Sunday, December 30, 2018

How to achieve stability in PH

There's no denying he played a key role in Harapan's victory in GE14

There are some analysts who claim that Dr M didn't play as big a role in GE14 as some people think he did. I totally disagree. It was Dr M who proved to be the tipping point. So it is true when he says Najib would still be in power if not for Bersatu joining Pakatan Harapan.

But what is also true is that Najib would still be in power if PKR were not part of PH. It is also true that Najib would still in power if DAP were not part of PH. Repeat that sentence with regard to Amanah and Warisan.

The reality is that the various component parties in PH all need each other to form the majority in parliament.

Is this a good thing? In some respects yes because there is some form of mutual assured destruction if any one party decides not to play nice with the others. This mutual assure destruction forces everyone to behave reasonably in order to preserve the coalition government.

But it doesn't make for a very stable government. Any single party could bring down the government should it decide to leave. Which means every single party is actually a kingmaker. A party full of kingmakers doesn't make for stability in the long run.

So what needs to happen for there to be more stability in PH? One scenario calls for PKR, DAP and Amanah to among themselves get at least 112 seats in Parliament. These parties could still continue to work with Bersatu and Warisan but crucially, they don't need them. If the likes of Bersatu and Warisan start to exhibit UMNO-like behaviour, for example, they could be booted out and the coalition government would still hold.

This is stability. And it is achievable in GE15. At last count this trio has 103 MPs among them. They just need another nine more than they've reached the magic 112 number. Very doable and desirable too as it would keep Bersatu in check and ensure it doesn't morph into UMNO 2.0.

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