Monday, March 30, 2020

Covid-19: Better to over-prepare

We have enough beds even if there's a spike in Covid-19 new infections

The government has prepared 19,200 beds just in case new infections go into overload. Will we need that many beds? Hopefully not. But with Covid-19, it's always better to over-prepare than under-prepare.

Compared to the numbers in Europe (infections, death), we don't have it so bad. The new infection rate hasn't really changed. We're still getting over 100 new infections per day and at least one death per day. So, the disease hasn't started waning yet. But it hasn't spiked up either.

Who knows when the tipping point for it to start waning will happen. The government has extended the lock-down to mid-April only, so the calculation must be that by then, we will see very few or perhaps no new infections. Is this possible? China has show that it can be. Wuhan has achieved no new local infections. This gives us hope.

We read about people who violate the lock-down but most people are complying. This is what is necessary in order to break the chain of infection. Hopefully by mid-April or shortly thereafter the virus will run out of new people to infect due to this lock-down.

Our lock-down is not as severe as in some European countries like Italy and France where you have to fill out forms if you want to go outside. But ours is pretty stringent, as it should be. If you want to have a lock-down, you might as well have a proper lock-down.

If that means we can't go jogging for the time being, so be it. I'm all for a stringent lock-down. Imagine how much more disruptive and dangerous it would be if our situation were to become like Italy's. That thought alone should scare the living daylights out of you and convince you to stay home.

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