Sheraton Move 2.0

You've got to hand it to Dr M. Even when it seems to have run out of options, he still manages to find a way to stay in the game.

After everybody but Bersatu and Azmin's gang dumped him as their choice for PM, it seemed to be game over for him. But just as you are about to write him off, he comes back with a new surprise move that might upend everything.

He announced that his party, Bersatu (for which is is chairman once again after initially resigning), may nominate Muhyiddin as PM and Muhyiddin isn't averse to working with UMNO en bloc.

That means Sheraton Move 2.0 is on:
a) Bersatu: 26
b) Azmin & Gang: 11
c) UMNO/BN: 42
d) PAS: 18
e) GPS: 18
f) Warisan: 9

Total: 123 (more than enough to secure the majority)

Could this actually happen? Of course it could, in the sense that anything is possible in politics (especially Malaysian politics) but that is not the same thing as saying it's likely. In fact, it very unlikely for a number of reasons.

Firstly, let's just look at the numbers each bloc controls. Let's treat Bersatu and Azmin's Gang as one bloc of 37. If you treat UMNO and PAS as one bloc, that's 60. For the sake of simplicity, let's say the East Malaysian bloc is 27.

The biggest bloc of all is UMNO/PAS. Why would they agree to Muhyiddin being the PM when they have a much bigger bloc? Surely they would want one of their own (most likely an UMNO guy) as PM.

Will Muhyiddin be willing to settle for DPM (once again)? Unlikely. But why should they give the coveted position of PM to him when all his bloc has is 37? There will surely be a tussle for the top spot and that won't be settled very easily.

As for the East Malaysian bloc, without their 27, there is no majority. They will surely want tons of concessions, including the DPM position. That means the Peninsula parties have to give up that post. So, if UMNO gets the PM post, and East Malaysia gets the DPM post, where does that leave Bersatu?

Or let's say somehow Bersatu convinces UMNO to let them have the PM post, if the DPM post goes to East Malaysia, where does that leave UMNO (and PAS)? No plum positions even though they have the biggest bloc of 60?!?

The Pakatan Harapan formula of deferring to Bersatu despite it being only the third largest party in the coalition will not happen in the Sheraton Move 2.0 coalition. Nobody will give an inch because every bloc (and every party even) regard themselves as the kingmaker.

UMNO and PAS have got nothing to gain from being a minor player in a coalition headed by a smaller bloc. They would much rather go for snap elections.

As for the East Malaysian parties, they know that if they end up backing the wrong horse, they will become opposition players in a new federal government. They have to consider the possibility that PH (which has 92) might actually emerge the winner after all the horse-trading is done. 

At the end of the day, the reason this won't work is that Bersatu & Azmin's Gang simply do not have that much leverage. What do they bring to the table beyond their meager bloc of 37 MPs? Answer: Not much.

This is why UMNO and PAS would much rather take their chances with snap elections. Snap elections also make more sense to the East Malaysians because they could then wait for the outcome and then strike a deal with the winning team. That's a much safer approach than to taking a risk with Sheraton Move 2.0, which was ill-conceived even the first time around.