There is a very real possibility that we will be facing snap polls because no group of parties are able to form a majority.
At the moment, there are three groups vying for control of parliament:
a) Pakatan Harapan: 92
b) Muafakat Nasional (BN + PAS) = 42 + 18 = 60
c) Bersatu's Coalition: Bersatu (26) + Azmin's Gang (11) + GPS (18) + Warisan (9) = 64
In the next few days you will see a lot of horse-trading happening. It's unlikely that you will see PH's numbers get reduced. All the frogs in that coalition have already jumped so if there's a change in their numbers, it would probably go up, not down.
Muafakat Nasional and Bersatu's Coalition may try to collaborate in order to collectively achieve the majority. But there are many reasons to believe this won't happen.
What is more likely to happen is movement by some members of UMNO and PAS who believe PH is heading towards a majority. They will jump ship because they want to be with the winner.
You might also see movement from the Bersatu Coalition. Again, this would happen if some MPs are convinced PH will get the majority.
Where you could see movement en bloc is with the East Malaysian parties. It's very, very possible that Warisan will strike a deal with PH. Together with UPKO, that's 10 more to PH, bringing their tally to 102.
The big question is will they be able to get another 10 from UMNO, PAS, Bersatu & Azmin's gang, to bring their total to 112? If not, snap polls will happen.
Elections are not an ideal option for PH. They have the most number of MPs in Parliament and were, until very recently, the ruling coalition. They've got everything to lose if things don't go well.
In contrast, UMNO and PAS have got nothing to lose. They are in the Opposition and this is their only chance of getting back into power.
Bersatu and Azmin's Gang clearly prefer the backdoor channel but since that's not really available to them anymore, they also welcome snap polls.
Ironically, PH is the one best positioned to do well in a general election, for a number of reasons.
Firstly, they have their seat allocations all sorted out already. The only new seats they will have to allocate among themselves are the ones Bersatu and Azmin's gang had contested in. That shouldn't be too difficult to sort out, especially since DAP, PKR and Amanah get along well.
In contrast, there will be lots of overlaps in seats targeted by Bersatu, Azmin's Gang, UMNO and PAS. They are all going after the same demographic.
Normally seat negotiations is a process that takes many months to settle. If snap polls are called, there will be very little time for them to work out who will contest where.
Perhaps Bersatu and Azmin's Gang can quickly come to some kind of understanding. And perhaps UMNO and PAS can do the same. There would still be overlaps between Bersatu/Azmin and UMNO/PAS.
So you will see many predominantly Malay constituencies with both Bersatu and Muafakat contesting. They will end up splitting the "Ketuanan Melayu" vote.
In contrast, PH candidates will not see their target demographic split at all. People who had voted for PH in GE14 are likely to do so again in GE15, not because they are very happy with PH but because there is no other option. If you want a multi-racial, progressive government, there is only PH.
Imagine you are a voter who is very disappointed with PH for not instituting reforms fast enough. Do you then turn to Bersatu, Azmin, UMNO or PAS instead? Are they the better alternative? I can't imagine a single PH voter who believes that.
As for East Malaysia, PH should give GPS and Warisan a simple choice: Enter into a pact or we will run against you. PH has got nothing to lose by doing so. They might even gain a few seats that way.
Lastly, there is one other important factor to realize. PH parties are used to contesting with very little money. UMNO, in contrast only knows how to contest elections with billions of ringgit in their war chest. This is something they no longer have.
Snap polls, though risky and less than ideal, would actually favor PH. If elections are called, it will be Bersatu, Azmin's Gang, UMNO and PAS who will face an uphill battle. Not only will they be contesting against PH, they will be contesting against each other.
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