Harapan has the upper hand in polls

So, we're gonna see polls in Sabah within 60 days. This will be very interesting. Sabah politics (and indeed, East Malaysian politics) is a bit different from Peninsula politics. The dynamics are a little bit different and over there, warlords seem to have a disproportionate influence over the electorate. Nevertheless, one dynamic at play is exactly the same as in the Peninsula: We are looking at a backdoor government attempt.

In the Peninsula, the perpetrators managed to pull it off, thanks in no small part to Dr M abruptly resigning in a miscalculated attempt to consolidate his power. Perhaps learning from Dr M's mistake, Shafie did the right thing and asked for a dissolution rather than simply allowing his opponents to take over by way of statutory declarations or some other means of proving they have the numbers.

The constitution allows him to do this and he did it. Now, it is up to the voters to decide their own future. Do they want to go with the Harapan-friendly side or the Perikatan-friendly side?

One thing is for sure though, the voters know who the frogs are. These are the people who betrayed the electorate's choice in GE14. I don't think voters like that and I think many, if not most, of the frogs will be punished by the electorate.

The other problem, the Perikatan-friendly side has is that Bersatu and UMNO are already at loggerheads about seat allocation. I've said many times, this is a problem that Perikatan component parties will struggle with. Over at the Peninsula side, this problem will be even more challenging with PAS in the mix. All three core parties — Bersatu, UMNO, PAS — are going after the same demographic. None will give an inch. All will want to claim as many seats as possible.

So, in a nutshell, there are two core problems Perikatan faces:
a) Voters will know who the frogs are and they will punish them
b) The Perikatan side won't be able to resolve the seat allocation problem

Haparan has its own set of problems but it doesn't have those two issues above. That fact alone gives it an upper hand against Perikatan in GE15.

Harapan should just prepare for GE15

With each passing day, it's becoming painfully obvious that the best option for Harapan is to prepare itself for GE15. Forget about doing a counter-coup against the backdoor government of Perikatan.

I know it's very tempting to want to do a counter-coup when Perikatan is just hanging by a tread. But where are you going to get the numbers from? Answer: Frogs.

If they can jump into your camp for now, they can jump into another camp when they get a better offer. Forget about dealing with frogs. Focus on GE15.

If nothing else, what Harapan has got going for itself is that it's more or less sorted out its seat allocations. DAP, PKR and Amanah each have got their seats carved out, as per GE14.

What different is that among themselves, they need to decide who will contest in Bersatu and Warisan seats.

Yes, they should contest wherever Bersatu and Warisan contests. The reason for contesting against Bersatu is obvious, it's now an opponent not an ally. While Dr M's faction, comprising 6 MPs might not be an opponent, they aren't committed allies either. The same can be said about Warisan, which is why Harapan would be fools not to contest in those seats and try to win them for itself.

If they give way to Bersatu and Warisan, who go on to win those seats, we will be back to status quo, with Shafie and Dr M using their leverage to block Anwar from becoming PM. Might as well contest against these parties, win a few seats and try to get enough to form a majority without the help of external parties.

This really is what Harapan should be focusing on instead of daydreaming about launching a counter-coup. Let Perikatan implode. Even if Perikatan manages to stay together until GE15, they won't be able to come to an agreement on seat allocations.

The reason for this has been well articulated in many places but in a nutshell, it is this: Bersatu, UMNO and PAS are all targeting the same demographic. None will want to budge an inch on seats that they consider theirs. And there are a lot of overlapping seats.

More spin from Dr M

Dr M says it was Lim Guan Eng who mooted that Shafie become PM. That may very well be true but it was clearly a suggestion. In fact, both DAP and Amanah said immediately after the meeting that this was a matter that needed to be discussed by Harapan (of which Dr M is not a member, nor is Shafie).

So, Harapan had a meeting and decided they would stick with Anwar instead. That's Harapan's prerogative. And it's the right move, by the way. Why have a coalition only to propose someone outside the coalition as your PM candidate? Doesn't make sense.

He goes on to say that though there were several MPs who were willing to join the opposition, they would not do so if Anwar was the PM candidate.

Well, Dr M has a problem too. There are 38 MPs (from PKR) who don't want him or Shafie to be PM. So how is he going to resolve that?

Lastly, he says: “When I stepped down (in February) and everyone was asked to state who they wanted, I should have been given full support by Harapan because they told me they supported me fully."

Yes, Harapan supported him fully as PM, but for Harapan, not as PM of a unity government whereby he could pick and choose whomever he wanted without consultation with others from Harapan. And he conveniently doesn't mention that when Harapan asked him to attend a meeting to discuss how to get back control of the government, he refused. That's when they decided, it had to be Anwar. 

A microcosm of what will happen across the country

Gombak Umno, PAS won't work with Azmin:

1. Not surprising
2. Is a reflection of what will happen in other constituencies
3. UMNO, PAS and Bersatu will not be able to resolve seat allocations. The demographics they are each going after are almost the same.

Dr M's spin on reasons for resignation rings hollow

Dr M claims that the reason he resigned is that the Harapan government had collapsed when Muhyiddin pulled Bersatu out of the coalition. This is what he said:

Strictly speaking, when Bersatu left Harapan, the coalition ceased to be the government. This meant that all members of the cabinet lost their ministerial positions. This included me. I had lost my position as prime minister. Resigning was only a formality.

But the reality is that there was no immediate collapse because Muhyiddin didn't clearly have a majority either. In fact, the King said he told Dr M not to resign but he insisted on doing so. Why?

Was it because he was a "gentleman" and knowing he had lost control of the majority, he decided to resign? Or could it be for another reason? Might that reason be that he wanted to be free from the shackles of Harapan and be able to form a so-called "unity government" where he could pick and choose whichever MP he wanted from either side without consulting any parties. In other words, a government where everyone is beholden to him while he is accountable to no one.

What made him think he could pull off such a ridiculous scheme? Well, at that time Bersatu, PAS and UMNO were saying they wanted him as PM. Meanwhile Harapan parties were also saying they wanted him as PM. So theoretically he had a super-majority in Parliament where both the ruling coalition and the opposition wanted him as PM.

He probably figured, if UMNO and gang were to reject him, he'd still have Harapan to fall back on. And if Harapan were to reject him, he'd still have UMNO and gang supporting him. With so much support all around, he became over-confident. So imagine his shock when both sides decided to reject his unity government pipe dream.

It's interesting that Najib himself has responded to Dr M's spin on his resignation, pointing out: "He even ignored Harapan's request to have a meeting a day after he resigned to discuss how they could save the Harapan government."

This is what led Harapan to then change its PM candidate to Anwar. Because Dr M had abandoned them. It was only later that the were able to come together again to try to find common ground. Strangely, both DAP and Amanah were keen on having Dr M as Harapan's PM candidate once more. But that was stymied (rightly so) by PKR.

Eventually, DAP and Amanah came around to supporting Anwar again. And that's where we are at right now. I don't think it's a bad situation for Harapan. Together they have 91 MPs. What does Dr M have? A total of 6 MPs. If you lump Warisan in there, he has 15 MPs.

It's very clear who has the upper hand here, even if Dr M and Shafie refuse to recognize the reality of the situation. They are simply in no position to make any demands.