Dr M's & Anwar's choices

Perikatan is hanging by a thread. With just a one MP majority in Parliament, it could crumble any time. But is the Opposition united enough to form a credible coalition government to take over, should this happen? Right now, it doesn't look like it.

For Dr M, the choice is whether to accept Anwar as the next PM or to let Muhyiddin continue as PM. Neither option is ideal or desirable for Dr M but he has no choice. It's down to which the least worst option.

If Perikatan is as horrible as he says it is, then the answer is obvious: he must pick Anwar over Muhyiddin. But for Dr M, that's actually a really hard choice although to most supporters of Harapan, the right choice is obvious.

For Anwar, the choice is either accepting Dr M as the next PM or living with the fact that Muhyiddin will be the PM until GE15 (assuming Perikatan doesn't implode first).

From a strategic standpoint, his choice is obvious too. If Dr M is not willing to budge and is not prepared to accept Anwar as the next PM, there is no reason for Anwar to participate in the toppling of Perikatan. Why should he? Just to make Dr M the PM again?

It's much better that he let Muhyiddin continue to be PM. Already, you can see Perikatan imploding day by day. The infighting will only worsen not improve as the election draws closer. After the Covid-19 pandemic ravages our economy, Muhyiddin won't be a very popular PM at all. This sets the scene for a major Harapan victory in three years' time, with him at the helm.

Anwar's choice is obvious if Dr M does not accept him as the next PM. Just let the status quo be.

Mahathir has to choose: Anwar or Muhyiddin as PM

Dr M had a meeting with his strategic partners in the Opposition, minus PKR, who didn't attend the meeting.

With Sri Gading MP Shahruddin Salleh quitting Perikatan, Muhyiddin now has a majority of one in Parliament. It's probably just a matter of time before another one crosses over and then it's a hung Parliament, which could lead to snap polls but will more likely lead to furious rounds of horsetrading on both sides.

There is plenty of speculation that Dr M might be able to convince the GPS coalition in Sarawak to join him. Theoretically, that could give Dr M's coalition up to 128 MPs (the current Opposition has 110 and GPS has 18).

At 128, that's a pretty strong position but there's only one problem for Dr M: It's not a given that PKR is on board. Without PKR, that's 39 MPs gone, leaving Dr M's coalition with 89 (that's assuming GPS is on board). In short, there is no way Dr M can cobble together a coalition government without PKR's involvement.

PKR is playing it right by signalling that it is not necessary on board with Dr M's grand scheme to topple Perikatan. What's the point of doing so if all it means is Dr M is PM again. After all that's happened there is no reason for PKR to want that. It might as well wait for GE15 to happen and so that Harapan can win the election outright, without the help of Dr M or Warisan or GPS or anybody that's not in Harapan. PKR, DAP and Amanah could do it alone. And they should. Otherwise, they will always be held hostage by kingmakers who will threaten to leave if they don't get things their way.

What Anwar and gang are basically telling the rest is: "You may have the numbers if you assume PKR is in there with you but don't take that for granted."

If they want PKR in, they have to agree to PKR's (and actually Harapan's) choice of PM: which is Anwar. Anything short of that, they shouldn't agree. They can afford to wait another three years for GE15 to happen. Mahathir can't. He's already 95. It's not exactly like he's got time on his side.

If he wants to see Perikatan toppled, he's got to make concessions, chief of which is that should this new coalition topple Perikatan, the person to be PM is Anwar. This would be a test of how important he think it is to topple Muhyiddin and gang, who he accuses of conspiring with crooks. If he really cares about that, he should accept Anwar as PM.

Ultimately, Mahathir has to choose: Anwar as PM or Muhyiddin. He might not like either but what's the least worst option? That is the question.

There's no taking over the government if PKR is not on board

There's a lot of talk about Harapan having the numbers to topple Muhyiddin's government. That might or might not be true but one thing's certain, even if Dr M has the support of Warisan, DAP and Amanah (as has been speculated), without PKR, they can't possibly have the numbers.

If Dr M's intent is for him to be PM again, PKR isn't likely to support the overthrow. Why should they... just for Dr M to be PM again? Doesn't make sense. If overthrowing Perikatan is so important to Dr M, he should agree that should the change of government happen, it's Anwar who will become PM and he would only serve as an advisor or senior minister, not the PM.

Anything short of that, PKR should not agree. Frankly, neither should DAP or Amanah. After all, it was Dr M's actions and inaction that ultimately led to the downfall of the Harapan government. He purposely propped up Azmin just because he was a rival to Anwar. And at the very least, he tolerated (if not encouraged) Muhyiddin and Azmin's negotiations with UMNO and PAS. He took in UMNO frogs (some 13 of them, who ended jumping back). And in the end, it was his party, Bersatu that broke away from Harapan to form Perikatan.

Why should they back him as PM again? They should back Anwar. We don't know that they don't. While it's been speculated that they support Dr M as PM we don't know that for a fact. Maybe they are telling him, "We will support the overthrow of Perikatan but we want Anwar as PM." We just don't know.

But we do know PKR doesn't want to play ball unless it has some things its way. No longer will it allow Dr M to dictate things in Harapan. Dr M and his gang aren't even in Harapan anymore. They are the "plus" in Harapan Plus.

Will Anwar and gang give in for the sake of overthrowing Perikatan? I hope they don't. They should stand firm. Anwar is the Opposition leader. He should be the PM if there is a change in government, not Dr M, who had his chance but screwed it up. Big time.

Is there a counter-Sheraton Move in the works?

Salahuddin Ayub claims Harapan already has the numbers to topple Muhyiddin's government. Does Harapan really have the numbers? Or is this just psych warfare?

If it's just psych warfare why bother? The answer is that it works. When a coalition of rivals has razor-thin majority of only two MPs, everybody who has thrown their lot with that coalition has to be constantly concerned about crossovers. If just a small handful of MPs defect, the Perikatan government collapses and Harapan takes over.

As such, Perikatan MPs have to constantly think about whether it makes more sense for them to stay put of jump ship. They don't want to be left behind once the frogs start jumping. And believe me, jump they shall, the moment there's any inkling that Harapan will be taking over.

A lot of MPs have bet their political careers on Perikatan being able to last as the government of the day. They have a lot to lose if Perikatan is toppled. To them, their only chance of avoiding being thrown into the political wilderness is to jump ship before anyone else does and say to Harapan, "You see, I was willing to jump over to you guys way before anyone else," in the hopes that Harapan will forgive and forget.

So, Perikatan MPs can't possibly sleep well these days. They know that if Harapan should be able to regain power, their goose is cooked.

Harapan MPs have got nothing to lose anymore. They've already been betrayed and backstabbed. They might as well continue with the psych warfare. And they will. Watch it intensify in the days ahead.

What happens if some PN MPs jump ship?

Speculation is rife that the ground is fast shifting under Muhyiddin's feet. With just a tiny majority (113 MPs), all it takes is for two MPs to jump ship and his government falls. Well, technically, it'd be a hung Parliament with 111 on each side.

On paper, that could mean a snap election but before that happens, you can be sure there will be a lot of horsetrading and a lot of jumping ship here and there. It won't stay 111 for long.

Actually it doesn't even take two people to get things moving. Even if one person jumps ship, it already forces everyone to start making their political calculations. For those in Perikatan, they will have to think: "Do I stick with PN or do I go where the momentum is?" If they feel many others are jumping over to the Opposition, they too will jump ship in their belief that the Opposition will soon become the government.

The question is, is Harapan as eager to take in frogs as they were last time (to be fair, only Bersatu took in a lot of frogs. PKR took in a small handful. Amanah was open to it. DAP steadfastly opposed it). I believe today, if some frogs say they want to jump over, the message to them would be: You are welcome to join the Opposition but you won't be part of Harapan. You will be an independent MP who is supportive of Harapan.

That would be the smart thing to do. And no, Harapan leaders are not idiots. They know what it's like dealing with frogs. You can't trust them. But if they want to jump your way, you might as well make full use of them.

So, are there some MPs who are willing to change sides? UMNO Supreme Council Member Mohd Razlan Rafii said the shifting of allegiance by a number of Bersatu MPs to Dr M won't guarantee his return as prime minister.

"Even the shift of four to five Bersatu MPs to Mahathir's team does not guarantee he can become prime minister again," Razlan said in a statement.

That statement is interesting? Is he referring to the four of five MPs already on Dr M's side or is he talking about four or five additional MPs moving over? Not sure. But he is right in saying that even if Harapan is somehow able to form the majority, there is no guarantee that Dr M will be their candidate for PM. After all, the Opposition leader is Anwar, not Dr M.

Whether Harapan really has 129 MPs or just enough to form the majority, nobody knows, except the top Harapan leadership. But there's no doubt that a psych war is going on and PN people are getting spooked.

They are more than fully aware that their majority is wafer thin. It can crumble any time. All it takes is for one MP to be unhappy with his lot and the floodgates will open. Then it's a free-for-all with everybody trying to figure out how to not bet on the wrong horse.