Tuesday, August 13, 2019

The two options PH parties have

It's clear by now that Pakatan Harapan, for all intents and purposes, is the Mahathir party. Just like how Trump has taken over the Republican party, Dr M has taken over PH.

Lynas extension, slow pace of investigation over Teoh Beng Hock and Pastor Koh cases, protection for Zakir Naik, introducing khat into the BM syllabus, establishing a third national car, Sedition Act still intact. All these things have Mahathir written all over them.

Do you think these are the kinds of things the other PH parties, especially DAP and PKR would want? Yet, nobody speaks out against them. Everybody's walking on eggshells for fear of upsetting Dr M.

But there is a price to be paid. The general public, and most notably the ones who voted for PH, notice what's going on. This is not what they voted for. Yet, the other PH parties are letting Dr M get his way, as if Bersatu were the dominant party like UMNO was in BN.

It is not. It is a mosquito party in comparison to DAP or PKR. And if you were to combine DAP and PKR, they would dwarf Bersatu. Yet, they all act as if Dr M's party controlled the majority.

DAP, in particular, has received the brunt of the backlash but PKR will get its share of criticism too if this situation continues. The longer they kowtow to Dr M, the bolder he gets when it comes to doing things his way.

So, DAP, PKR, Amanah and Warisan have to decide one of two options:
a) Collectively insist that Dr M stops making unilateral decisions and that any major policy must be discussed and agreed by the Presidential Council.
b) Continue to kowtow to him for the next year or so until such time he steps down (which he has said he would do).

Option (a) has its risk. It might upset Dr M enough for him to do something rash like break up the coalition, although that's unlikely.

Option (b) seems to be what all of them are adopting but it's an even riskier approach. Firstly, as mentioned earlier, this will only embolden Dr M to do whatever the heck he wants. Secondly, as time drags on, doing whatever he wants could very well include deciding to stay on for the full term.

Do they want to wait until there's a full-blown crisis within the coalition before they confront Dr M? There is a problem with his leadership style, which seems to have reverted back to him UMNO/BN approach of "my way or the highway". If they don't correct that now, it will probably be a whole lot harder later on.

Monday, August 12, 2019

Mahathirism has taken over Pakatan Harapan

Shortly after Pakatan Harapan took over the federal government, several PH leaders came out to say that Dr M has changed. That he is more consultative and doesn't do things unilaterally.

I have also pointed out that because Bersatu has much fewer MPs than PKR and DAP, it would be impossible for Dr M to have everything his way.

Well, slightly more than a year later we are seeing that Dr M is indeed doing things unilaterally. I was not wrong in talking about the numbers when it came to PH component parties but I didn't anticipate how timid the PH leaders would be.

Introducing khat into the BM syllabus, renewing Lynas' operating licence, having a 3rd national car -- do any of these sound like PH policies? No, they sound like Dr M policies. Yet, the majority of PH leaders remain silent on these matters.

Everyone of them is walking on eggshells, all afraid of upsetting Dr M. Their strategy it seems to be to wait out the two (or three) years that Dr M's supposed to be in power for. After that, when he is out of the scene, they can start to introduce the reforms promised and do the things they promised to do. That's the thinking anyway.

It's a pretty flawed way of thinking. The more they refuse to confront Dr M about his unilateral tendencies, the bolder he gets. At first, he might have thought he needed to care about what PKR or DAP thought about certain policies, especially controversial ones. Now, it doesn't look like he does anymore. And it will only get worse unless they step up and start opposing some of these ideas which are antithetical to what PH stands for.

These other component parties -- PKR, DAP, Amanah and Warisan -- need to let Dr M know that the support they give to him, which allows him to be the PM, can be taken away.

Thursday, August 08, 2019

Scoring lots of own-goals

It's bad enough that Pakatan Harapan has been slow in implementing promised reforms. To make matters worse, it's been scoring own goals.

Take for example the whole khat controversy. Why try to implement this controversial measure when there are many more things to take care of and worry about?

Then there is the whole brouhaha about unilateral conversions in Selangor? Why try to do this when it would be over-ruled by the Federal Court?

Dr M is fully capable of stopping all this own-goals but he doesn't seem to be doing it. Why not? Why is he allowing the PH government look like it's in chaos?

Maybe he's got some weird Machiavellian plan that we can't even fathom. We'll just have to wait and see.

Wednesday, August 07, 2019

Dr M should not exhaust electorate's goodwill

He's nearly spent up all the goodwill he earned from GE14.

Dr M earned himself a tremendous amount of goodwill when he helped the country get rid of a kleptocratic government led by Najib. Nobody thought they could really pull it off but Pakatan Harapan, led by Dr M, performed a miracle and caused a change in government for the first time in our nation's history.

For that, a lot of people were grateful and many, including myself, were willing to forgive him for the transgressions of the past. Yes, the main reason Najib was able to do what he did was thanks to the system established by Dr M. But Dr M helped us get rid of him, so for that we were willing to give him a second chance. A chance to redeem himself.

It was hoped that during the two years he was supposed to be in office (before handing the PM-ship over to Anwar), he would help usher in at least some reforms and more importantly, ensure the prosecution of 1MDB crimes.

One year has gone by while the court case involving Najib is ongoing, and there has been very little progress when it comes to reforms. Repressive laws like the Sedition Act are still in the books. People are still being charged for things they post on social media (as if Malaysians are so easily incited by the silly postings of some agent provocateurs).

It certainly looks like we will have to wait until Anwar becomes PM before we see the major reforms we expected when we voted to boot out the BN government. But will Anwar ever get to become PM?

It's been speculated for some time now that Dr M actually prefers Azmin to take over as PM but recent developments have pushed this notion further, so much so that Malaysiakini has made a point to end every story about Azmin with the statement that it is widely believed that Azmin is preferred. So what has been spoken about in hushed tones is now out in the public.

You have Azmin's faction in PKR saying publicly that they prefer Dr M to stay the whole term, which basically means Anwar doesn't get to become PM. You have some factions in Bersatu saying the same thing, including the education minister, who really has no business saying this. He knows full well what the agreement was before GE14 and he knows just as well that what the electorate voted for was Dr M as interim PM for two years and Anwar to take over. Yet, he goes and rocks the boat further by suggesting Dr M stay the full term.

Dr M of course has plausible deniability because he keeps saying he will keep his promise. He also promised prior to the election not to take in any UMNO frogs. His track record of keeping to his promises is not exactly stellar.

If Dr M wanted to quash all talk of him staying the full term, he could easily do so by publicly denouncing what Azmin's faction are saying about that. He can also instruct his Bersatu members to stop rocking the already shaky boat. But does he do that? No.

Perhaps this is just some mind game he is playing to screw with Anwar's head, to make sure he toes the line and stays a team player. In a way, it's working. You can see Anwar is walking on eggshells, careful not to piss off the old man.

DAP and Amanah are also walking on eggshells with none of its leaders commenting on this topic. Like Anwar, they are just waiting for the first two years to go by. But will the promised transition happen? Increasingly it looks like it won't.

Dr M likes to say two or three years. Why doesn't he give a precise date? He's also fond of saying, when the economy recovers. Who knows how long that will take!

He is purposely playing up the ambiguity, probably because he likes to have everyone walk on eggshells. This way nobody will challenge him on anything, such as the third national car project that nobody wants except him.

Being the crafty politician that he is, he might just surprise everyone and pass the baton to Anwar mid-way through the term (say 2.5 years)? Or, he might not. With Dr M, it's hard to tell.

If it's the former, people can forgive him for doing this a bit late. I think people might be willing to even accept three years instead of two, although this is stretching it a bit. But if he doesn't handover to Anwar after three years, he would have burned all the goodwill he's accumulated for the good deed he did in helping to kick out Najib. There is only so much goodwill to be spent.

In fact, he's been spending that goodwill like it's going out of style, what with the secretive meeting with the Opposition (which happens to be supporting the notion of him staying on as PM for the full term). If anything, the fact that the Opposition wants him for the full term should tell you that it's a bad idea.

I'll be the first to say that after the surprise victory in GE14, PH needed a person like Dr M to be the PM to guide the transition. He is the most experienced politician in the country and he was the steady hand that assured everyone that things will not be chaotic.

Things are stable and there's about a year left for him to tidy up whatever things he needs to get done before he is scheduled to step down. Dr M should not overstay his welcome.

He should not make the mistake of thinking people voted for PH because they wanted him to become the PM. They wanted Anwar but they needed him to make it happen because Anwar was in jail at the time. So, they settled for Dr M as an interim PM. That's what the people voted for.

Dr M would do well to remember that and start planning for the transition instead of playing mind games with Anwar and the electorate.

Monday, August 05, 2019

Azmin and his supporters are taking a huge gamble

Why is he supporting Azmin's stance on the PM handover issue? He's really rolling the dice with this one.
By openly supporting PAS's call for Dr M to serve a full term, Azmin has made it clear he doesn't want Anwar to become PM. His supporters, most notably Zuraida, have also openly called for this, knowing full well that was not the agreement going into GE14 and knowing full well that is not what the people voted for. Yet, they persist in trying to thwart Anwar's succession into the PM role.

It's one thing if a faction within PKR has decided to engage in an internecine war with the majority of the party, which does want Anwar to become PM. It's quite another when an leader from another party, in this case Maszlee, wades into the controversy and makes clear he also wants to thwart Anwar's plans to become PM.

If Anwar ever comes to power, these folks will be in the political wilderness. Even if Anwar is not the vengeful type, it's hard to imagine he would have in his Cabinet people who openly tried to prevent him from becoming PM.

So, will Anwar become PM? Well that's the plan although some people are trying their best to shake things up. It's hard to tell what Dr M is up to. He's had that mysterious meeting with the Opposition, which only serves to cause more gossip to fly. Every few days you have one of Azmin's supporters or Bersatu people calling for Dr M to stay on for the full term.

It's obvious they hope this will result in a groundswell of support from among the rakyat for Dr M to stay on until GE15. But this isn't going to happen. The majority of the public that voted out BN, didn't do so because they wanted Dr M back. They did so because they Anwar to become PM but it was necessary to have Dr M as an interim PM because Anwar was in jail then.

The understanding has always been that Anwar would take over Dr M after two years. And that was what the people voted for. Anybody that tries to change that is trying to deny the will of the people.

They grossly underestimate public opinion. Dr M is a safe pair of hands to guide the country through the transition period from 60 years of BN rule to a new PH government. He is also the man to ensure that the people behind the 1MDB scandal will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. But Dr M is not the man to bring about much-needed reforms.

Anwar is. And that's what the people voted for. People like Azmin, as skilled a political operator as he is, don't realize that. These people are in for a rude awakening.