How it could have been - Najib

After Pak Lah's disastrous first (and only) term as PM, Najib ousted him and took over as president of UMNO and PM of the country in 2009. Expectations of Najib were extremely low. He didn't have the clean reputation that Pak Lah had. He was also seen as an indecisive person, having sat on the fence during much of the UMNO civil war in 1987 that pit Dr M against Tengku Razaleigh -- only to place his bet on Dr M in the last moment.

With public expectations so low it was a golden opportunity for him to defy expectations and become a bold and decisive PM, one who would clean up and reform the old system he had inherited. By that time, he was already a wealthy man (he has subsequently claimed it was through inheritance... ahem). So, he didn't have to worry about money. He could have focused all his energies on improving the country and in the process, achieve what Pak Lah couldn't.

He was Western educated, spoke perfect English, and he knew exactly what a modern democracy should be. He could have put in place all the reforms that Pak Lah failed to do and therefore earn the trust, admiration and respect of the general public, which had so little expectations of him.

Even if he had achieved just half, or even a quarter, of the things that should have been done, it would have already exceeded everyone's expectations of him and he would have been a popular leader. But he did the exact opposite of what people wanted him to do.

Instead of clamping down on corruption, he gave us 1MDB. Instead of introducing more freedoms, people were being arrested for things they wrote on Facebook by an IGP who issued arrest orders via Twitter. People were being charged for dropping balloons and drawing cartoons. If that was not enough, he gave himself new emergency powers and gave us the Fake News Act. He and his wife went on international shopping sprees and presented us with the GST. It was all a big joke but it wasn't funny at all.

Yet despite all that, Najib thought until the very end that he was going to win GE14, and win big. Maybe even get back the 2/3rds majority for BN. Then he could proceed to decimate the opposition and finally silence all the pesky queries about 1MDB.

But this was not to be. He underestimated the intelligence of the people. He thought Malaysians were still stuck in the 1980s mindset. He thought Malaysians would tolerate and accept all kinds of government shenanigans as long as we weren't Somalia. As long as people weren't dying in the streets or rotting in the gutter, they won't rock the boat. They will be apathetic, play it safe and vote in BN -- just like they have been doing for the past six decades before. He thought wrong.

How it could have been - Pak Lah

When Pak Lah took over as PM in 2003, the nation breathed a collective sigh of relief. Enough of the Mahathir years! The people gave the man known as Mr Nice Guy and Mr Clean a massive electoral victory in 2004 where BN won an unprecedented 198 out of 220 seats in Parliament.

With a mandate like that and the collective goodwill of the people behind him, the sky was the limit. Granted, he wasn't the most dynamic politician. In fact, he was rather bland and laid back. But he has a smart son-in-law in the form of KJ, educated in Oxford no less, who could advise him. There was so much to look forward to, so much to be achieved.

Imagine if KJ had told him the following:

Pak Lah, you have a mandate like no one else. You have an excellent reputation of being Mr Clean. The public loves you. They are tired of the crony capitalism, media control and lack of civil liberties associated with the Mahathir years. You can change all that.

First thing you have to do is to rid the Cabinet of anyone who is not pro-reform. If they are likely to opposed your agenda for change, sack them and replace them with someone more progressive, open and intelligent. Sure, this would upset some UMNO warlords but who cares! Because of you BN now has 90% control of Parliament. Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!

All those good things that the opposition are shouting about -- let's co-opt those ideas and suck the oxygen out of their camp. Let's really really clamp down on corruption, let's introduce the Freedom of Information Act, let's get rid of repressive laws like the ISA, Sedition Act, Universities and University Colleges Act, Printing Presses and Publications Act, etc so that Malaysia can be a true democracy. Let's do all that in your first term alone.

If you do all that, Pak Lah, in one single term alone, you would have superseded Dr M's 22 years in office. Yes, he modernized Malaysia but at what cost? He ruled with an iron fist. Crony capitalism is rampant. There's no press freedom. You can change all that and become the greatest PM Malaysia has ever had.

If Pak Lah had done all that, the opposition would have died a natural death and Pak Lah would still be PM today.

But that was not to be. KJ was too busy shoring up his own power base to push through all these reforms. He figured with an overwhelming electoral victory like that, Pak Lah could coast through his first term and still be a popular prime minister. But he was wrong. Expectations were high and Pak Lah failed to fulfill any of the things society had expected of him. Coasting cost him the traditional 2/3rds majority in parliament that BN has always counted on (which allowed it to change the Constitution at will). It also cost him four states which fell to the opposition. And eventually it cost him the presidency of UMNO and his PM-ship.

The Mahathir-Anwar tag team is what M'sia needs

Dr M will be in charge for roughly two years during which time, he will push through aggressive prosecution of crimes, especially in regard to 1MDB, and reforms of key institutions. Shortly after winning the elections Dr M said heads will roll, and roll they have. With new people in place, the next step is to actually reform those institutions. There is no question that this will happen. The team around him -- which is made up of leaders from the various component parties of Pakatan Harapan -- will make sure that it does.

For sure, some of his old tendencies will crop up. Note how he wants to have a new Malaysian car. Note also how Lim Guan Eng quickly told him that public funds can't be used for this. The old Dr M would have bulldozed through his vision. Dr M 2.0 will be more circumspect.

So he is absolutely the right man for the job right now. And given his advanced age (93 this year) and the fact that there is an expectation that he won't stay on the job for more than two years, there is a great sense of urgency in what he's doing. He has two years to get things done and he will make every moment count.

Fully motivated, surrounded by a competent team, and enjoying the goodwill of the general public, there is every reason to believe a lot will be achieved in these two years. Hopefully, by the end of that period, we can put the 1MDB scandal behind us and key institutions would have been reformed.

Dr M can then truly retire knowing full well that he has completely revamped his legacy. Dr M 1.0 was a very divisive figure. Admired by some, despised by others. In his first term, he did a lot of good for the country but he also did a lot of bad. In fact, it can persuasively be argued that there was too much bad mixed in with the good, and that it was the system that he had architectured that allowed Najib to do what he did.

Dr M 2.0 is fixing that. Maybe not to the degree that civil society would like to see but that's where Anwar comes in. The era of Anwar will see even more reforms to open up society so that we can enjoy more freedoms because he is more of a reformer than Dr M is. And he is exactly what we will need when Dr M's time is over.

Dr M will fix the damage that has been done. Anwar will further improve the system. If you wake up every morning feeling today is going to be a better day than yesterday, you are not alone. We Malaysians have a very bright future ahead of us.

How will the Malay vote go in GE15?

Merdeka Center has found that while 95% and 70-75% of Indians voted for Pakatan, for the Malays the vote was split three ways. BN got 35-40%; PAS got 30-33%; Pakatan got 25-30%.

The natural question is how will the Malay vote be like in GE15? With PAS and BN now in the opposition does that mean that 65-73% of the vote will go to the opposition? Probably not.

Firstly, if BN/UMNO and PAS cooperate, that would alienate some voters in each camp. Some UMNO people will refuse to vote for PAS, while some PAS people would never vote for UMNO. Such voters, who are disgusted with the idea of UMNO and PAS cooperating will either not vote or they will vote for Pakatan.

Secondly, if political analyst Wong Chin Huat is correct, about 20% of Malays don't vote along party lines but rather, they support the government of the day. So if Pakatan got 25-30% and you add another 20% who in GE14 did not vote for Pakatan but now would (given that it is now the government of the day), you would have between 45-50% voting for Pakatan.

It's hard to say how many disillusioned UMNO/PAS supporters there would be but assuming that number is just 10%,  Pakatan would then enjoy a 55-60% support among the Malays.

Not easy for The Malaysian Insight to charge for content

Malaysiakini is an anomaly. It is probably the only news organization in Malaysia that can charge for content.

Of course other media outlets -- mainstream and alternative -- would like to do so as well. But they can't because the public is too spoiled on free content for so long now. It's impossible for them to put up a paywall.

Well, The Malaysian Insight is going to give it a shot. Starting July 1, it will charge for access to its content.

I'm afraid it will probably fail to get enough subscribers to make ends meet. This has nothing to do with the quality of its content, which is quite good. It has everything to do with the mindset of Malaysian readers who are used to free content. No other content provider charges for access, other than Malaysiakini.

So what makes Mkini so special? Malaysiakini has got one thing that no other publication has -- the goodwill and support of civil society. As Anwar himself put it:

“At a time when we had massive restrictions, where the media was nothing but incessant propaganda, Malaysiakini was there."

Malaysiakini has been prosecuted, persecuted, had its office raided but it kept on reporting alternative political news and views that mainstream media was not reporting. It imposed a paywall pretty early on and at first the take up rate was not great but over time, more and more people paid for access because they appreciated what Malaysiakini was doing.

Today, because of its huge traffic, it's also able to get quite a lot of advertising. So, Malaysiakini has got paid subscription and advertising going for it. That's how it survives.

The Malaysian Insight is a good read, for sure. And sometimes it even gets scoops that Malaysiakini didn't have. For example, it was the first to report about the Tommy Thomas issue. But unless it can consistently get scoops like that, I don't think many people will pay for access. It doesn't enjoy the special goodwill that people have for Malaysiakini. So people will ask themselves whether the news they can get from TMI is so unique, so special, so exclusive that they have to pay for it. The answer will inevitably be no. Whatever TMI reports, it's just a matter of time before other media outlets (namely Malaysiakini) picks up on it too. That makes it hard for it to charge.

Can it survive on advertising? Possibly if it attract a ton of traffic. Like I said, it's a pretty good read so maybe it will be able to do this. But the paywall won't work.