN state reps there, this has set a bad precedence. And it's coming to haunt Pakatan in Selangor. In the previous election, Pakatan submitted only one name for its choice of MB but the Sultan rejected that and asked that more than one name to be submitted. He ended up choosing Azmin Ali although Pakatan's first choice was Wan Azizah.

At the time, PKR (and the other parties in Pakatan) felt it did not have the political capital to pursue this matter to the end (which would have meant taking it to the courts). Pakatan had many fires to put out and waging a legal battle with the sultan wasn't exactly something it wanted to contend with. So it gave in. This too had set a bad precedent.

It's been widely reported that all factions wanted Idris Ahmad to be the new MB. But the sultan asked for more than one name and Pakatan has complied. He didn't choose Idris.

PKR probably made an assessment and concluded that it was still not time to engage in any Battle Royale with the royalty. The rest just went along because it's PKR's prerogative when it comes to the Selangor MB.

One thing's for sure though: Dr M would not have stood for this if the MB issue were up to Bersatu to decide. He would have just submitted one name, just as he had done with the AG situation.

And if asked by reporters why he did that, Dr M would have replied that he wanted to "save" the royalty by ensuring that they do the right thing instead of taking actions that would go against their role as constitutional monarchs.

He knows that the sultan actually does not actually have discretion in choosing an MB. If he were to give the sultan more than one name, he would be making it possible for the sultan to overstep his role as a constitutional ruler. By giving only one name, he would be making sure the sultan fulfills his constitutional role to affirm the winning coalition's choice.

Sunday, June 17, 2018

Zahid, Ku Li or KJ for party president?

Becoming UMNO President will be his biggest failure. 

So, there are seven people in the running for president of UMNO. In reality only three actually matter: Zahid, Ku Li and KJ.

Whoever wins the presidency has their work cut out for them. UMNO has never been in the opposition at the federal level before. If its performance as the opposition at the state level (in Penang and Selangor) is any indication of its potential at the federal level, we are looking at a lacklustre to useless opposition in Parliament.

So far, what we've seen that passes for opposition checks and balances is just sour grapes sniping by BN leaders. Nothing particularly insightful or useful. Most of the time it's hypocritical cheap shots.

Take for example the griping that we heard from some BN leaders after it was announced that opposition MPs would also get some allocation of funds but only 1/5th of that of Pakatan MPs. The fact that there should be equal funding for all is a serious point but when these complaints come from BN MPs it just plain disingenuous. If they think unequal funding for MPs is fundamentally wrong as a matter of principle, why didn't they raise a stink about this when BN was in power and gave Pakatan MPs nothing. Don't talk about 1/5th or even 1/10th. They gave Pakatan MPs nothing. And now that they are getting less funding they complain that it's not fair.

Then again what can KJ do that's different? This is his message about restoring the "soul" of UMNO:
The soul I am referring to is a Malay party that is inclusive and includes all Malaysians. A party that opens itself to all levels of society and not only to those at the top, nobility, corporate leaders, and elites. A party for the common folk that takes care of their interest. A party that is not racist, sexist, timid and no longer deaf to the wishes of the people. A party that is magnanimous to other races and perhaps one day, BN can be rebuilt as a big house for all.  
All very good stuff. But why didn't he say this when his father-in-law, Pak Lah, was PM (and he was his advisor)? And why didn't he say this when Najib was PM (and he was a minister)? As Lim Kit Siang has often said about KJ's sudden openness and progressiveness: it's a case of "too little, too late".

But better late than never? Perhaps but probably not. UMNO is a "gone case" that's beyond redemption. As Dr M put it, UMNO has become a party that people despise. If KJ wants to repair UMNO, it will be a decades-long operation. He will be an old man before he can rejuvenate UMNO, if that's even possible.

Still, he is probably UMNO's best hope. Strategically, he's made a lot of bad moves and has bet on the wrong horse twice already (Pak Lah and Najib) but he's young, suave and smart. The total opposite of Zahid, who is antiquated, thuggish and just doesn't make much sense. In contrast to KJ, Zahid is the worst choice for UMNO.

He might very well get dragged into the 1MDB case. Don't forget, he was the one who infamously corroborated Najib's claim that the billions of ringgit in Najib's personal bank account came from an Arab donor. I'm sure the investigators will want to have a word or two with him on that. But even if he survives that, he his hardly a reformist kind of personality. He represents all that is wrong with UMNO. How can he be the one to reform the party?

How about Ku Li then? Well, he has a lot of experience in politics and he is free from the taint of 1MDB and other corruption scandals. He is a safe pair of hands to helm UMNO but he is hardly the reformist type. Anyone who wants to try to save UMNO -- in this political reality that we live in today where Pakatan (with all its ideals) is the government of the day -- will have to be brave and bold. But "brave" and "bold" are not two words you would commonly associate with Ku Li.

So that brings us back to KJ, UMNO's best option for the president's post. It's something that Dr M himself has said although KJ has dismissed it as sarcasm. Perhaps it wasn't sarcasm but wishful thinking on Dr M's part. We all know how much Dr M despises KJ. So, perhaps he is hoping KJ will become UMNO president for he whom the gods would destroy they first make him UMNO president.

KJ may be smart and charismatic but all the smarts and charisma in the world cannot save UMNO from eventually becoming a mosquito party. Some of its leaders are proud of the fact that it won 54 seats in Parliament. Let's see how long that number stays with them. East Malaysian politicians may be quicker to jump ship but nobody wants to go down with the ship. Now that UMNO is no longer funding their divisions, let's see how long these guys stick around.

To reform the party, he will need to bring in new blood. To reform and revive UMNO he needs fewer Ibrahim Alis and more Syed Saddiqs. But if there were some Syed Saddiq-types out there -- idealistic, intelligent, articulate -- thinking of entering politics, which party do you think he would join:

a) A party known for being racist, feudalistic, arrogant, corrupt and out of power.
b) Any of the component parties of Pakatan Harapan, which happens to also be the federal government.

This question alone will tell you why UMNO is indeed a "gone case".