Dr M, Muhyiddin & Anwar's comments on UMNO

UMNO is going to collapse, says Dr M.

Unity government with UMNO is unacceptable, says Muhyiddin.

Unity government with UMNO is not relevant (because it has not been proposed), says Anwar.

Do you see the difference between what Dr M/Muhyiddin is saying and what Anwar is saying? The former basically condemns UMNO (and rightly so) while the latter is some wishy-washy statement.

First of all, let's state the obvious. Zahid  Hamidi's statement about UMNO forming a unity government with Pakatan is out-of-this world crazy. Why in the world would Pakatan (which won the election) want to form a unity government with the losing party that's now a shadow of its former self.

It's not as if Pakatan was a few seats short of a majority and needed UMNO's numbers to form a government. There is absolutely nothing Pakatan needs from UMNO. It doesn't need its MPs to form a government, it's not like UMNO  is brimming with talent that Pakatan could use and guess what, UMNO's got no money now that it's out of power and its bank accounts are being frozen due to the 1MDB scandal.

So, I ask again the obvious: Why in the world would Pakatan want to have anything to do with UMNO?

And why is Anwar being so wishy-washy about it? Well, you can call Anwar many things but he's not stupid. Perhaps he's just just toying around with UMNO  to torture them. Make them actually think this ridiculous unity-government-with-UMNO thing actually has a chance.

That's the only explanation that makes any sense.

Twin by election should be wake up call for UMNO & MCA

Massive victory for Pakatan in Balakong.

So, Pakatan has won Balakong and Seri Setia despite PAS campaigning for MCA (stranger things have happened) in the former and UMNO making way for PAS in the latter (this was not so unexpected).

In the case of Seri Setia, PAS managed to narrow Pakatan's margin of victory. But is that something to be happy about for PAS or BN? Previously it was a four-cornered fight. Today it's one to one and it was a clear victory for Pakatan despite UMNO and PAS working closely together.

In the case of Balakong, Pakatan had a resounding victory of 22,508 over 3,975 votes. If there's any consolation for MCA, it's that it did not lose its deposit (in GE14 it did). Wow, imagine MCA officials consoling each other, "Hey, we didn't do so bad.... at least we are able to get our deposit back."

If before this, UMNO and MCA (and by extension MIC) think there's any way they can get back to power anytime soon, they should be disabused of that notion by now. They will be out of power for decades and might possibly never come back to power. That doesn't mean Pakatan will forever be the government but whatever opposition manages to take over in the future -- it won't be in the form of BN as we know it. And it won't be in the form of UMNO, PAS, MCA and MIC (actually that combination will surely kill all of its chances).

UMNO might try to console itself by saying it still has quite a lot of Members of Parliament. True. But watch that whittle away due to defections over time and especially in GE14. We are looking at a wipeout.

MCA is already pretty much wiped out save for one Member of Parliament. But it should understand by now that it is throughout and utterly rejected by the Chinese -- the very people it's supposed to represent.

It doesn't take a political scientist to tell you what MCA's chief problem is. It is seen as UMNO's lapdog. That was that case before the elections. It was the case during the elections and it's still the case now.

MCA tried contesting under its own flag but what use is that? People still know it's under UMNO thumb. So whether they use their own flag or BN flag, it doesn't matter.

The twin victory was important. It's the proverbial final nail in the coffin of BN.

Why it's important for Rafizi to win PKR deputy presidential election

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It's not surprising that Azmin Ali has rejected the idea of a debate between him and Rafizi ahead of the PKR deputy presidential election.

Rafizi is an intellectual and a skilled debater. You can see his performance against Khairy Jamaluddin and see what a good orator he is.

Some people don't like Rafizi because they see him as a non-team player. He does not hesitate to raise a ruckus even though it upsets certain people within his party and the coalition. In contrast, Azmin is a smooth operator who knows how to play the game and secure power. He even became MB of Selangor despite his own party preferring Wan Azizah to play that role (the Selangor Palace preferred him, however). And now he seems to be favored by Dr M, who has tapped him to become Economic Affairs Minister and even has a seat on the board of Khazanah. That's how smooth he is.

Conspiracy theorists say that Dr M is propping him up as a counterbalance against Anwar and that eventually he would become Dr M's successor. While it's hard to imagine this actually being the case given that not only PKR but DAP and Amanah also want Anwar to become the next PM, it must be said that Dr M's elevation of Azmin's status by giving him the twin prestigious roles of Economics Minister and Khazanah board member does raise eyebrows a bit. What's more likely though is that Dr M, in his wily ways, wants to check some of Anwar's clout, that's all.

If Azmin is Dr M's blue-eyed boy, it probably makes sense that PKR elects someone like Rafizi to be its deputy president. It's also useful for Pakatan as a whole to have someone who is willing to ruffle some feathers and voice out some inconvenient truths.

What can UMNO do without a war chest?

It's staggering thinking about the amount of money UMNO/BN use to spend on the election. UMNO claims for example that the RM116.7 million in cash found in Najib's apartments belongs to the party and that it was to be used for the election.

Now we heard that security guards at the PM Department took some RM3.5 million in cash that was meant to be used for the elections.

How much more money was there that was used for the election, we don't know. Whatever it is, it's a lot.

Now that UMNO/BN is no longer in power and therefore no longer has the means to create a war chest for elections, how the heck is it going to effectively contest in elections in the future?

Former opposition parties like DAP are used to be cash-strapped. I don't know if it's still the case now but its elected reps used to have to donate a portion of their salaries to the party just so that there are funds to run the party. They run their election campaigns on a shoestring budget.

In contrast, UMNO is used to splashing hundreds of millions of ringgit to run its election campaigns. Now that the gravy train has stopped running, what can it do? How can it function as before? The answer is that it can't. This is why there is no election comeback possibilities for UMNO for the foreseeable future. 

Does the 100-Days matter?

When  you are campaigning, you need to make your message clear and simple for everyone to understand. Creating a 100-Day Manifesto is a one good way to do that. It sets out clearly and simply what you want to achieve for the rakyat if they vote you into power, and it sets a time limit for those things to be achieved.

Why 100 days and not 99 days or 101 days or 75 days or 125 days etc, etc? Why 100? Because it's a nice round figure that sounds catchy and easy for any voter to grasp.

If you are a political watcher of any sort, you will know that politicians will make promises that they cannot keep. In some cases, this means promises delayed. In other cases, it means promises unfulfilled. That's true of politicians overseas and it's true here too. It's to be expected. And so it is with the Pakatan 100-Day Manifesto.

What's important is to see which promises are not being implemented and what is the reason for its delay or non-implementation.

Let's take the case of GST. Pakatan had campaigned heavily on removing GST should it come to power. This message resonated strongly with voters, many of whom felt the pinch because of the 6% tax.

Getting rid of the GST is one promise Pakatan cannot fail to do. It is an absolute must-do. And that is why even though there were some early indications that it might take some time to actually dismantle it, Dr M ordered that GST be effectively removed immediately by bringing the GST rate down to 0%.

Technically bringing it down to 0% is not the same as dismantling it. But the practical effect of it on consumers is the same as it being abolished. So the people are happy. Pakatan knew it absolutely must get rid of GST and it found a way to effectively do so. Immediately.

Another thing that Pakatan needed to do immediately was to investigate scandals, in particular the 1MDB fiasco. In the manifesto it said it would set up a Royal Commission of Inquiry (RCI) into such scandals. So far no RCI has been set up yet but does it really matter? Does anyone seriously think that investigations into 1MDB-related crimes are not being taken seriously or given enough attention. Yes, technically you are not exactly fulfilling the manifesto if you don't set up an RCI (as stated in the manifesto) but what the rakyat wanted is for the culprits behind these scandals be brought to justice. And that is ongoing. Nobody's going to complain about this one.

Something that is being delayed is the promise to standardize minimum wages across the country. That probably won't happen within 100 days. Is it good to have standardized minimum wages? Yes. Will Pakatan eventually implement it? There's no reason to doubt that. But it probably won't happen exactly within 100 days. Whether it takes 101 days or 110 days or 150 days or more, as long as there is a genuine commitment to see it through within a reasonable amount of time (not 1000 days!) I think the rakyat will forgive the delay.

And the same goes for the rest of the manifesto. The question is: Will there be a walk back of the promises. So far there's no indication that Pakatan plans to renege on any of the promises. But even if it were to do so on one or two items, it's important to look at whatever reasons they give for it and to assess whether it's a reasonable and acceptable argument. Perhaps there's some new developments that make it impossible to fulfill certain promises. Maybe there are better alternatives than what was promised. Or maybe it's a totally flimsy or ridiculous reason that they offer. We need to assess each situation and decide whether we feel Pakatan has been the right choice.

The alternative is of course to go back to BN or whatever remains of BN. Or simply to UMNO. Or PAS. Does anybody want that?