The straw that broke the camel's back

Pakatan Harapan's parties finally said enough is enough to Mahathir and withdrew their support for him to become PM once again. They nominated Anwar instead. Whether they will be able to get enough MPs to form a majority in parliament is yet to be seen (officially they have 92 and 112 is needed). But one thing is for sure, they have finally ditched Dr M.

This was a long time coming. For the past 22 months or so, all the PH leaders had been walking on eggshells, careful not to upset Dr M lest he goes for the "nuclear option" and blows up the coalition.

This was the thing they feared most. So they kowtowed to him and let him have his way on most things. Their thinking was that since Dr M had promised to be interim PM for two years, they could bite their lips and kowtow to him until the transition happens. Better not rock the boat.

That proved to be a disastrous policy. Appeasement never results in good behavior. It makes the other party think you are a pushover and actually encourages bad behavior. But ever fearful of Dr M's potential use of the nuclear option, they decided appeasement would be their policy.

What if he refuses to relinquish the post after two years? "We'll cross that bridge when we get there" seemed to be their answer to that.

So, they kowtowed and waited and kowtowed and waited and kowtowed and waited, hoping that Dr M will eventually reward them by keeping to his promise.

Even though it was perfectly reasonable, and totally logical, for them to expect Dr M to set a transition date, they ended up agreeing to letting him be the one to decide when he should step down.

Yet, despite this remarkable concession Bersatu leaders and Azmin pushed ahead with their plan to set up a backdoor coalition government involving UMNO, PAS, GPS and Warisan. In doing so, they caused the PH government to collapse.

Dr M's resignation as PM and Bersatu chairman took everyone (including Muhyiddin and Azmin) by surprise. Why did he do so? According to his communications czar, Kadir Jasin, it was because he didn't want to be forced to renege on his promise to Anwar.

Really? Really?! Really?!?

Sounds incredible but the top leaders of PH decided to give him the benefit of the doubt and actually decided to support him to be the 8th PM of this country.

Since they decided to take him at his word, it was perfectly reasonable for PH leaders to expect Dr M to help repair the damage that his party, Bersatu, and his blue eyed boy, Azmin, had wrought.

So, they invited him to attend their presidential council meeting to discuss ways to rebuild the coalition. He declined to be a part of that. Instead, he wanted to do his own thing which was to form a unity government consisting of people across the political spectrum.

This is a terrible idea for a variety of reasons.

Firstly, such a government would have a Cabinet chosen by Dr M alone without any input of consultation with other parties. Secondly, such a government is almost certain to include the very people who caused the downfall of the PH government, as well as some leaders from UMNO and PAS. Thirdly, everybody in this government would be beholden to Dr M. You can forget about any transition of power to Anwar.

It's clear that this was designed for him to be the PM for the full term. So much for Kadir Jasin's spin about him wanting to keep his promise to Anwar.

His decision to forge a unity government instead of helping to rebuild the PH government was the tipping point that made the PH leaders finally give up on him.

It was a long time coming but they were no longer under any illusions about Dr M's intentions. So, they pulled the rug underneath him and launched their own game plan.

No more kowtowing to Dr M in the hopes that he would keep his promise. No more walking on eggshells. No more appeasement. Instead, they would nominate Anwar to become the 8th PM. But can they get the numbers? It won't be easy but it's doable.

What about Dr M? Can he get the numbers now that he has lost PH's support (that's a whopping 92 seats gone)? If you do the math, you will see there is no conceivable configuration that would give Dr M the majority he needs to become PM.

He currently has a maximum of 64 seats in his favour (26 from Bersatu, 11 from Azmin's gang, 18 from GPS and 9 from Warisan). He will need another 48 from somewhere else.

What about going back to UMNO and PAS, as unpalatable as that may be to him? If he's desperate enough, this is something he could try to do. But can it be done?

They say politics is the art of the impossible. But this is pretty impossible. UMNO and PAS had already seen the King and said they no longer supported Dr M to be PM. Dr M, himself, had gone on television and said he would never work with UMNO.

Imagine if they all did an about face and approached the King again. You could easily imagine him saying, "Wait a minute, UMNO and PAS, didn't you just tell me you had rejected Dr M? And Dr M, didn't you just go on TV and tell the whole nation you would never work with UMNO?"

Ultimately, what happened was Dr M overplayed his hand with PH, which he had taken for granted all this while. He probably knew that UMNO and PAS's support was never solid. But he never expected PH to ditch him.

After all, these were the same guys who kowtowed to him for 22 months and who agreed to let him decide when to step down. These were the same guys who immediately pledged to support him as PM despite the fact that it was his people who caused the government to collapsed. But his decision to decline helping them to rebuild the PH government was the straw that broke the camel's back.

Had he agreed to attend the PH meeting and use his clout with Bersatu, GPS and Warisan, to get a simple majority to reform the PH government, he would have become Malaysia's 8th PM. He could have then used the rest of this year to attend to whatever unfinished business he has, do the APEC thing, and retire a hero. Instead, he scored the biggest own goal of his political career.

Minority government led by Dr M or Anwar?

How quickly the tables have turned. At one point, just a few days ago, Dr M had the support of practically every party in town. Bersatu, Azmin's new bloc, UMNO, PAS, GPS parties of Sarawak, Warisan and yes, PKR, DAP and Amanah. Basically, everybody.At one point, he theoretically had 221 MPs out of 222 on his side.

Today, UMNO and PAS no longer support him to be PM. And neither do PKR, DAP and Amanah. It's not clear what the East Malaysian parties stance is right now but let's assume they haven't changed and still support him. Couple that with support from Bersatu and Azmin's faction and all that he's got are: 18 (GPS) + 9 (Warisan) + 26 (Bersatu) + 11 (Azmin's faction) = 64. That's not even half of what's needed to form a majority in parliament.

Pakatan Harapan parties have decided to go with Anwar. What they have is 42 (DAP) + 39 (PKR) + 11 (Amanah) = 92. That's not enough to form a majority but it's a whole lot more than 64.

So, what's going to happen next? Most likely a mad scramble to form a minority government. Dr M needs to find 48 MPs from somewhere to join his so-called "unity government" idea while PH needs to find 20 MPs.

Dr M has ruled out UMNO and PAS en bloc but is willing to take in individuals, so perhaps he can try to find a few in UMNO and a few in PAS to join him. But will they do so knowing that he's got quite a mountain to climb to get to 48?

Without PH supporting him it's hard to imagine him being able to rustle up enough additional MPs to achieve that elusive 112 figure.

It's much easier to imagine PH achieving that. If Warisan + UPKO decide to resume supporting PH like it did before the collapse, that's another 10 already. It's worth noting that while Warisan has publicly said it supports Dr M, it has not officially renounced its support of PH.

If PH can get Warisan to renew that support they need to find just another 10 more. The most obvious way would be to convince at least 10 from GPS to support PH instead of Dr M. Or it could be to get a few from GPS, a few from UMNO, a few from PAS and a few from Bersatu to break ranks and join a minority government.

It won't be easy but getting 10 others to support a minority government is a smaller hill to climb than the mountain that Dr M has to get over to achieve his unity government concept.

It's never a wise thing to underestimate Dr M but perhaps this is the first time in his political career that he clearly overplayed his hand. Without PH's support (which amounts to a whopping 92 seats), he will not be able to get the numbers.

Yet he thought he had the upper hand and refused to attend their meeting to try to restore the PH government, which is what the rakyat voted for in GE14. Restoring PH after his own party and Azmin's faction brought it down, would be the honorable thing to do. Instead, he decided to bulldoze ahead with his unity government concept.

The least worst option

Surprise, surprise -- PAS and UMNO no longer support Dr M.

With the collapse of the Pakatan Harapan government and with neither side having a clear majority, there seems to be three options available to Dr M to form a new government:
a) Unity government
b) Minority government
c) Snap polls

The worst idea of all is that of a unity government. It's not that the concept itself is necessarily bad. There are countries with successful unity governments. But in the case of Malaysia, it's just not viable because of the parties involved. It makes absolutely no sense for PH parties to team up with UMNO or PAS.

You couldn't even call such a collaboration a marriage of convenience. A farce is more like it. Or you could call it a recipe for disaster. Whatever you call it, it has zero viability.

If PH parties couldn't even get along with Bersatu, which is a milder form of UMNO, imagine how it would be like with the real thing. And of course we all know what happened the last time they tried to collaborate with PAS.

According to press reports, Dr M was actually toying with the idea of a unity government -- but not involving UMNO and PAS as parties. Rather, he was considering inviting certain "acceptable" individuals from UMNO and PAS to join him in a unity government. This was roundly rejected by UMNO and PAS, which now have rescinded their support for Dr M to become PM.

The sooner Dr M forgets about this idea of a unity government, the better. It is far and away the absolute worst option of all. Snap polls is not quite as bad but why should he do this if he can cobble together a minority government (which he likely can do)?

There is one potential benefit to having a snap election though, which is that it would be an opportunity to wipe out BN and PAS. But there are risks involved too. What if BN and PAS makes gains (unlikely as that may be)? It's probably better not to take that risk and instead form a minority government. This will buy you time to implement policies (i.e. fulfilling the PH manifesto) that will win public support.

Let's have a look at the numbers. What's left of PH + Warisan and UPKO = 102 MPs. He needs another 10. He could easily get that from Bersatu even though they are now outside of PH (technically Warisan is outside of PH too). Logically speaking, he should be able to get all 26 from Bersatu. That would make up 128, a comfortable majority (he doesn't even have to look to Sarawak's GPS for support).

But a minority government isn't without its problems. Yes, he could probably get the numbers he needs to do this, with Warisan/UPKO and Bersatu's support. But what will happen to that support once a transition to Anwar takes place? Much, if not all, of it might suddenly dissipate. Then we're back to where we are right now: the collapse of the government.

The long term solution for PH is for PKR, DAP and Amanah to do sufficiently well in GE15 that they have enough seats to form a government without Warisan and without Bersatu. To do that, it has to field candidates in constituencies that these two parties will be contesting in.

If Warisan and Bersatu are unwilling to support an Anwar-led government anyway, there is no problem contesting against them. They would not be considered allies or even friendly parties in such a situation. So, contest against them and trounce them.

What this does mean though is that Anwar probably will not get the chance to become PM until after GE15. This naturally begs the question: Is this what Dr M wanted all along?

If one wants to be cynical, one could view this whole episode as a Machiavellian plot to thwart Anwar. But if one wants to be charitable, one could accept the narrative that this all happened because he wanted to keep his promise.

If Dr M is sincere about keeping his promise, the first thing he should do if he becomes the 8th PM is to appoint Anwar deputy prime minister. This would be a clear signal to everyone -- but notably to Warisan and Bersatu -- that he is totally and absolutely committed to the transition happening.

Dr M could then identify MPs within Warisan and Bersatu who are not so dead set against Anwar becoming PM and get buy-in from them. He could do that. But will he?

Seems like quite a stretch to expect him to do so. But according to what we are hearing from the likes of his communications czar Kadir Jasin, he quit as PM and Bersatu chairman precisely because his lieutenants in Bersatu were trying to force him to renege on his promise to hand over the reigns to Anwar. That was the reason cited!

If this narrative is to be believed, then by right he should do all that he can to make it possible for Anwar to take over, perhaps after APEC, and become PM for about two years before heading into GE15. This would give Anwar and PH the momentum to win convincingly.

The alternative is for him to carry on as PM for the full term. But to what end? Surely he does not want chaos to reign supreme upon his retirement. But that's exactly what will happen if he doesn't set in motion a succession plan for Anwar, something only he is uniquely qualified to do.

From hero to zero to hero

Dr M is a man of surprises. When he decided to join the then-Opposition and team up with PKR, DAP and Amanah to take on the mighty BN government, few could believe it. Few trusted him either.

But with his help, Pakatan Harapan did the impossible and toppled the BN government. Immediately, all of his past sins were forgiven and he was suddenly hailed as Malaysia's savior.

How quickly that changed over the course of two years. By the time the PH Council announced he would be allowed to decide when he should step down, Dr M was denounced by many as a power-hungry old man unwilling to let go.

Then came the big bombshell: The impending creation of a new coalition involving Bersatu, UMNO, PAS and East Malaysian parties.

Dr M's transition from hero to zero was complete. Or so it seemed.

The very next day, Dr M resigns as PM and Bersatu chairman, and a new narrative quickly emerged.

He was never part of the attempted backdoor takeover of the government, PH party leaders say. In fact, he opposed it, they claim.

Anwar appealed for him not to resign. DAP and Amanah announced they wanted him to continue as PM. Overnight, Dr M is a hero once again.

But there are so many twists and turns in this amazing story, it's hard to know what's the truth, especially since Dr M himself has not said anything about it.

So, how much of it is spin and how much of it is a reflection of what is actually happening? No one other than Dr M actually knows.

But there are a few things we do know:
a) Azmin and his gang are out of PKR (and therefore PH)
b) Bersatu is also out of PH

Overnight, PKR is suddenly rid of its most troublesome elements.

PKR should have gotten rid of Azmin and gang a long time ago. As for Bersatu, as an UMNO-like party, it never quite fit in with PH. So, it's better that it's out.

That does mean however that PH doesn't have the majority anymore. PKR now only has 39 MPs, while DAP and Amanah have 42 and 11 respectively. That makes up 92. They need 112 to form the government. Where are they going to get another 20 from?

While it's unclear whether Warisan has any loyalties to PH, it has said it supports Dr M to continue as PM. Warisan plus UPKO means another 10 MPs. So, we have 102. That leaves another 10 which could probably come from elements of Bersatu, which although is now outside of PH, still supports Dr M.

In fact, if all Bersatu MPs support Dr M, the total number of MPs who would want Dr M to remain as PM would be 102 + 26 = 128, which is a comfortable majority.

But can they form the government with Bersatu being outside the coalition? Well, Warisan was never part of the coalition but supports it. So Bersatu can theoretically do the same thing in order to form a government under Dr M.

It won't be a stable one though because there would naturally be a lot of suspicion about Bersatu. After all, they had clearly displayed a willingness to dump PH in favor of a new coalition (which never materialized).

As long as the coalition is led by Dr M, there could be detente between PH and Bersatu, for the sake of forming a government but once Dr M leaves the scene, and Anwar takes over, that detente is over.

Relations between Bersatu and the rest of PH were already fraught before they left the coalition, imagine what it would be like once Dr M is no longer in charge.

At the very least it would be an incredibly awkward cooperation. Would Anwar want any Bersatu leaders in his Cabinet?

In the long term, the best way for PH to form a stable government is for it to win enough seats in GE15 to form a majority without Bersatu.

It doesn't mean it then has to cast aside its frenemy. It could still involve Bersatu in the government but it would be doing so from a position of strength.

In the previous scenario, you had a weird situation where Bersatu was the third largest party in the coalition (or second smallest, depending on how you look at it) yet it was the dominant force in the government. It had a disproportionate number of ministers and everybody kowtowed to its leader, Dr M

Never again should the PH parties allow themselves to be cowed by a recalcitrant component party that is prepared to leave the coalition if it doesn't get its way.

So, what's going to happen next? The situation is still very fluid and it's impossible right now to tell how this will all unfold in the coming days. But indications are that a coalition headed by Dr M and comprising PH + Bersatu + Warisan will form the new government. It looks that way, anyway.

The obvious biggest loser in all this is Azmin and gang, which broke away and will never be allowed back into PH.

UMNO and PAS are also losers here. They thought they were going to become part of the new government but they got outfoxed by Dr M no less (the man they supposedly supported, at least in the case of PAS).

Bersatu may not be a big loser but it is not the big winner either. It would probably be accurate to describe it as a small loser. It had expected to be the Big Kahuna of the new coalition, but that plan has been scuttled now that Dr M reportedly wants nothing to do with the formation of a new government.

Now, from being a key player in a ruling coalition, it has been reduced to being a medium-sized party with no coalition affiliation. It's not quite in the political doghouse that Azmin and gang have now found themselves to be in, but it's not in a great position either.

Warisan has emerged from all this largely unscathed. It's not a winner but not a loser either.

New government? It's a numbers game

Speculation has reached fever pitch that Dr M is trying to form a new coalition government involving the following elements:

a) Bersatu (26)
b) Azmin faction of PKR (supposedly 15 or so)
c) BN (UMNO + MCA + MIC) (42)
d) PAS (18)
e) GPS (18)
f) Warisan (9)

Together (if everyone were to agree to a new coalition) they would presumably have a total of 26 + 15 + 42 + 18 + 9 = 128 (more than enough to form the majority).

The problem with the simplistic calculation above is that it assumes everybody in every one of those parties would agree to such a new alliance. But it would be wrong to assume that. Surely there would be some members in some of those parties who would object. Similarly, we also cannot assume that everyone in DAP and Amanah would be opposed to this. It's possible that some might jump ship and join the new coalition.

So in terms of the numbers (i.e. who has the majority) it's really hard to say. Is it conceivable that Dr M could cobble together a new coalition that can give him the numbers he needs to form a new government? It is possible course, and for all we know he might just be able to pull it off. But it would come at a terrible price.

Even if he were to be able to arrange a marriage of convenience among these competing parties in order to topple the current government, fractures will emerge very quickly. If Dr M thought it was hard dealing with a largely compliant DAP, PKR and Amanah for the past two years, imagine what it will be like for him dealing with four other parties, each of which think of itself as a king-maker and each of which will make their own demands of the other.

One big difference between the dynamics of PH and this new coalition is that the other PH component parties were not willing to use the nuclear option of pulling out of the coalition if it doesn't get its way (only Bersatu was willing to do that). So, instead of upsetting Dr M, they tried to appease him for two years.

Ironically, Dr M once said that unlike in BN, the parties within PH were more or less equals with each party needing the others in order for PH to be the government. Actually it wasn't true that they were more or less equals in terms of numbers. PKR has 50, DAP 42, Bersatu 26 and Amanah 11 MPs, so they are not actually equal. Yet, far from PKR and DAP behaving like the dominant parties in the coalition, it was Bersatu that always acted as if it was the indispensable one.

This will not be the case in a Bersatu-UMNO-PAS-GPS-Warisan coalition. Unlike in PH where the other component parties walked on eggshells for two year, Bersatu's prospective new partners will not hesistate to make their demands and, like Bersatu, they will threaten to use the nuclear option if they don't get their way. Imagine five Bersatus in one coalition. What a powder keg that will be.

It will be an incredibly unstable coalition with each of the five key parties believing themselves to be the linchpin of the coalition -- and behaving accordingly. But even if they don't implode before GE15, what such a team-up will do is give voters a clear and stark choice of the kind of government they want for the future of this country.

Bersatu never fitted well within PH. It was like a mini-UMNO within a multi-racial coalition. Its presence muddied PH's progressive, multiracial message. Once rid of the baggage that is Bersatu, PH could then project a clearer, more consistent vision of what it has to offer Malaysians, and contrast that to what the other side has to offer. The choice will be very clear for Malaysians. And that's a good thing.