Khaled Nordin tells it like it is

UMNO PM candidate if we win the most seats.

Enough said.

Ku Li tells it like it is

Ku Li: Bersatu shouldn't come into the picture.

Enough said.

PN's seat allocation problem

Interesting analysis by Malaysiakini about the "fake" PN list.

Fact 1: In GE14, UMNO fielded 120 candidates and had 54 winners.
Fact 2: Bersatu fielded 52 candidates and won 13.
Fact 3: PAS fielded 154 candidates and won 18.

The PN Dilemma:
1. UMNO, which perceives itself as the Big Brother in any coalition, will want to contest in many seats in order to maintain its dominance in terms of seats.
2. Bersatu, which currently helms PN, wants to get more seats than any other party to ensure that it stays in charge.
3. PAS which fielded the most number of candidates, will want to continue to do so.

Seat allocation in as close to an impossible feat as you could find when it comes to these three parties, all of whom are targeting the same electorate.

Harapan has its problems but not like this. Harapan has already sorted out its seat allocations among PKR, DAP and Amanah. The only question is whether they will contest seats that Dr M's faction and Warisan are contesting. I think they should. They cannot rely on these people to necessarily support Harapan. So they need to get enough numbers on their own, to form a government.

It's not Warisan Plus but Harapan Plus

Growing support for third PM candidate in Harapan Plus

That headline above ☝ is misleading. If you just read the headline, you might assume that DAP, Amanah and maybe even PKR leaders are supportive of this. Actually it's Warisan people and Dr M's people who are supportive. So, it's basically the "Plus" side that wants this. Not the Harapan side.

It's ridiculous to even moot Shafie's name as a PM candidate. Warisan has never pledged commitment to Harapan. Their commitment is to Dr M. Why should he even be in consideration as Harapan Plus's candidate for PM?

In that same article, a Bersatu source is quoted as saying: "If they do not agree, then we have to go against each other in the election."

That's precisely what PKR and Harapan should prepare for. They can't go into GE15 assuming that Dr M's faction and Warisan are allies. They have to be ready to field candidates in all the seats that Perikatan is fielding, regardless of whether Bersatu or Warisan are fielding candidates there too.

I've long said, Harapan needs to win GE15 without the Plus. Only then will it be a stable government.

After the election is over, and with a solid victory in hand, if the Plus side wants to support the government, fine. They can. But Harapan will be welcoming them from a position of strength and will not be subject to the whims and fancies of any kingmakers.

Let's do the math, shall we?

So, Dr M claims that Pakatan Harapan couldn't have won GE14 without his Bersatu party. Is he right?

Let's do the math. Harapan won 113 seats on its own, which was enough to control Parliament and form the government.

Bersatu won 13 seats. So if you deduct those 13 from the 113 number that they got, they would have been left with exactly 100 seats. That's not enough to form the government. So, yes, Dr M is right that without Bersatu, Harapan would not have been able to form the government.

But lo and behold. Without Amanah's 11 seats, you couldn't have formed the government either. And without DAP's 42 seats, you definitely couldn't have formed the government. Most certainly without PKR's 47 seats, it would be impossible.

So, what is he talking about? The harsh reality is that without any of the component parties, Harapan would not have made it.