Ku Li tells it like it is

Ku Li: Bersatu shouldn't come into the picture.

Enough said.

PN's seat allocation problem

Interesting analysis by Malaysiakini about the "fake" PN list.

Fact 1: In GE14, UMNO fielded 120 candidates and had 54 winners.
Fact 2: Bersatu fielded 52 candidates and won 13.
Fact 3: PAS fielded 154 candidates and won 18.

The PN Dilemma:
1. UMNO, which perceives itself as the Big Brother in any coalition, will want to contest in many seats in order to maintain its dominance in terms of seats.
2. Bersatu, which currently helms PN, wants to get more seats than any other party to ensure that it stays in charge.
3. PAS which fielded the most number of candidates, will want to continue to do so.

Seat allocation in as close to an impossible feat as you could find when it comes to these three parties, all of whom are targeting the same electorate.

Harapan has its problems but not like this. Harapan has already sorted out its seat allocations among PKR, DAP and Amanah. The only question is whether they will contest seats that Dr M's faction and Warisan are contesting. I think they should. They cannot rely on these people to necessarily support Harapan. So they need to get enough numbers on their own, to form a government.

It's not Warisan Plus but Harapan Plus

Growing support for third PM candidate in Harapan Plus

That headline above ☝ is misleading. If you just read the headline, you might assume that DAP, Amanah and maybe even PKR leaders are supportive of this. Actually it's Warisan people and Dr M's people who are supportive. So, it's basically the "Plus" side that wants this. Not the Harapan side.

It's ridiculous to even moot Shafie's name as a PM candidate. Warisan has never pledged commitment to Harapan. Their commitment is to Dr M. Why should he even be in consideration as Harapan Plus's candidate for PM?

In that same article, a Bersatu source is quoted as saying: "If they do not agree, then we have to go against each other in the election."

That's precisely what PKR and Harapan should prepare for. They can't go into GE15 assuming that Dr M's faction and Warisan are allies. They have to be ready to field candidates in all the seats that Perikatan is fielding, regardless of whether Bersatu or Warisan are fielding candidates there too.

I've long said, Harapan needs to win GE15 without the Plus. Only then will it be a stable government.

After the election is over, and with a solid victory in hand, if the Plus side wants to support the government, fine. They can. But Harapan will be welcoming them from a position of strength and will not be subject to the whims and fancies of any kingmakers.

Let's do the math, shall we?

So, Dr M claims that Pakatan Harapan couldn't have won GE14 without his Bersatu party. Is he right?

Let's do the math. Harapan won 113 seats on its own, which was enough to control Parliament and form the government.

Bersatu won 13 seats. So if you deduct those 13 from the 113 number that they got, they would have been left with exactly 100 seats. That's not enough to form the government. So, yes, Dr M is right that without Bersatu, Harapan would not have been able to form the government.

But lo and behold. Without Amanah's 11 seats, you couldn't have formed the government either. And without DAP's 42 seats, you definitely couldn't have formed the government. Most certainly without PKR's 47 seats, it would be impossible.

So, what is he talking about? The harsh reality is that without any of the component parties, Harapan would not have made it.

Who needs who more?

When it comes to negotiations, the one with the upper hand is always the one who can walk away from the deal. In the case of the Opposition (Harapan Plus) coming together to overthrow Perikatan, the stumbling block seems to be over who would become the new PM should they succeed in their goals of defeating Muhyiddin and gang.

From what we can gather through news reports, Dr M wants six months as PM after which he would hand the position over to Anwar. Why does one get a sense of deja vu when one hears this? If you were Anwar would you trust such a deal? Can you blame him for insisting that he be the PM candidate for Harapan Plus?

Dr M's supporters are saying that Harapan has no chance of taking over the government without Dr M and his supporters. While that may be true what is also undeniably true is that Dr M and his supporters have no chance of overthrowing Perikatan wihtout PKR, which is now solidly behind Anwar.

So, both sides need each other. But who needs the other more?

If there's no deal Anwar can afford to wait for GE15 to lead Harapan to victory. As for Dr M, who is now 95, time isn't exactly on his side. If push comes to shove, Anwar can walk away. Can Dr M?

Ultimately, he has to decide: live with the fact that Muhyiddin outwitted him or live with the fact that it's Anwar who is going to become the next PM. It's one or the other because the option of Dr M himself becoming the PM is not an option as long as Anwar says no deal.

PKR has 38 MPs. Without those 38, you cannot form a coalition government even if GPS (from Sarawak) switches sides. It's just not possible. The numbers are not there.

Sooner or later, Dr M has to face the facts that what he's got to do is pick the least worst option: Muhyiddin or Anwar? Who is worse from him?

If he chooses to live with the fact that Muhyiddin shall remain PM until GE15, fine. Anwar can continue to work with Harapan and plan for GE15. What can Dr M do with his band of four or five men from Bersatu who are still aligned with him?

Anwar is fully aware of what the score is. That's why he's holding out and refusing to just give in. Harapan parties did enough kowtowing during their 22 months in power. It seems DAP and Amanah are still prepared to kowtow some more to Dr M. But not Anwar. And who can blame him?