Sunday, June 24, 2018

Gerakan makes the move

And so Gerakan has done it. It's left BN, leaving the coalition with only three surviving members: UMNO, MCA and MIC.

The move will make no difference at the Parliamentary level because Gerakan did not win a single federal seat in GE14. But psychologically it will make a pretty big impact. Sabah BN component parties were the first to jump ship. Then Sarawak BN component parties deserted BN en masse. Gerakan is the first major peninsula party to leave BN.

In response, Zahid Hamidi has mooted a rebranding of BN in the form of a new coalition. One can't help but wonder how it would be any different from the old BN other than having a new name. Would they invite PAS to join in?

If it did, out goes MCA and MIC. So an UMNO/PAS coalition it would be. Wow, that would sure win back the non-Malay/non-Muslim votes!

If it just includes MCA and MIC how is it any different from what it is the situation now? Perhaps a new understanding that all three are actually equal partners? That sure will go down well with the UMNO grassroots and leaders!

The dilemma UMNO and MCA/MIC face is almost insurmountable. They need each other, yet they are the cause of each other's downfall.

UMNO needs MCA/MIC to give a semblance of multiracialism to the coalition. Malaysia is a country where roughly 60% of the population is Malay/Muslim. No coalition that is based on one race only can possibly win a general election.

As for MCA and MIC, which have generally been abandoned by their own respective communities, they need Malay support in order to have any hope of winning any seats.

So, they need each other. At the same time they weigh each other down. UMNO leaders and supporters alike generally view the non-Malay component parties as burdens that UMNO has to carry. They were willing to bear that burden while the going was good but now when things are bad, they want to rid themselves of excess baggage.

Meanwhile, MCA and MIC's target voters generally view them as UMNO lapdogs. This is a perception that is hard to shake.

Will a rebranded BN change anything? Not a thing.

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