What's Mahathir up to?

What is this wily master politician up to?

It's hard to tell what Dr M is up to these days. The simplistic view is that he is trying to bolster Bersatu's numbers by taking in former UMNO members.

Bersatu currently has 16 MPs while DAP has 42 and PKR 50. If as many as say 40 UMNO members were to join Bersatu, suddenly it would be the biggest component party in Pakatan Harapan.

Then, it would have the moral authority to call the shots in Pakatan, presumably. Right now, the only reason Bersatu has a disproportionate say in Pakatan matters is Dr M's gravitas and his critical role in helping Pakatan win GE14.

Pakatan components had agreed that he would be at the helm for around two years before handing it over to Anwar so it is only natural they will defer to him a bit. Pakatan could also use a steady, experienced hand to guide them through this tumultuous and unprecedented transition period. Plus, people want him around because they feel he -- more so than Anwar -- will see through the prosecution of all the corrupt politicians from the previous government.

All these factors have led to everyone giving Mahathir a lot of leeway. But his seeming willingness -- keeness even -- of taking in UMNO refugees has made a lot of people uneasy.

Having observed Mahathir since the mid-90s, I agree with the view that he is the master tactician when it comes to politics. As such I don't think he's simply trying to bolster Bersatu's members. He knows full well there are a lot of bad apples in UMNO. There may be some good ones like Mustapa Mohamed but those are few and far in between. Most of them supported Najib even when the 1MDB scandal broke wide open. Most of them poured scorn on Pakatan component parties when they thought that BN was undefeatable. And now they want to join Pakatan? Talk about opportunism.

I can't believe that Dr M doesn't see all this. So, what is he up to?

Despite him saying he wants a strong opposition, what's clear is Dr M wants to destroy UMNO. Perhaps by giving the impression that Bersatu is keen to take on ex-UMNO guys, this will encourage more to abandon the mother ship. But in the end, he will take on only a few. Then he would really have the last laugh.

Perhaps it's a bit cruel to give UMNO refugees some glimmer of hope of getting back into the government only to deny them that in the end. But I don't think Dr M is above having a bit of cruel fun at the expense of UMNO guys.

The other question on everybody's mind is whether he will stick to his promise of handing over the reigns to Anwar after about two years in office. On occasions he states clearly that he will stick to his promise. On other occasions he will equivocate, saying things like he will stay on as long as people want him and that Anwar can become the PM if people want him.

Saying things like that only make people wonder how committed he is to passing the baton to Anwar. But it's really hard to see how he can do otherwise. Even if Bersatu were to have say 56 members (the current 16 + the 40 supposed UMNO MPs who could cross over), PKR + DAP + Amanah = 50 + 42 + 11 = 103. That bloc has the majority and that block wants Anwar as PM.

Let's imagine a worst case scenario where things come to a head and Bersatu actually leaves Pakatan. And let's say for the sake of discussion that Warisan also no longer aligns with Pakatan out of solidarity with Bersatu. That would result in Pakatan having less than the 112 seats it needs to form the government (short by 9 seats). But one could easily imagine Anwar and gang getting nine crossovers from somewhere (most likely Sabah and perhaps a few from Sarawak).

In contrast what could Bersatu do? Having absorbed most of UMNO's lawmakers to bolster its numbers to 56, who else could he get to join him? MCA? MIC. Okay, another two or three seats. Who else? Some from Sabah and Sarawak, perhaps. Still won't get him up to 112 seats.

So, there is no way Bersatu can have the upper hand. In collaborating with Pakatan Rakyat to form Pakatan Harapan, Dr M had made a deal that allowed him to oust Najib but it does not allow him to lord over Pakatan the way he did BN. He simply does not have the numbers, with or without UMNO refugees.

The best that Dr M can hope for, given his age and the circumstances that he's in, is for UMNO to be destroyed, for corrupted politicians to be prosecuted and for his legacy to be enhanced by his amazing second act in Malaysian politics. His role in helping to topple Najib should not be underestimated. He played a crucial role there and history will remember him for that.

If he doesn't ruffle too many feathers in Pakatan he might even get his third national car although it would have to be largely a private sector initiative. He might also get some assurance that Bersatu MPs will get a decent number of Cabinet positions in future administrations. That's if he plays nice with the rest of Pakatan. But if he tries to have everything his way, he will for the first time fail badly and destroy any hope of legacy rehabilitation. I'm pretty sure Dr M knows that.

Are Dr M and Anwar playing 3D Chess?

On the surface, Dr M seems to be eager to take in ex-UMNO MPs to bolster the number of Bersatu MPs (currently 16 compared to PKR's 50 and DAP's 42).

On the surface, Anwar is toying with the idea of having an UMNO bloc aligned with Nazri, as a bulwark against a potentially fast-growing Bersatu.

If the above scenarios are actually what's happening, Pakatan Harapan is in trouble. But what might seem obvious might not be what is happening. Could it be that both Dr M and Anwar are yanking UMNO's chain?

Mahathir is not some naive freshman politician. He's knows exactly what UMNO guys are like. There's no doubting he wants to grow Bersatu fast but he won't do it by accepting ex-UMNO MPs wholesale. He will pick and choose who he wants. I believe a lot will be rejected.

Anwar might be more compassionate and forgiving compared to Dr M, but he's no fool.  So what's he doing negotiating with Nazri? Maybe he's just humoring Nazri, who seems desperate to get back into the government again.

Remember, Anwar is negotiating from a position of strength. His party has the most number of seats. He is PM-designate. He has DAP and Amanah's support. He doesn't need UMNO guys. They need him.

Anwar will really get the last laugh if a bunch of UMNO MPs end up carrying out Nazri's plan and supports Pakatan in Parliament with nothing in return but the hope that one day they can be appointed Cabinet positions (it's not gonna happen).

Maybe I'm being too charitable towards Dr M and Anwar but realize this: These two are the most skillful, experienced, cunning and shrew politicians this country has ever seen. There is no way they will get outplayed by UMNO guys.

The equilibrium in Pakatan Harapan

Some people are fearful that Pakatan Harapan could eventually turn into a BN-like scenario where you have one big monolithic Malay-based party dominating the rest. This concern was born out of the notion that Bersatu may open its doors to 40-over members of UMNO in order to bolster its ranks.

It's a little bit hard to keep track of the exact numbers of MPs each party has but in GE14, this is what each one got:

PKR: 47
DAP: 42
Bersatu: 13
Amanah: 11

(In East Malaysian Warisan got 8 and UPKO 1 but for this discussion let's focus on the peninsula).

Since the election there has been some party-hopping and from what I can tell, this is the current composition:

PKR: 50 (additional 3)
DAP: 42
Bersatu: 15 (additional 2)
Amanah: 11

The concern is that some have is this: If Bersatu takes in say, 40 UMNO members, it would then suddenly have 55 MPs, making it the most dominant party in the coalition. If PKR (which is nominally multi-racial but in reality predominantly Malay) joins hands with Bersatu, then you suddenly have a bloc that has 50 + 55 MPs or 105 MPs, which would suddenly make DAP's 42 look tiny in comparison.

One thing people must realize is that PKR and Bersatu are fierce rivals. If anything, PKR is closer to DAP than it would be to Bersatu. So, even if Bersatu has 55, there will be a PKR that is close behind at 50.

The other thing people must realize is that DAP is actually very close to Amanah. Added together, that block is 42 + 11 = 53, which is pretty close to 55.

So even if UMNO does get that influx of 40 UMNO MPs (which is doubtful, actually) and it grows to 55-strong, it will be counter-balanced by PKR's 50 and DAP + Amanah's 53.

If push comes to shove, PKR will side with DAP and Amanah and that pushes that block up to 103 versus Bersatu's 50.

Bottom line: There is no way Bersatu can dominate Pakatan the way UMNO dominated BN.

Why I am still optimistic

There are reasons to feel disappointed with Pakatan Harapan. At first it backtracked on the ICERD issue. Then the Human Rights event had to be postponed to avoid any clashes with the anti-ICERD rally championed by PAS and UMNO.

On the surface it seems it extremism is winning out. Just threaten to run amok and the government will give in to your demands, it seems. There is a fear that this will embolden the extremists. But in politics you have to pick your battles knowing that to win the war you don't have to win every battle.

This is what I think Dr M is doing. He realizes that there is some unease among the Malays about the new government. While most probably don't buy into the extremist rhetoric that DAP has taken over the government (how can it when there's also Bersatu, PKR, Amanah and Warisan in the mix), there is a segment which are gullible enough to believe in such hokum.

In making the U-turn on ICERD, Dr M disappoints rational-thinking Malaysians who understand full well that being against discrimination is a good thing not a bad thing. However, at the same time he starves the extremists of the oxygen they need to propagate their fear-mongering rhetoric.

UMNO and PAS leaders think they've won this round -- and in a way they did -- but it's a hollow victory. Whether ICERD is ratified or not, in practical terms nothing would have changed.

UMNO types like to harp on the 3Rs that they claim is under constant threat: royalty, race and religion. Well, even if ICERD had been ratified, we'd still have the monarchy in place, Malays would still receive affirmative action and Islam would remain the religion of the federation. So what have they actually won? Nothing. Because none of these things would have changed anyway. (Essentially, ICERD is just a moral stance against discrimination, that's all. It doesn't change the constitution).

What they lost was the ability to use ICERD as a bogeyman. Now that the government has said no more ICERD, UMNO leaders no longer have that to harp about.

Does this mean these jokers will forever be able to play the "amok" card? No. The reality is that many of UMNO's top leaders have been charged with all kinds of corruption (Najib for instance has nearly 40 charges against him while Zahid has over 40 charges). It's worth noting that Dr M has indicated that more will be prosecuted. By the time he leaves office and hands over the keys to Anwar, most of these guys will be in jail. It won't be so easy for them to issue threats of "running amok" from behind bars.

If we want more progressive policies, we will have to be patient and wait for Anwar's turn to become PM. Meanwhile, we have to let Dr M do his job and get all the corrupted politicians prosecuted.

Slippery slope

The government recently announced a few alarming things:

In response to the Seafield temple riot, the Cabinet had decided to withdraw the moratorium on Sedition Act of 1948 and Section 233 of Communications and Multimedia Act 1998 (CMA).

Before that, Hanipa Maidin, deputy minister in the PM's department, revealed that the government would amend NSC Act rather than repeal it.

This is what Pakatan had promised:

What we are seeing here is the slippery slope happening in real time.

People can argue that unlike BN, Pakatan will not abuse these draconian laws. That may be true but even if that were the case it still does not justify Pakatan going back on its word that it would repeal such tyrannical laws which have no place in a modern democracy.