Will MCA be the ninth (that's right, 9th) party to leave BN?
Four from Sabah have already left. Another four from Sarawak has just left.
How much longer will MCA, MIC and Gerakan stay on? Let's see.
Sharing what I discover and my thoughts on them.
Tuesday, June 12, 2018
Hancur... Part 2
Will MCA be the ninth (that's right, 9th) party to leave BN?
Four from Sabah have already left. Another four from Sarawak has just left.
How much longer will MCA, MIC and Gerakan stay on? Let's see.
Hancur... Part 1
The first of the fixed deposits in East Malaysia to go was Sabah. Enough BN state reps jumped ship to make it possible for Pakatan to control the state. It took a bit longer for BN reps in Sarawak to bail from the sinking ship that is BN but jump they did... and en masse.
The entire Sarawak BN has collapsed as PBB, SUPP, PRS and PDP have left BN to form a new alliance with a catchy acronym called "Gabungan Parti Sarawak" (GPS).
That doesn't mean GPS will join Pakatan (the Pakatan parties there oppose the GPS parties) but it does mean they are definitely out of BN. Most likely what will happen is GPS will try to forge a friendly relationship with Pakatan at the Federal level. In other words they have woken up to the new reality.
This development will have repercussions beyond Sarawak shores. In the coming weeks and months, we will probably see more defections in neighboring Sabah, for example. Why? Because nobody wants to be left on a sinking ship. Perhaps reality had not sunk in yet with some in Sabah BN but now there is no doubt which side they should be on.
The trickle effect will reach the Peninsula too. We already saw some movements in Perak which allowed Pakatan to control that state. What we will likely see happening in the near future is more and more state reps and MPs looking to switch camps simply because they don't want to be on the losing side.
As the old song goes, "Nobody knows you when you're down and out".
Monday, June 11, 2018
Two years, more or less...
Dr M has said he would be PM for more or less two years. Conspiracy theorists have jumped on this to speculate whether that means he would stay on for longer than two years. Now he has said he will serve for as long as people want him to serve. Conspiracy theorists everywhere are rejoicing because they think this means he's going to renege on his plan to handover the helms to Anwar in about two years' time.
The conspiracy theorists will persist despite Anwar himself saying that the time period for handover is not fixed. And it is only right that they have not fixed a specific date for the handover because there are many things to be done and it's hard to ascertain exactly when those key things can be completed.
There's a place and time for everything. Right now what the country needs is a leader like Dr M who will prosecute to the full extent all the people responsible for the 1MDB scandal. We need someone with the drive and tenacity to see through these prosecutions and a restructuring of key institutions. Dr M is the man for that.
Anwar is a consensus builder. By his own admission he is probably too compassionate or too "nice" to do what needs to be done right now. But he recognizes the important work that Dr M has to do right now so he is given him the space and time to do it.
He's not going to agree with everything Dr M does but unlike in the past, Dr M doesn't have a compliant Cabinet that will rubber stamp everything he does (as was the culture in BN). He has a Cabinet full of people from other parties. The PKR, DAP and Amanah leaders won't let him do things that they think are wrong.
Dr M's tenure as PM will be for tenable only if he has the support of the people in general and his allies in Pakatan in particular. He knows that. His Pakatan allies know that. And the people know that. So let the conspiracy theorists spin their stories. There's nothing to worry about on that front.
The conspiracy theorists will persist despite Anwar himself saying that the time period for handover is not fixed. And it is only right that they have not fixed a specific date for the handover because there are many things to be done and it's hard to ascertain exactly when those key things can be completed.
There's a place and time for everything. Right now what the country needs is a leader like Dr M who will prosecute to the full extent all the people responsible for the 1MDB scandal. We need someone with the drive and tenacity to see through these prosecutions and a restructuring of key institutions. Dr M is the man for that.
Anwar is a consensus builder. By his own admission he is probably too compassionate or too "nice" to do what needs to be done right now. But he recognizes the important work that Dr M has to do right now so he is given him the space and time to do it.
He's not going to agree with everything Dr M does but unlike in the past, Dr M doesn't have a compliant Cabinet that will rubber stamp everything he does (as was the culture in BN). He has a Cabinet full of people from other parties. The PKR, DAP and Amanah leaders won't let him do things that they think are wrong.
Dr M's tenure as PM will be for tenable only if he has the support of the people in general and his allies in Pakatan in particular. He knows that. His Pakatan allies know that. And the people know that. So let the conspiracy theorists spin their stories. There's nothing to worry about on that front.
Kul Li for UMNO Presidency?
Ku Li has always seen himself as PM material. Well, he could have had his shot had he thrown his lot behind Pakatan when they needed someone with gravitas to switch over. Turns out that someone was Dr M, always unpredictable even in his old age.
Ku Li, in contrast, is very predictable. He took a risk once, when he left UMNO to found Semangat 46 but once that venture failed, he went back to UMNO and has been conservative and predictable since.
Now, it looks like he might be contesting for the UMNO presidency. A few things immediately come to mind:
i) What the heck for? What is the point of being president of a down-and-out party that has lost the federal government and most of the states it used to control? If he wants to be PM this is obviously not the way to make it happen. As mentioned earlier, his one last shot came and went when he declined to throw his lot behind Pakatan. They would have welcomed him but he was too timid to make the leap.
ii) He won't be able to repair UMNO or restore BN which is probably going to break up (or as Wee Ka Siong astutely put it, BN only exists in name now). Ku Li may be a steady pair of hands, untainted by 1MDB and other corruption scandals, but he's not going to be able to revive UMNO (it's hard to imagine anybody can). UMNO/BN is currently too despised for it to be revived into a potent force anytime soon. We are looking multiple election cycles before that's even a remote possibility. So, it's a losing proposition.
iii) There's only downside for him, no upside. If he tries to revive UMNO/BN, he will fail spectacularly and that will be his legacy: the failure to revive his party. Perhaps this is why KJ doesn't want to go for the top post and seems to be gunning for the opposition leader post instead. He knows anyone who heads UMNO is bound to fail big time in GE15. Does Ku Li want to preside over the decimation of the party in the next polls? He will if he becomes the UMNO president.
Ku Li, in contrast, is very predictable. He took a risk once, when he left UMNO to found Semangat 46 but once that venture failed, he went back to UMNO and has been conservative and predictable since.
Now, it looks like he might be contesting for the UMNO presidency. A few things immediately come to mind:
i) What the heck for? What is the point of being president of a down-and-out party that has lost the federal government and most of the states it used to control? If he wants to be PM this is obviously not the way to make it happen. As mentioned earlier, his one last shot came and went when he declined to throw his lot behind Pakatan. They would have welcomed him but he was too timid to make the leap.
ii) He won't be able to repair UMNO or restore BN which is probably going to break up (or as Wee Ka Siong astutely put it, BN only exists in name now). Ku Li may be a steady pair of hands, untainted by 1MDB and other corruption scandals, but he's not going to be able to revive UMNO (it's hard to imagine anybody can). UMNO/BN is currently too despised for it to be revived into a potent force anytime soon. We are looking multiple election cycles before that's even a remote possibility. So, it's a losing proposition.
iii) There's only downside for him, no upside. If he tries to revive UMNO/BN, he will fail spectacularly and that will be his legacy: the failure to revive his party. Perhaps this is why KJ doesn't want to go for the top post and seems to be gunning for the opposition leader post instead. He knows anyone who heads UMNO is bound to fail big time in GE15. Does Ku Li want to preside over the decimation of the party in the next polls? He will if he becomes the UMNO president.
No to new national car
Dr M has a lot of goodwill on his side. People see him as the saviour who finally managed to free Malaysia of BN control after more than six decades of uninterrupted rule. But there's only so much leeway that goodwill will buy you. Building another national car is not something the public will go for and it's highly unlikely that PKR, DAP or Amanah would go for it too.
KJ, playing the role of the faithful opposition, actually has some good points when he says:
Some people might say, oh but Singapore car prices are just as high or even higher. That's true but the reason Singapore imposes extra charges on cars is that they want to control the number of vehicles on the island. That's not the reason why our car prices are high. Over here, it's to protect the national car.
Let's not have any more of that. Here's hoping that Dr M's remarks in Japan about a new national car was just an off-the-cuff remark. It's highly unlikely that this has been discussed at the Cabinet level. And if it does actually gets raised there, let's hope the other Cabinet members (and possibly including Muhyiddin) will highlight that this is not a good project to go into.
KJ, playing the role of the faithful opposition, actually has some good points when he says:
“Unless the project results in a fully electric car, I don't see any benefit to the people, the economy and the environment."A few generations of Malaysians have had to endure high car prices due to the high excise duty charged on other non-Malaysian car makers.
Some people might say, oh but Singapore car prices are just as high or even higher. That's true but the reason Singapore imposes extra charges on cars is that they want to control the number of vehicles on the island. That's not the reason why our car prices are high. Over here, it's to protect the national car.
Let's not have any more of that. Here's hoping that Dr M's remarks in Japan about a new national car was just an off-the-cuff remark. It's highly unlikely that this has been discussed at the Cabinet level. And if it does actually gets raised there, let's hope the other Cabinet members (and possibly including Muhyiddin) will highlight that this is not a good project to go into.
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