Why it's important for Rafizi to win PKR deputy presidential election

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It's not surprising that Azmin Ali has rejected the idea of a debate between him and Rafizi ahead of the PKR deputy presidential election.

Rafizi is an intellectual and a skilled debater. You can see his performance against Khairy Jamaluddin and see what a good orator he is.

Some people don't like Rafizi because they see him as a non-team player. He does not hesitate to raise a ruckus even though it upsets certain people within his party and the coalition. In contrast, Azmin is a smooth operator who knows how to play the game and secure power. He even became MB of Selangor despite his own party preferring Wan Azizah to play that role (the Selangor Palace preferred him, however). And now he seems to be favored by Dr M, who has tapped him to become Economic Affairs Minister and even has a seat on the board of Khazanah. That's how smooth he is.

Conspiracy theorists say that Dr M is propping him up as a counterbalance against Anwar and that eventually he would become Dr M's successor. While it's hard to imagine this actually being the case given that not only PKR but DAP and Amanah also want Anwar to become the next PM, it must be said that Dr M's elevation of Azmin's status by giving him the twin prestigious roles of Economics Minister and Khazanah board member does raise eyebrows a bit. What's more likely though is that Dr M, in his wily ways, wants to check some of Anwar's clout, that's all.

If Azmin is Dr M's blue-eyed boy, it probably makes sense that PKR elects someone like Rafizi to be its deputy president. It's also useful for Pakatan as a whole to have someone who is willing to ruffle some feathers and voice out some inconvenient truths.

What can UMNO do without a war chest?

It's staggering thinking about the amount of money UMNO/BN use to spend on the election. UMNO claims for example that the RM116.7 million in cash found in Najib's apartments belongs to the party and that it was to be used for the election.

Now we heard that security guards at the PM Department took some RM3.5 million in cash that was meant to be used for the elections.

How much more money was there that was used for the election, we don't know. Whatever it is, it's a lot.

Now that UMNO/BN is no longer in power and therefore no longer has the means to create a war chest for elections, how the heck is it going to effectively contest in elections in the future?

Former opposition parties like DAP are used to be cash-strapped. I don't know if it's still the case now but its elected reps used to have to donate a portion of their salaries to the party just so that there are funds to run the party. They run their election campaigns on a shoestring budget.

In contrast, UMNO is used to splashing hundreds of millions of ringgit to run its election campaigns. Now that the gravy train has stopped running, what can it do? How can it function as before? The answer is that it can't. This is why there is no election comeback possibilities for UMNO for the foreseeable future. 

Does the 100-Days matter?

When  you are campaigning, you need to make your message clear and simple for everyone to understand. Creating a 100-Day Manifesto is a one good way to do that. It sets out clearly and simply what you want to achieve for the rakyat if they vote you into power, and it sets a time limit for those things to be achieved.

Why 100 days and not 99 days or 101 days or 75 days or 125 days etc, etc? Why 100? Because it's a nice round figure that sounds catchy and easy for any voter to grasp.

If you are a political watcher of any sort, you will know that politicians will make promises that they cannot keep. In some cases, this means promises delayed. In other cases, it means promises unfulfilled. That's true of politicians overseas and it's true here too. It's to be expected. And so it is with the Pakatan 100-Day Manifesto.

What's important is to see which promises are not being implemented and what is the reason for its delay or non-implementation.

Let's take the case of GST. Pakatan had campaigned heavily on removing GST should it come to power. This message resonated strongly with voters, many of whom felt the pinch because of the 6% tax.

Getting rid of the GST is one promise Pakatan cannot fail to do. It is an absolute must-do. And that is why even though there were some early indications that it might take some time to actually dismantle it, Dr M ordered that GST be effectively removed immediately by bringing the GST rate down to 0%.

Technically bringing it down to 0% is not the same as dismantling it. But the practical effect of it on consumers is the same as it being abolished. So the people are happy. Pakatan knew it absolutely must get rid of GST and it found a way to effectively do so. Immediately.

Another thing that Pakatan needed to do immediately was to investigate scandals, in particular the 1MDB fiasco. In the manifesto it said it would set up a Royal Commission of Inquiry (RCI) into such scandals. So far no RCI has been set up yet but does it really matter? Does anyone seriously think that investigations into 1MDB-related crimes are not being taken seriously or given enough attention. Yes, technically you are not exactly fulfilling the manifesto if you don't set up an RCI (as stated in the manifesto) but what the rakyat wanted is for the culprits behind these scandals be brought to justice. And that is ongoing. Nobody's going to complain about this one.

Something that is being delayed is the promise to standardize minimum wages across the country. That probably won't happen within 100 days. Is it good to have standardized minimum wages? Yes. Will Pakatan eventually implement it? There's no reason to doubt that. But it probably won't happen exactly within 100 days. Whether it takes 101 days or 110 days or 150 days or more, as long as there is a genuine commitment to see it through within a reasonable amount of time (not 1000 days!) I think the rakyat will forgive the delay.

And the same goes for the rest of the manifesto. The question is: Will there be a walk back of the promises. So far there's no indication that Pakatan plans to renege on any of the promises. But even if it were to do so on one or two items, it's important to look at whatever reasons they give for it and to assess whether it's a reasonable and acceptable argument. Perhaps there's some new developments that make it impossible to fulfill certain promises. Maybe there are better alternatives than what was promised. Or maybe it's a totally flimsy or ridiculous reason that they offer. We need to assess each situation and decide whether we feel Pakatan has been the right choice.

The alternative is of course to go back to BN or whatever remains of BN. Or simply to UMNO. Or PAS. Does anybody want that?

Khairy's Hail Mary pass

Smooth operator

In American football, a Hail Mary pass is a very long throw by the quarterback, often made in desperation when there are no other viable options left.

Khairy Jamaluddin has bet on the wrong horse twice. First he bet that his father-in-law Pak Lah could coast his way through several terms as prime minister, thus paving the way for KJ to eventually be in succession for that role himself. That plan crashed and burned when Pak Lah got unceremoniously dumped by his own party after just one term. 

This was disastrous for KJ. The party was now run by the very guy who led the charge to remove Pak Lah. And Najib deeply distrusted KJ (for obvious reasons). He wasn't even made a minister despite being UMNO Youth head. But KJ decided to play the long game and did everything in his power to assuage Najib's distrust of him. In time, Najib would come to trust him and make him a minister.

When the 1MDB scandal erupted KJ could have spoken truth to power like Muhyiddin and Shafie Apdal did. Instead, he bet on the wrong horse again and defended Najib.

Now, you can interpret that in one of two ways. One viewpoint is that KJ was a fool who actually believed that there was nothing amiss about 1MDB and that everything was hunky dory. The other viewpoint is that he is a man with no principles and will do what is necessary to stay in the good graces of his boss. Which one of these two is more likely to be the case?

KJ is an Oxford educated dude. Presumably, he is capable of reading and understanding the Wall Street Journal's (or the New York Times' or Malaysiakini's) account of what's going on with 1MDB . If the rest of us non-Oxford grads can smell something fishy with 1MDB, I'm sure KJ could too. This leaves us with the other viewpoint, which is that he is a power-hungry guy with no principles.

So, what's worse, an idiot or a guy with no principles? Well, both are terrible. Which is what KJ is.

Make no mistake, KJ is one of those guys who feels it's his destiny to become PM of this country. I'm sure deep in his heart, despite the extremely long odds, he still thinks that's a possibility. So, what can he do now that he's in the opposition, in a party that everyone's abandoned (except for MIC and MCA) and doesn't even hold any position in his own party?

He's got no good options so here's his Hail Mary pass:

KJ knows the road to PM-ship in his lifetime will not be through BN (which is all but dead) nor will it be through UMNO (which will only grow weaker with time as more elected reps and members abandon ship). No, it will have to be through Pakatan Harapan. So, his long-game Hail Mary pass will be to make his way into Pakatan and eventually become its leader.

I know, it sounds crazy but this is how this scenario could play out:

First, he will try to distinguish himself as a credible opposition member. No doubt, Zahid is the actual opposition leader but he's pretty useless in that role (even Najib is more articulate than Zahid). Make no mistake, the person everyone will be looking to for smart rhetoric will be KJ.

Even on the first day of Parliament he managed to distinguish himself by refusing to join the walk out by his colleagues in the opposition. Never mind that there was one other opposition MP, Anifah Aman, who also declined to walk out. (Anifah who?) The MP that social media paid attention to was KJ, not Anifah Whatshisname. 

KJ is already rebranding himself.

KJ will continue to play the rebel role. The so-called "conscience of UMNO" who will say all the right things while his colleagues continue to make a fool and a mockery of themselves (something they excel in). He will continue to wow the millennials who are already star struck by his hip and savvy ways.

At some point, KJ might even get booted out of UMNO, which would play quite well with the narrative he wants to weave. He doesn't want to be seen as abandoning ship. But if he gets kicked out, that's a different matter. Annuar Musa has already disclosed that KJ didn't join the pre-council meeting and MP's discussions before the first day of Parliament. He will do what he wants until UMNO is sick of him.

If KJ gets thrown into the political wilderness that would only bolster his credentials among those who are awed by him. Of course the current Pakatan leaders want nothing to do with him. Mahathir, Anwar and Guan Eng all detest him with a passion.

But Mahathir is already 93 years old and Anwar is no spring chicken either at 70. Granted, Guan Eng is only 57 but he's Chinese and therefore not seriously in line to be PM (or as Guan Eng put it, "I'm not qualified to be PM").

KJ is only 42 year old. Even if he goes for a 20-year Hail Mary pass, he would only be 62 by then. Two decades from now, we will have a new crop of Pakatan leaders and they might not be as unforgiving of KJ as the current leadership is.

Heck, some of them might even kinda admire him, especially if he's been playing the rebel role of keeping everyone in check with his smart rhetoric for 20 years. A new crop of Pakatan leaders might actually say, "Why don't we take this guy into our ranks?"

Nah! This ain't gonna happen. This scenario is as close to an impossibility as you can get. But if you want a Hail Mary pass scenario, this is it. Nothing else even has a ghost of a chance.

Khairy tarik harga

No, KJ is not going to be the Opposition Leader.

And no, he won't be BN's Secretary-General.

It's UMNO President or nothing.

Well, since he lost in that election, it's nothing for him.

KJ clearly thought being the UMNO president would be a great vehicle for him to really establish himself as a reformist. Imagine if he could have achieved just half of what he promised or even a quarter of it. That would still be more changes than what Zahid and Ku Li combined had to offer.

But given his ambitions of someday becoming the PM, he needs a vehicle. What will he do? How much of an impact can he make by just being an MP? This is the BIG question.

Of course KJ being KJ (and with his PM ambitions still fully intact), you can be sure he's already cooking up some ideas. Whatever it is, you can also be sure of a few things:

i) It won't be through BN (or whatever replaces it in the near future). If he had wanted to try to do something through BN he would have lobbied for the Opposition Leader in Parliament job or accepted the BN Sec-Gen job. But he's clearly not interested.

ii) It won't be through Pakatan Harapan. While some BN types might be able to switch over and get accepted into Pakatan, this would never be the case for KJ, who is despised by Dr M, Anwar and Lim Guan Eng, whom he has personally offended in more ways than one.

iii) He'll continue to bolster his "hip" image among millennials. Although the politically savvy ones knows what his true colors are like, having watch him play the UMNO game since the Pak Lah's days, less politically-aware youngsters are captivated by his seeming progressiveness and savvy ways.

I have a feeling we'll find out pretty soon. As a media-savvy politicians he knows he needs to stay in the spotlight or he would soon be forgotten.

Is it a good thing if UMNO implodes?

We've seen Sabah and Sarawak -- BN's former safe deposits -- ditch BN/UMNO. We've also seen a couple of peninsula UMNO MPs jump ship (to become independents supportive of Pakatan).

Is this the start of a trend? Likely. Will it result in the crumbling of UMNO? Possibly. Is this a good thing? Yes and no.

Many people are happy to see UMNO defeated and quite a few want to see it completely crushed. But as Wong Chin Huat points out in this opinion piece, that may not necessarily be a good thing. He highlights three key reasons. Let's look at them, shall we?

1. PAS would become the main opposition
Wong predicts that if UMNO collapses, many of its voters will switch to PAS instead, allowing it to not only retain Kelantan and Terengganu but to also take over Perlis, Kedah and Pahang in GE15.

I don't agree with that assessment. After four or five years of Pakatan, the electorate will get a chance to compare what Pakatan has achieved and what PAS has achieved. That being the case, PAS will probably at most be able to hold on to Kelantan but it will probably lose Terengganu and it has no chance of winning Perlis, Kedah or Pahang.

2. UMNO MPs switching over to Pakatan
Will that happen? Right now the guidelines are that they have to become Pakatan-supporting independents. But that might change over time. Bersatu seems to be the one most open to accepting from UMNO members. PKR is not quite as keen but may be open to the idea if they see lots of them moving into Bersatu. If UMNO implodes, Pakatan might be flooded with UMNO members, via Bersatu and PKR, says Wong.

Again, I don't quite agree with that assessment. All the leaders of the component parties know just how hard it was for them to finally defeat BN/UMNO. These guys are not short-term-minded idiots. Having achieved the impossible, they will not risk all that they've worked so hard for over a bunch of former UMNO MPs who are not worth that much to them in the first place.

True, Bersatu could use more MPs to boost its numbers within the coalition. But their man is the PM and as a party they carry more weight than their numbers suggest. They've got nothing to worry about in this first term. What about the second term? Well, it's worth remembering that Bersatu contested in a lot of UMNO areas (and lost). In GE15, they will contest in the same areas and this time around, they are less likely to lose. Why? Because voters wouldn't want to vote for down-and-out party (which is what UMNO is already and will be even more so by GE15). They will vote Bersatu and the party will be more at par with DAP and PKR after GE15. That being the case, there is no reason to take in frogs from UMNO. What about PKR? Well, their man is going to be the PM, certainly for the second half of this first term. It doesn't have any need for UMNO MPs.

3. Implosion of Pakatan
This is related to Point 2 above. According to wong, the influx of UMNO MPs will affect the composition of the coalition and cause it to implode. This premise is based on the assumption that there would be an influx of UMNO MPs should that party collapse. I don't think it will happen. I think Pakatan will stick to its principle that these people have to be independents supportive of Pakatan. They will not be part of Pakatan.

Conclusion: UMNO's implosion is not such a bad thing after all.

UMNO members will get the president they deserve

There's a famous saying that people get the government they deserve. What it essentially means is if the general populace is apathetic about the situation they are in, they deserve more of the same. If they want change they need to take action.

For a long time, we Malaysians got the government we deserved. Despite the corruption, the arrogance, the elitism and all that bad stuff that came with BN being the government of the day, not enough Malaysians voted against BN. Which is why we had over six decades of BN rule. It's the government we collectively deserved.


Granted, the odds were always stacked against the opposition. It didn't have much money, there was blatant gerrymandering, postal votes were always suspect, etc, etc... Yet, if enough people cared enough to vote for the opposition and against BN, change could have happened. But it didn't... until GE14, where despite all the disadvantage and against all odds, Pakatan Harapan finally won. I guess at long last we deserved something better.

Well, UMNO is going to vote for a new president after the last one resigned in disgrace. Who will it be: Zahid, Ku Li or KJ?

Zahid represents that status quo. And it's reflected in the debate where he said UMNO wasn't at fault. It was the component parties that failed to deliver. It will be the same old UMNO as before under Zahid. No change.

Ku Li is a safe pair of hands. He's of royal blood so he will get on well with the royalty. He is independently wealthy, so there won't be any scandals involving "gifts" and "donations" or billions of ringgit mysteriously appearing in his bank account. He is untainted by 1MDB. He's sort of a middle-ground candidate who will try to make things better but won't really rock the boat.

KJ is the radical who wants to change UMNO and turn it into something new. He's the most savvy of the three and he's saying all the right things. UMNO has the best chance of transformation under KJ than Zahid (no change) or Ku Li (little change). But like Zahid, he was part of Najib's Cabinet and he had fervently defended his boss on the 1MDB issue. Like Zahid, he is tainted by 1MDB.

Some 165,000 party representatives from 191 party divisions will cast their votes on Saturday. So, who will it be? Answer: The president will be the one UMNO members deserve.

Will Malays continue to support UMNO?

UMNO leaders are fond of saying that the party will be all right because a huge percentage of the Malays still supported UMNO in GE14.

Annuar Musa has claimed that UMNO got 60% of the Malay vote in GE14. For the sake of discussion, let's assume he is right. The natural questions is will UMNO be able to even retain that 60% the next time around?

Close to impossible. Here are the key reasons why.

a) According to political scientist Wong Chin Huat, who is an astute observer of Malaysian politics, about 20% of Malays will vote for the government of the day (doesn't matter whether it's UMNO or Pakatan). If what Wong says is true, that whittle UMNO's support down to 40% of Malays.

b) Within that 40% there will be some diehards who will stick by UMNO no matter what. But also within that 40% will be some who -- after seeing the good that Pakatan has done -- will want to switch to voting for Pakatan. So what percentage of Malays are hardcore supporters, the ones who will stick with UMNO come hell or high water. What is that number? 30%? I think that's too generous. I'd put it at most at 20%.

Don't forget, everybody wants to be with the winner. And nobody wants anything to do with the loser. UMNO is welcome to be complacent and assume it still has 60% of Malay support and will be able to at least retain that if not improve upon it. Boy, is it in for a rude shock when GE15 comes along.

Tabung Harapan should be funded by GLCs, MNCs & rich people

It's great that Tabung Harapan has exceeded RM100 million. That's still a drop in the bucket when it comes to clearing our national debt of RM686.8 billion or RM1 trillion (depending on how you define the national debt). That's billion with a "b" and trillion with a "t". Even if Tabung Harapan eventually reaches RM1 billion, we've still got at least RM685.8 billion left to go.

This is not to say Tabung Harapan is a bad idea. In the aftermath of GE14, people were starting to set up crowdfunding initiatives to save the country. Who knows how many of those were scams and how many were for real. By setting up Tabung Harapan, there's a 100% certifiably government-approved fund you could bank money into if you want to contribute to the clearing of the national debt.

What Tabung Harapan should not expect is for ordinary, working stiff Malaysians to contribute much to it. Everyday Malaysians are having a tough enough time making ends meet. The ones who really should contribute are the GLCs, many of which are super profitable. As GLCs they should definitely do their part. Another group that should contribute significantly are MNCs, many of which are also very profitable. They should contribute to the fund. Lastly, there are also many high net worth Malaysians who could easily drop a million or two (or more) without a thought. They should be asked to do their part for the country.

Where in the past GLCs, MNCs and high net worth individuals would make "donations" to UMNO's leader (ostensibly strictly for party use only) today they can contribute to Tabung Harapan instead.

The only chance for UMNO

It doesn't seem possible for UMNO to make a comeback. Zahid Hamidi can engage in as much wishful thinking as he wants but UMNO will not be back in government anytime soon. Not in one or two or three election cycles. Perhaps not even in my lifetime.

The first thing that UMNO needs to do is to become an effective opposition. Nothing so far suggests that it can do that.

UMNO stalwarts like Nazri Aziz was fond of saying that the opposition (then, Pakatan) has never ruled the country so they have no clue how to do it. Which is not quite true because Pakatan ran a couple of states (Penang and Selangor) and they did a good job there.

In similar fashion, what can be said about UMNO is that it has never been in the opposition so it does not know how to be an effective one. That statement is only partially false (and partially true). It's false that it has never been in the opposition. It was in the opposition in Penang and Selangor. But it is true that it doesn't know how to be an effective one as it has done a poor job in both states.

If either Zahid or Ku Li wins the UMNO Presidency, don't expect any significant changes. Maybe a bit of cosmetic changes but nothing substantial. The only one who offers a progressive program for change is Khairy. This is not to say that he will be able to implement much or any of it. But at least he's saying the right things.

Saying the right things (as far as the country is concerned) might not win you votes in UMNO though. This is a party that's used to being the Big Brother, that has a Ketuanan Melayu mindset, that has feudalistic tendencies, that believes cash is king (which is why money politics is so rampant). This is not a party ripe for change. Rather it's a party that will resist change with all its might. So, good luck to KJ in trying to change UMNO (assuming he wins the presidency).

Although UMNO coming back to power seems like an impossibility, for the sake of discussion let's explore what it could do to claw its way back to power over the long run.

It needs to prove itself by being an effective opposition. That means providing real checks and balances to Pakatan (as opposed to simply providing knee-jerk criticism to everything Pakatan does). It means engaging in intelligent debate in Parliament. It means providing sound alternative solutions to the problems this country faces.

Is UMNO equipped to do any of that? Not in its current form.

Think about it. Who are UMNO's equivalents to Pakatan's Tony Pua, Rafizi Ramli and Maszlee Malik? Do they have a Syed Saddiq? No, they have a Jamal Yunos and a Papagomo.

To turn UMNO into an intelligent party, KJ will need to attract new blood. How on earth is he going to do that? If a bright, young Malay scholar (well read, sophisticated, idealistic) were to return to Malaysia and happened to be interested in politics, which option do you think this person would choose:
a) One of the Pakatan parties
b) UMNO

It's a no-brainer, folks. That's why KJ's transformation plan is a non-starter. And that's why we won't see UMNO in control of the federal government for a long, long time (if ever).

Gerakan makes the move

And so Gerakan has done it. It's left BN, leaving the coalition with only three surviving members: UMNO, MCA and MIC.

The move will make no difference at the Parliamentary level because Gerakan did not win a single federal seat in GE14. But psychologically it will make a pretty big impact. Sabah BN component parties were the first to jump ship. Then Sarawak BN component parties deserted BN en masse. Gerakan is the first major peninsula party to leave BN.

In response, Zahid Hamidi has mooted a rebranding of BN in the form of a new coalition. One can't help but wonder how it would be any different from the old BN other than having a new name. Would they invite PAS to join in?

If it did, out goes MCA and MIC. So an UMNO/PAS coalition it would be. Wow, that would sure win back the non-Malay/non-Muslim votes!

If it just includes MCA and MIC how is it any different from what it is the situation now? Perhaps a new understanding that all three are actually equal partners? That sure will go down well with the UMNO grassroots and leaders!

The dilemma UMNO and MCA/MIC face is almost insurmountable. They need each other, yet they are the cause of each other's downfall.

UMNO needs MCA/MIC to give a semblance of multiracialism to the coalition. Malaysia is a country where roughly 60% of the population is Malay/Muslim. No coalition that is based on one race only can possibly win a general election.

As for MCA and MIC, which have generally been abandoned by their own respective communities, they need Malay support in order to have any hope of winning any seats.

So, they need each other. At the same time they weigh each other down. UMNO leaders and supporters alike generally view the non-Malay component parties as burdens that UMNO has to carry. They were willing to bear that burden while the going was good but now when things are bad, they want to rid themselves of excess baggage.

Meanwhile, MCA and MIC's target voters generally view them as UMNO lapdogs. This is a perception that is hard to shake.

Will a rebranded BN change anything? Not a thing.

Why submit 3 names?

Why did PKR/Wan Azizah submit three names for the sultan to choose from, asks lawyer R Kengadharan?

In accordance to the constitution, the MB designate should be the one who commands the confidence of the majority of the state reps of the winning party/coalition. By right that should be one person not three.

As mentioned before, Pakatan submitted one name for PM and one name for AG. So why not do the same for Selangor MB?

There are probably three reasons for this.

i) There are factions within PKR which want different candidates. Wan Azizah wanted someone and Azmin Ali wanted someone else. The third one candidate was probably just a name they threw in there so there could be three names submitted.


ii) The sultan wanted more than one name. That was the case last time around and that's the case now.

iii) PKR wasn't willing to engage in a Battle Royale with the palace over this matter. The other parties, DAP, Amanah and Bersatu, which are all junior partners in the Selangor government, did not raise a fuss about this and accepted PKR's approach.

Also as mentioned before, Dr M would have taken a different approach and followed the constitution. He would have submitted just one name. (If you go by what legal experts are saying, what's happened in Perlis and Selangor is not in line with the constitution).

BN shadow cabinet a good idea but...

KJ says he will assemble a shadow cabinet if he becomes UMNO president. A shadow cabinet is a good idea. It's something Pakatan never did.

The reason wasn't that Pakatan didn't have the right people to fill the positions. The reason is that any shadow cabinet they unveiled would have been criticized to death by BN and used as scaremongering propaganda by BN.

Imagine if Lim Guan Eng had been named as finance minister in the Pakatan shadow cabinet. You can see UMNO going to town with that one. But imagine if they had named only Malays for key posts. MCA, MIC and Gerakan could then say: "You claim to be a meritocracy but you fill all the top positions with Malays".

So whatever they do, they will be criticized. If they put a non-Malay in a top post, they will be vilified by UMNO. If they fail to put a non-Malay in a top post, they will be vilified by MCA/MIC/Gerakan. So they decided not to name a shadow cabinet.

KJ won't have that luxury should he be elected UMNO president because he has committed to doing so. But he will face the same issues Pakatan faced when it was in the opposition.

Let's take the case of finance minister again. If he names a Malay, people will say: "More of the same... UMNO cannot see beyond race." If he names a non-Malay, people will say: "You see, he is copying Pakatan". Either way he gets whacked.

Welcome to the opposition, KJ!

Does the royalty have discretion in choosing PM/MB?

This question of whether the ruler of a state has discretion over whom he wants as MB is in the news because of what's happened in Perlis and Selangor.

In Perlis, the ruler made his choice despite the fact that none of BN's state reps supported that person. In Selangor, Pakatan's original preferred candidate was not chosen. Both cases are different although the principle involved is the same. It all hinges on whether the ruler has discretion over this matter.

It's similar to the case of whether the king has discretion over who the PM should be. When Pakatan won the general election, Pakatan put forth only one name: Dr M's, as their PM candidate. According to press reports, the king actually preferred Wan Azizah (his dislike of Dr M is well known) but she declined and Pakatan as a whole stuck to its guns. After some delay, Dr M was sworn in as PM.

Something similar happened with the AG candidate. All Pakatan component parties wanted Tommy Thomas and they submitted only his name. Apparently the king wanted more options but again Pakatan stuck to its guns and insisted on Thomas as their only choice. Again after some delay, Thomas was sworn in.

In Perlis, UMNO actually boycotted the swearing in of the rulers choice of MB to signal their protest. Afterwards, the state reps apologized to the ruler and subsequently seemed to accept his choice although some quarters in UMNO insists that the matter is going to be settled in the courts. It's not clear whether the legal case is being pursued. Most likely UMNO will throw in the towel on this one so as to avoid a clash with the ruler. This, despite the fact that UMNO actually has a 2/3 majority in that state.

In Selangor, there seems to be two rival factions within PKR. Wan Azizah seemed to be with the other component parties in wanting Idris Ahmad as MB while former MB Azmin Ali preferred Amirudin. In the end, Wan Azizah agreed to submit three names for the sultan to consider. The other parties didn't object and Amirudin was chosen. There's little that Idris can do despite earlier having support letters from all four component parties because three names were submitted for consideration.

If Pakatan as a whole had insisted on submitting just one name and the sultan refused to accept that candidate, it would have led to a constitutional crisis. If push came to shove, would the sultan have eventually given in or would Pakatan. We won't know because Pakatan obviously did give in.

However this whole issue of the role of a constitutional monarchy is far from resolved. At the federal level, the king averted a constitutional crisis by accepting Dr M and Thomas as PM and AG, respectively. In Perlis and Selangor it looks like a crisis was averted by the winning parties backing down on their demands.

The constitutionality of it all has not actually been tested because in all these cases, one party backed down. It should be noted however that all legal experts who have weighed in on this matter believe that in a constitutional monarchy, the ruler has to appoint the preferred candidate of the winning party.

No Battle Royale in the cards for Selangor

The issue of constitutional monarchy has been in the news a lot lately because of various things that have happened in the aftermath of GE14.

The king had delayed Dr M's swearing in as PM and he also delayed the swearing in of Dr M/Pakatan's choice of Attorney General. Neither of these things should have happened, Dr M has said. And he's right. In a constitutional monarchy, the ruler has to act on the advice of the PM.

The Perlis constitutional issue which seems to have died down a bit (but not totally resolved), has also put the spotlight on the role of constitutional ruler. Over there, the ruler chose as MB someone whom the Perlis BN do not want. Actually, the ruler should go with whoever the ruling party wants.

Although many anti-BN people were glad to see the Perlis ruler have his way over the BN state reps there, this has set a bad precedence. And it's coming to haunt Pakatan in Selangor. In the previous election, Pakatan submitted only one name for its choice of MB but the Sultan rejected that and asked that more than one name to be submitted. He ended up choosing Azmin Ali although Pakatan's first choice was Wan Azizah.

At the time, PKR (and the other parties in Pakatan) felt it did not have the political capital to pursue this matter to the end (which would have meant taking it to the courts). Pakatan had many fires to put out and waging a legal battle with the sultan wasn't exactly something it wanted to contend with. So it gave in. This too had set a bad precedent.

It's been widely reported that all factions wanted Idris Ahmad to be the new MB. But the sultan asked for more than one name and Pakatan has complied. He didn't choose Idris.

PKR probably made an assessment and concluded that it was still not time to engage in any Battle Royale with the royalty. The rest just went along because it's PKR's prerogative when it comes to the Selangor MB.

One thing's for sure though: Dr M would not have stood for this if the MB issue were up to Bersatu to decide. He would have just submitted one name, just as he had done with the AG situation.

And if asked by reporters why he did that, Dr M would have replied that he wanted to "save" the royalty by ensuring that they do the right thing instead of taking actions that would go against their role as constitutional monarchs.

He knows that the sultan actually does not actually have discretion in choosing an MB. If he were to give the sultan more than one name, he would be making it possible for the sultan to overstep his role as a constitutional ruler. By giving only one name, he would be making sure the sultan fulfills his constitutional role to affirm the winning coalition's choice.

Zahid, Ku Li or KJ for party president?

Becoming UMNO President will be his biggest failure. 

So, there are seven people in the running for president of UMNO. In reality only three actually matter: Zahid, Ku Li and KJ.

Whoever wins the presidency has their work cut out for them. UMNO has never been in the opposition at the federal level before. If its performance as the opposition at the state level (in Penang and Selangor) is any indication of its potential at the federal level, we are looking at a lacklustre to useless opposition in Parliament.

So far, what we've seen that passes for opposition checks and balances is just sour grapes sniping by BN leaders. Nothing particularly insightful or useful. Most of the time it's hypocritical cheap shots.

Take for example the griping that we heard from some BN leaders after it was announced that opposition MPs would also get some allocation of funds but only 1/5th of that of Pakatan MPs. The fact that there should be equal funding for all is a serious point but when these complaints come from BN MPs it just plain disingenuous. If they think unequal funding for MPs is fundamentally wrong as a matter of principle, why didn't they raise a stink about this when BN was in power and gave Pakatan MPs nothing. Don't talk about 1/5th or even 1/10th. They gave Pakatan MPs nothing. And now that they are getting less funding they complain that it's not fair.

Then again what can KJ do that's different? This is his message about restoring the "soul" of UMNO:

The soul I am referring to is a Malay party that is inclusive and includes all Malaysians. A party that opens itself to all levels of society and not only to those at the top, nobility, corporate leaders, and elites. A party for the common folk that takes care of their interest. A party that is not racist, sexist, timid and no longer deaf to the wishes of the people. A party that is magnanimous to other races and perhaps one day, BN can be rebuilt as a big house for all.  

All very good stuff. But why didn't he say this when his father-in-law, Pak Lah, was PM (and he was his advisor)? And why didn't he say this when Najib was PM (and he was a minister)? As Lim Kit Siang has often said about KJ's sudden openness and progressiveness: it's a case of "too little, too late".

But better late than never? Perhaps but probably not. UMNO is a "gone case" that's beyond redemption. As Dr M put it, UMNO has become a party that people despise. If KJ wants to repair UMNO, it will be a decades-long operation. He will be an old man before he can rejuvenate UMNO, if that's even possible.

Still, he is probably UMNO's best hope. Strategically, he's made a lot of bad moves and has bet on the wrong horse twice already (Pak Lah and Najib) but he's young, suave and smart. The total opposite of Zahid, who is antiquated, thuggish and just doesn't make much sense. In contrast to KJ, Zahid is the worst choice for UMNO.

He might very well get dragged into the 1MDB case. Don't forget, he was the one who infamously corroborated Najib's claim that the billions of ringgit in Najib's personal bank account came from an Arab donor. I'm sure the investigators will want to have a word or two with him on that. But even if he survives that, he his hardly a reformist kind of personality. He represents all that is wrong with UMNO. How can he be the one to reform the party?

How about Ku Li then? Well, he has a lot of experience in politics and he is free from the taint of 1MDB and other corruption scandals. He is a safe pair of hands to helm UMNO but he is hardly the reformist type. Anyone who wants to try to save UMNO -- in this political reality that we live in today where Pakatan (with all its ideals) is the government of the day -- will have to be brave and bold. But "brave" and "bold" are not two words you would commonly associate with Ku Li.

So that brings us back to KJ, UMNO's best option for the president's post. It's something that Dr M himself has said although KJ has dismissed it as sarcasm. Perhaps it wasn't sarcasm but wishful thinking on Dr M's part. We all know how much Dr M despises KJ. So, perhaps he is hoping KJ will become UMNO president for he whom the gods would destroy they first make him UMNO president.

KJ may be smart and charismatic but all the smarts and charisma in the world cannot save UMNO from eventually becoming a mosquito party. Some of its leaders are proud of the fact that it won 54 seats in Parliament. Let's see how long that number stays with them. East Malaysian politicians may be quicker to jump ship but nobody wants to go down with the ship. Now that UMNO is no longer funding their divisions, let's see how long these guys stick around.

To reform the party, he will need to bring in new blood. To reform and revive UMNO he needs fewer Ibrahim Alis and more Syed Saddiqs. But if there were some Syed Saddiq-types out there -- idealistic, intelligent, articulate -- thinking of entering politics, which party do you think he would join:

a) A party known for being racist, feudalistic, arrogant, corrupt and out of power.
b) Any of the component parties of Pakatan Harapan, which happens to also be the federal government.

This question alone will tell you why UMNO is indeed a "gone case".

How it could have been - Najib

After Pak Lah's disastrous first (and only) term as PM, Najib ousted him and took over as president of UMNO and PM of the country in 2009. Expectations of Najib were extremely low. He didn't have the clean reputation that Pak Lah had. He was also seen as an indecisive person, having sat on the fence during much of the UMNO civil war in 1987 that pit Dr M against Tengku Razaleigh -- only to place his bet on Dr M in the last moment.

With public expectations so low it was a golden opportunity for him to defy expectations and become a bold and decisive PM, one who would clean up and reform the old system he had inherited. By that time, he was already a wealthy man (he has subsequently claimed it was through inheritance... ahem). So, he didn't have to worry about money. He could have focused all his energies on improving the country and in the process, achieve what Pak Lah couldn't.

He was Western educated, spoke perfect English, and he knew exactly what a modern democracy should be. He could have put in place all the reforms that Pak Lah failed to do and therefore earn the trust, admiration and respect of the general public, which had so little expectations of him.

Even if he had achieved just half, or even a quarter, of the things that should have been done, it would have already exceeded everyone's expectations of him and he would have been a popular leader. But he did the exact opposite of what people wanted him to do.

Instead of clamping down on corruption, he gave us 1MDB. Instead of introducing more freedoms, people were being arrested for things they wrote on Facebook by an IGP who issued arrest orders via Twitter. People were being charged for dropping balloons and drawing cartoons. If that was not enough, he gave himself new emergency powers and gave us the Fake News Act. He and his wife went on international shopping sprees and presented us with the GST. It was all a big joke but it wasn't funny at all.

Yet despite all that, Najib thought until the very end that he was going to win GE14, and win big. Maybe even get back the 2/3rds majority for BN. Then he could proceed to decimate the opposition and finally silence all the pesky queries about 1MDB.

But this was not to be. He underestimated the intelligence of the people. He thought Malaysians were still stuck in the 1980s mindset. He thought Malaysians would tolerate and accept all kinds of government shenanigans as long as we weren't Somalia. As long as people weren't dying in the streets or rotting in the gutter, they won't rock the boat. They will be apathetic, play it safe and vote in BN -- just like they have been doing for the past six decades before. He thought wrong.

How it could have been - Pak Lah

When Pak Lah took over as PM in 2003, the nation breathed a collective sigh of relief. Enough of the Mahathir years! The people gave the man known as Mr Nice Guy and Mr Clean a massive electoral victory in 2004 where BN won an unprecedented 198 out of 220 seats in Parliament.

With a mandate like that and the collective goodwill of the people behind him, the sky was the limit. Granted, he wasn't the most dynamic politician. In fact, he was rather bland and laid back. But he has a smart son-in-law in the form of KJ, educated in Oxford no less, who could advise him. There was so much to look forward to, so much to be achieved.

Imagine if KJ had told him the following:

Pak Lah, you have a mandate like no one else. You have an excellent reputation of being Mr Clean. The public loves you. They are tired of the crony capitalism, media control and lack of civil liberties associated with the Mahathir years. You can change all that.

First thing you have to do is to rid the Cabinet of anyone who is not pro-reform. If they are likely to opposed your agenda for change, sack them and replace them with someone more progressive, open and intelligent. Sure, this would upset some UMNO warlords but who cares! Because of you BN now has 90% control of Parliament. Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!

All those good things that the opposition are shouting about -- let's co-opt those ideas and suck the oxygen out of their camp. Let's really really clamp down on corruption, let's introduce the Freedom of Information Act, let's get rid of repressive laws like the ISA, Sedition Act, Universities and University Colleges Act, Printing Presses and Publications Act, etc so that Malaysia can be a true democracy. Let's do all that in your first term alone.

If you do all that, Pak Lah, in one single term alone, you would have superseded Dr M's 22 years in office. Yes, he modernized Malaysia but at what cost? He ruled with an iron fist. Crony capitalism is rampant. There's no press freedom. You can change all that and become the greatest PM Malaysia has ever had.

If Pak Lah had done all that, the opposition would have died a natural death and Pak Lah would still be PM today.

But that was not to be. KJ was too busy shoring up his own power base to push through all these reforms. He figured with an overwhelming electoral victory like that, Pak Lah could coast through his first term and still be a popular prime minister. But he was wrong. Expectations were high and Pak Lah failed to fulfill any of the things society had expected of him. Coasting cost him the traditional 2/3rds majority in parliament that BN has always counted on (which allowed it to change the Constitution at will). It also cost him four states which fell to the opposition. And eventually it cost him the presidency of UMNO and his PM-ship.

The Mahathir-Anwar tag team is what M'sia needs

Dr M will be in charge for roughly two years during which time, he will push through aggressive prosecution of crimes, especially in regard to 1MDB, and reforms of key institutions. Shortly after winning the elections Dr M said heads will roll, and roll they have. With new people in place, the next step is to actually reform those institutions. There is no question that this will happen. The team around him -- which is made up of leaders from the various component parties of Pakatan Harapan -- will make sure that it does.

For sure, some of his old tendencies will crop up. Note how he wants to have a new Malaysian car. Note also how Lim Guan Eng quickly told him that public funds can't be used for this. The old Dr M would have bulldozed through his vision. Dr M 2.0 will be more circumspect.

So he is absolutely the right man for the job right now. And given his advanced age (93 this year) and the fact that there is an expectation that he won't stay on the job for more than two years, there is a great sense of urgency in what he's doing. He has two years to get things done and he will make every moment count.

Fully motivated, surrounded by a competent team, and enjoying the goodwill of the general public, there is every reason to believe a lot will be achieved in these two years. Hopefully, by the end of that period, we can put the 1MDB scandal behind us and key institutions would have been reformed.

Dr M can then truly retire knowing full well that he has completely revamped his legacy. Dr M 1.0 was a very divisive figure. Admired by some, despised by others. In his first term, he did a lot of good for the country but he also did a lot of bad. In fact, it can persuasively be argued that there was too much bad mixed in with the good, and that it was the system that he had architectured that allowed Najib to do what he did.

Dr M 2.0 is fixing that. Maybe not to the degree that civil society would like to see but that's where Anwar comes in. The era of Anwar will see even more reforms to open up society so that we can enjoy more freedoms because he is more of a reformer than Dr M is. And he is exactly what we will need when Dr M's time is over.

Dr M will fix the damage that has been done. Anwar will further improve the system. If you wake up every morning feeling today is going to be a better day than yesterday, you are not alone. We Malaysians have a very bright future ahead of us.

How will the Malay vote go in GE15?

Merdeka Center has found that while 95% and 70-75% of Indians voted for Pakatan, for the Malays the vote was split three ways. BN got 35-40%; PAS got 30-33%; Pakatan got 25-30%.

The natural question is how will the Malay vote be like in GE15? With PAS and BN now in the opposition does that mean that 65-73% of the vote will go to the opposition? Probably not.

Firstly, if BN/UMNO and PAS cooperate, that would alienate some voters in each camp. Some UMNO people will refuse to vote for PAS, while some PAS people would never vote for UMNO. Such voters, who are disgusted with the idea of UMNO and PAS cooperating will either not vote or they will vote for Pakatan.

Secondly, if political analyst Wong Chin Huat is correct, about 20% of Malays don't vote along party lines but rather, they support the government of the day. So if Pakatan got 25-30% and you add another 20% who in GE14 did not vote for Pakatan but now would (given that it is now the government of the day), you would have between 45-50% voting for Pakatan.

It's hard to say how many disillusioned UMNO/PAS supporters there would be but assuming that number is just 10%,  Pakatan would then enjoy a 55-60% support among the Malays.