Wednesday, July 22, 2020

Harapan should just prepare for GE15




With each passing day, it's becoming painfully obvious that the best option for Harapan is to prepare itself for GE15. Forget about doing a counter-coup against the backdoor government of Perikatan.

I know it's very tempting to want to do a counter-coup when Perikatan is just hanging by a tread. But where are you going to get the numbers from? Answer: Frogs.

If they can jump into your camp for now, they can jump into another camp when they get a better offer. Forget about dealing with frogs. Focus on GE15.

If nothing else, what Harapan has got going for itself is that it's more or less sorted out its seat allocations. DAP, PKR and Amanah each have got their seats carved out, as per GE14.

What different is that among themselves, they need to decide who will contest in Bersatu and Warisan seats.

Yes, they should contest wherever Bersatu and Warisan contests. The reason for contesting against Bersatu is obvious, it's now an opponent not an ally. While Dr M's faction, comprising 6 MPs might not be an opponent, they aren't committed allies either. The same can be said about Warisan, which is why Harapan would be fools not to contest in those seats and try to win them for itself.

If they give way to Bersatu and Warisan, who go on to win those seats, we will be back to status quo, with Shafie and Dr M using their leverage to block Anwar from becoming PM. Might as well contest against these parties, win a few seats and try to get enough to form a majority without the help of external parties.

This really is what Harapan should be focusing on instead of daydreaming about launching a counter-coup. Let Perikatan implode. Even if Perikatan manages to stay together until GE15, they won't be able to come to an agreement on seat allocations.

The reason for this has been well articulated in many places but in a nutshell, it is this: Bersatu, UMNO and PAS are all targeting the same demographic. None will want to budge an inch on seats that they consider theirs. And there are a lot of overlapping seats.

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

More spin from Dr M



Dr M says it was Lim Guan Eng who mooted that Shafie become PM. That may very well be true but it was clearly a suggestion. In fact, both DAP and Amanah said immediately after the meeting that this was a matter that needed to be discussed by Harapan (of which Dr M is not a member, nor is Shafie).

So, Harapan had a meeting and decided they would stick with Anwar instead. That's Harapan's prerogative. And it's the right move, by the way. Why have a coalition only to propose someone outside the coalition as your PM candidate? Doesn't make sense.

He goes on to say that though there were several MPs who were willing to join the opposition, they would not do so if Anwar was the PM candidate.

Well, Dr M has a problem too. There are 38 MPs (from PKR) who don't want him or Shafie to be PM. So how is he going to resolve that?

Lastly, he says: “When I stepped down (in February) and everyone was asked to state who they wanted, I should have been given full support by Harapan because they told me they supported me fully."

Yes, Harapan supported him fully as PM, but for Harapan, not as PM of a unity government whereby he could pick and choose whomever he wanted without consultation with others from Harapan. And he conveniently doesn't mention that when Harapan asked him to attend a meeting to discuss how to get back control of the government, he refused. That's when they decided, it had to be Anwar. 

Sunday, July 19, 2020

A microcosm of what will happen across the country



Gombak Umno, PAS won't work with Azmin:

1. Not surprising
2. Is a reflection of what will happen in other constituencies
3. UMNO, PAS and Bersatu will not be able to resolve seat allocations. The demographics they are each going after are almost the same.