Tuesday, February 25, 2020

From hero to zero to hero

Dr M is a man of surprises. When he decided to join the then-Opposition and team up with PKR, DAP and Amanah to take on the mighty BN government, few could believe it. Few trusted him either.

But with his help, Pakatan Harapan did the impossible and toppled the BN government. Immediately, all of his past sins were forgiven and he was suddenly hailed as Malaysia's savior.

How quickly that changed over the course of two years. By the time the PH Council announced he would be allowed to decide when he should step down, Dr M was denounced by many as a power-hungry old man unwilling to let go.

Then came the big bombshell: The impending creation of a new coalition involving Bersatu, UMNO, PAS and East Malaysian parties.

Dr M's transition from hero to zero was complete. Or so it seemed.

The very next day, Dr M resigns as PM and Bersatu chairman, and a new narrative quickly emerged.

He was never part of the attempted backdoor takeover of the government, PH party leaders say. In fact, he opposed it, they claim.

Anwar appealed for him not to resign. DAP and Amanah announced they wanted him to continue as PM. Overnight, Dr M is a hero once again.

But there are so many twists and turns in this amazing story, it's hard to know what's the truth, especially since Dr M himself has not said anything about it.

So, how much of it is spin and how much of it is a reflection of what is actually happening? No one other than Dr M actually knows.

But there are a few things we do know:
a) Azmin and his gang are out of PKR (and therefore PH)
b) Bersatu is also out of PH

Overnight, PKR is suddenly rid of its most troublesome elements.

PKR should have gotten rid of Azmin and gang a long time ago. As for Bersatu, as an UMNO-like party, it never quite fit in with PH. So, it's better that it's out.

That does mean however that PH doesn't have the majority anymore. PKR now only has 39 MPs, while DAP and Amanah have 42 and 11 respectively. That makes up 92. They need 112 to form the government. Where are they going to get another 20 from?

While it's unclear whether Warisan has any loyalties to PH, it has said it supports Dr M to continue as PM. Warisan plus UPKO means another 10 MPs. So, we have 102. That leaves another 10 which could probably come from elements of Bersatu, which although is now outside of PH, still supports Dr M.

In fact, if all Bersatu MPs support Dr M, the total number of MPs who would want Dr M to remain as PM would be 102 + 26 = 128, which is a comfortable majority.

But can they form the government with Bersatu being outside the coalition? Well, Warisan was never part of the coalition but supports it. So Bersatu can theoretically do the same thing in order to form a government under Dr M.

It won't be a stable one though because there would naturally be a lot of suspicion about Bersatu. After all, they had clearly displayed a willingness to dump PH in favor of a new coalition (which never materialized).

As long as the coalition is led by Dr M, there could be detente between PH and Bersatu, for the sake of forming a government but once Dr M leaves the scene, and Anwar takes over, that detente is over.

Relations between Bersatu and the rest of PH were already fraught before they left the coalition, imagine what it would be like once Dr M is no longer in charge.

At the very least it would be an incredibly awkward cooperation. Would Anwar want any Bersatu leaders in his Cabinet?

In the long term, the best way for PH to form a stable government is for it to win enough seats in GE15 to form a majority without Bersatu.

It doesn't mean it then has to cast aside its frenemy. It could still involve Bersatu in the government but it would be doing so from a position of strength.

In the previous scenario, you had a weird situation where Bersatu was the third largest party in the coalition (or second smallest, depending on how you look at it) yet it was the dominant force in the government. It had a disproportionate number of ministers and everybody kowtowed to its leader, Dr M

Never again should the PH parties allow themselves to be cowed by a recalcitrant component party that is prepared to leave the coalition if it doesn't get its way.

So, what's going to happen next? The situation is still very fluid and it's impossible right now to tell how this will all unfold in the coming days. But indications are that a coalition headed by Dr M and comprising PH + Bersatu + Warisan will form the new government. It looks that way, anyway.

The obvious biggest loser in all this is Azmin and gang, which broke away and will never be allowed back into PH.

UMNO and PAS are also losers here. They thought they were going to become part of the new government but they got outfoxed by Dr M no less (the man they supposedly supported, at least in the case of PAS).

Bersatu may not be a big loser but it is not the big winner either. It would probably be accurate to describe it as a small loser. It had expected to be the Big Kahuna of the new coalition, but that plan has been scuttled now that Dr M reportedly wants nothing to do with the formation of a new government.

Now, from being a key player in a ruling coalition, it has been reduced to being a medium-sized party with no coalition affiliation. It's not quite in the political doghouse that Azmin and gang have now found themselves to be in, but it's not in a great position either.

Warisan has emerged from all this largely unscathed. It's not a winner but not a loser either.

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