Monday, December 10, 2018

The equilibrium in Pakatan Harapan

Some people are fearful that Pakatan Harapan could eventually turn into a BN-like scenario where you have one big monolithic Malay-based party dominating the rest. This concern was born out of the notion that Bersatu may open its doors to 40-over members of UMNO in order to bolster its ranks.

It's a little bit hard to keep track of the exact numbers of MPs each party has but in GE14, this is what each one got:

PKR: 47
DAP: 42
Bersatu: 13
Amanah: 11

(In East Malaysian Warisan got 8 and UPKO 1 but for this discussion let's focus on the peninsula).

Since the election there has been some party-hopping and from what I can tell, this is the current composition:

PKR: 50 (additional 3)
DAP: 42
Bersatu: 15 (additional 2)
Amanah: 11

The concern is that some have is this: If Bersatu takes in say, 40 UMNO members, it would then suddenly have 55 MPs, making it the most dominant party in the coalition. If PKR (which is nominally multi-racial but in reality predominantly Malay) joins hands with Bersatu, then you suddenly have a bloc that has 50 + 55 MPs or 105 MPs, which would suddenly make DAP's 42 look tiny in comparison.

One thing people must realize is that PKR and Bersatu are fierce rivals. If anything, PKR is closer to DAP than it would be to Bersatu. So, even if Bersatu has 55, there will be a PKR that is close behind at 50.

The other thing people must realize is that DAP is actually very close to Amanah. Added together, that block is 42 + 11 = 53, which is pretty close to 55.

So even if UMNO does get that influx of 40 UMNO MPs (which is doubtful, actually) and it grows to 55-strong, it will be counter-balanced by PKR's 50 and DAP + Amanah's 53.

If push comes to shove, PKR will side with DAP and Amanah and that pushes that block up to 103 versus Bersatu's 50.

Bottom line: There is no way Bersatu can dominate Pakatan the way UMNO dominated BN.

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