Not one seat for Bersatu

 

 

 

The Umno supreme council has decided that BN will contest in seats that it had lost due to defections since the last general election.

“This is the supreme council’s - not the president’s – decision to retake (the seats). Thus, we will not give even one seat to Bersatu. That much is certain.

“If Bersatu still wants (to contest in the next general election), then they can contest in other seats.

“It is up to them to contest in Bersatu Blackout’s seats or wherever else, they can go contest in that place,” said supreme council member Zahidi Zainul Abidin.

Enough said.

Azmin's true face

Umno supreme council member Puad Zarkashi doesn't mince his words:

"After joining Bersatu, it will not be easy for Azmin and his group to win solid support of the Chinese as they had done in the 13th and 14th general elections.

"By joining Bersatu, Azmin will join Muafakat Nasional (too). There is a proverb that says 'masuk kandang kambing mengembik, masuk kandang kerbau menguak' (when you enter a goat's pen, bleat, when you enter a cow's pen, moo)," he said.

Puad was apparently referring to the Malay-centric thrust of Muafakat Nasional's political position, which would ostensibly alienate non-Malay voters in Azmin's Gombak constituency.

"The people will see the true face of Azmin. Only the inspector-general of police will say Azmin's face is still blurred," he jibed.

***

Enough said.

Will Bersatu in Muafakat resolve seat allocation issue?

 

So, Bersatu looks set to join Muafakat. Will this will resolve the seat allocation issue?, a friend asked me. The answer is of course not!

Have a look at this: Gombak Umno indicates it won't give Azmin free pass to defend his seat.

This is but a microcosm of what will happen throughout the country. Enough said.

Harapan has the upper hand in polls

So, we're gonna see polls in Sabah within 60 days. This will be very interesting. Sabah politics (and indeed, East Malaysian politics) is a bit different from Peninsula politics. The dynamics are a little bit different and over there, warlords seem to have a disproportionate influence over the electorate. Nevertheless, one dynamic at play is exactly the same as in the Peninsula: We are looking at a backdoor government attempt.

In the Peninsula, the perpetrators managed to pull it off, thanks in no small part to Dr M abruptly resigning in a miscalculated attempt to consolidate his power. Perhaps learning from Dr M's mistake, Shafie did the right thing and asked for a dissolution rather than simply allowing his opponents to take over by way of statutory declarations or some other means of proving they have the numbers.

The constitution allows him to do this and he did it. Now, it is up to the voters to decide their own future. Do they want to go with the Harapan-friendly side or the Perikatan-friendly side?

One thing is for sure though, the voters know who the frogs are. These are the people who betrayed the electorate's choice in GE14. I don't think voters like that and I think many, if not most, of the frogs will be punished by the electorate.

The other problem, the Perikatan-friendly side has is that Bersatu and UMNO are already at loggerheads about seat allocation. I've said many times, this is a problem that Perikatan component parties will struggle with. Over at the Peninsula side, this problem will be even more challenging with PAS in the mix. All three core parties — Bersatu, UMNO, PAS — are going after the same demographic. None will give an inch. All will want to claim as many seats as possible.

So, in a nutshell, there are two core problems Perikatan faces:
a) Voters will know who the frogs are and they will punish them
b) The Perikatan side won't be able to resolve the seat allocation problem

Haparan has its own set of problems but it doesn't have those two issues above. That fact alone gives it an upper hand against Perikatan in GE15.

Harapan should just prepare for GE15

With each passing day, it's becoming painfully obvious that the best option for Harapan is to prepare itself for GE15. Forget about doing a counter-coup against the backdoor government of Perikatan.

I know it's very tempting to want to do a counter-coup when Perikatan is just hanging by a tread. But where are you going to get the numbers from? Answer: Frogs.

If they can jump into your camp for now, they can jump into another camp when they get a better offer. Forget about dealing with frogs. Focus on GE15.

If nothing else, what Harapan has got going for itself is that it's more or less sorted out its seat allocations. DAP, PKR and Amanah each have got their seats carved out, as per GE14.

What different is that among themselves, they need to decide who will contest in Bersatu and Warisan seats.

Yes, they should contest wherever Bersatu and Warisan contests. The reason for contesting against Bersatu is obvious, it's now an opponent not an ally. While Dr M's faction, comprising 6 MPs might not be an opponent, they aren't committed allies either. The same can be said about Warisan, which is why Harapan would be fools not to contest in those seats and try to win them for itself.

If they give way to Bersatu and Warisan, who go on to win those seats, we will be back to status quo, with Shafie and Dr M using their leverage to block Anwar from becoming PM. Might as well contest against these parties, win a few seats and try to get enough to form a majority without the help of external parties.

This really is what Harapan should be focusing on instead of daydreaming about launching a counter-coup. Let Perikatan implode. Even if Perikatan manages to stay together until GE15, they won't be able to come to an agreement on seat allocations.

The reason for this has been well articulated in many places but in a nutshell, it is this: Bersatu, UMNO and PAS are all targeting the same demographic. None will want to budge an inch on seats that they consider theirs. And there are a lot of overlapping seats.