Bersatu, UMNO & PAS will still split the Malay vote

There is a belief among some political observers that Pakatan Harapan is doomed because whereas in GE14, the Malay votes were split; come GE15, the Malay votes won't be split anymore.

Malays in GE14 were split three ways among Bersatu, PAS and UMNO. Now that all three are working together, according to this thinking, there will be no more splitting of votes. All the Malay votes would go to whichever candidate Perikatan Nasional (PN) offers up.

Since UMNO had won 54, PAS 18 and Bersatu 13 (total = 85), the assumption by these political observers is that all 85 will now go to Perikatan.

The problem with this simplistic analysis is that it assumes that the Malay-Muslim demographic these three parties target is monolithic. It is not. When this demographic went to vote in GE14, the choice they had in front of them was not so much Bersatu, PAS or UMNO but actually pro-UMNO or anti-UMNO.

This binary choice would fundamentally still be the same come GE15, except that the pro-UMNO group would now have PN to vote for instead of BN. The anti-UMNO vote won't necessarily go to Bersatu or PAS anymore (because Bersatu and PAS are now with UMNO). That vote will instead go to Pakatan Harapan. With that in mind, let's work out the numbers, shall we?

Let's say UMNO has a very loyal following and manages to retain much of the 54 seats it won last time. What about the 18 seats that PAS got and 13 seats that Bersatu got?

For sure PN will win some of those seats but it will not win all. It might not even get half. The very electorate that had voted for PAS or Bersatu out of anger at UMNO will be disgusted by the fact that these parties are now in bed with UMNO. Such voters will not vote for PAS or Bersatu anymore.

But let's be generous in our assumption and say PN manages to get roughly half. Let's say they get 16 out of the 31 seats PAS and Bersatu had won last time. Assuming that UMNO retains all 54 (which is very generous indeed considering all the revelations about corruption that have since emerged), the total number of seats that PN would be able to muster is 54 + 16 = 70.

It's safe to assume that the three seats won by MIC + MCA will be wiped out because of non-Malay voter anger at these parties for backing three avowedly Ketuanan Melayu parties. But let us at the same time conservatively assume that GPS manages to retain all of its 18 seats. This is actually unlikely because some Sarawakian voters are bound to be upset that GPS is now working with PAS. But let us be generous in our assumption and say the number is 18 for GPS.

What's the total that we are looking at for PN? It's 70 + 18 = 88. Some might think that's a lucky number but it's not a great figure if you are looking to control Parliament.