The least worst option

Surprise, surprise -- PAS and UMNO no longer support Dr M.

With the collapse of the Pakatan Harapan government and with neither side having a clear majority, there seems to be three options available to Dr M to form a new government:
a) Unity government
b) Minority government
c) Snap polls

The worst idea of all is that of a unity government. It's not that the concept itself is necessarily bad. There are countries with successful unity governments. But in the case of Malaysia, it's just not viable because of the parties involved. It makes absolutely no sense for PH parties to team up with UMNO or PAS.

You couldn't even call such a collaboration a marriage of convenience. A farce is more like it. Or you could call it a recipe for disaster. Whatever you call it, it has zero viability.

If PH parties couldn't even get along with Bersatu, which is a milder form of UMNO, imagine how it would be like with the real thing. And of course we all know what happened the last time they tried to collaborate with PAS.

According to press reports, Dr M was actually toying with the idea of a unity government -- but not involving UMNO and PAS as parties. Rather, he was considering inviting certain "acceptable" individuals from UMNO and PAS to join him in a unity government. This was roundly rejected by UMNO and PAS, which now have rescinded their support for Dr M to become PM.

The sooner Dr M forgets about this idea of a unity government, the better. It is far and away the absolute worst option of all. Snap polls is not quite as bad but why should he do this if he can cobble together a minority government (which he likely can do)?

There is one potential benefit to having a snap election though, which is that it would be an opportunity to wipe out BN and PAS. But there are risks involved too. What if BN and PAS makes gains (unlikely as that may be)? It's probably better not to take that risk and instead form a minority government. This will buy you time to implement policies (i.e. fulfilling the PH manifesto) that will win public support.

Let's have a look at the numbers. What's left of PH + Warisan and UPKO = 102 MPs. He needs another 10. He could easily get that from Bersatu even though they are now outside of PH (technically Warisan is outside of PH too). Logically speaking, he should be able to get all 26 from Bersatu. That would make up 128, a comfortable majority (he doesn't even have to look to Sarawak's GPS for support).

But a minority government isn't without its problems. Yes, he could probably get the numbers he needs to do this, with Warisan/UPKO and Bersatu's support. But what will happen to that support once a transition to Anwar takes place? Much, if not all, of it might suddenly dissipate. Then we're back to where we are right now: the collapse of the government.

The long term solution for PH is for PKR, DAP and Amanah to do sufficiently well in GE15 that they have enough seats to form a government without Warisan and without Bersatu. To do that, it has to field candidates in constituencies that these two parties will be contesting in.

If Warisan and Bersatu are unwilling to support an Anwar-led government anyway, there is no problem contesting against them. They would not be considered allies or even friendly parties in such a situation. So, contest against them and trounce them.

What this does mean though is that Anwar probably will not get the chance to become PM until after GE15. This naturally begs the question: Is this what Dr M wanted all along?

If one wants to be cynical, one could view this whole episode as a Machiavellian plot to thwart Anwar. But if one wants to be charitable, one could accept the narrative that this all happened because he wanted to keep his promise.

If Dr M is sincere about keeping his promise, the first thing he should do if he becomes the 8th PM is to appoint Anwar deputy prime minister. This would be a clear signal to everyone -- but notably to Warisan and Bersatu -- that he is totally and absolutely committed to the transition happening.

Dr M could then identify MPs within Warisan and Bersatu who are not so dead set against Anwar becoming PM and get buy-in from them. He could do that. But will he?

Seems like quite a stretch to expect him to do so. But according to what we are hearing from the likes of his communications czar Kadir Jasin, he quit as PM and Bersatu chairman precisely because his lieutenants in Bersatu were trying to force him to renege on his promise to hand over the reigns to Anwar. That was the reason cited!

If this narrative is to be believed, then by right he should do all that he can to make it possible for Anwar to take over, perhaps after APEC, and become PM for about two years before heading into GE15. This would give Anwar and PH the momentum to win convincingly.

The alternative is for him to carry on as PM for the full term. But to what end? Surely he does not want chaos to reign supreme upon his retirement. But that's exactly what will happen if he doesn't set in motion a succession plan for Anwar, something only he is uniquely qualified to do.

From hero to zero to hero

Dr M is a man of surprises. When he decided to join the then-Opposition and team up with PKR, DAP and Amanah to take on the mighty BN government, few could believe it. Few trusted him either.

But with his help, Pakatan Harapan did the impossible and toppled the BN government. Immediately, all of his past sins were forgiven and he was suddenly hailed as Malaysia's savior.

How quickly that changed over the course of two years. By the time the PH Council announced he would be allowed to decide when he should step down, Dr M was denounced by many as a power-hungry old man unwilling to let go.

Then came the big bombshell: The impending creation of a new coalition involving Bersatu, UMNO, PAS and East Malaysian parties.

Dr M's transition from hero to zero was complete. Or so it seemed.

The very next day, Dr M resigns as PM and Bersatu chairman, and a new narrative quickly emerged.

He was never part of the attempted backdoor takeover of the government, PH party leaders say. In fact, he opposed it, they claim.

Anwar appealed for him not to resign. DAP and Amanah announced they wanted him to continue as PM. Overnight, Dr M is a hero once again.

But there are so many twists and turns in this amazing story, it's hard to know what's the truth, especially since Dr M himself has not said anything about it.

So, how much of it is spin and how much of it is a reflection of what is actually happening? No one other than Dr M actually knows.

But there are a few things we do know:
a) Azmin and his gang are out of PKR (and therefore PH)
b) Bersatu is also out of PH

Overnight, PKR is suddenly rid of its most troublesome elements.

PKR should have gotten rid of Azmin and gang a long time ago. As for Bersatu, as an UMNO-like party, it never quite fit in with PH. So, it's better that it's out.

That does mean however that PH doesn't have the majority anymore. PKR now only has 39 MPs, while DAP and Amanah have 42 and 11 respectively. That makes up 92. They need 112 to form the government. Where are they going to get another 20 from?

While it's unclear whether Warisan has any loyalties to PH, it has said it supports Dr M to continue as PM. Warisan plus UPKO means another 10 MPs. So, we have 102. That leaves another 10 which could probably come from elements of Bersatu, which although is now outside of PH, still supports Dr M.

In fact, if all Bersatu MPs support Dr M, the total number of MPs who would want Dr M to remain as PM would be 102 + 26 = 128, which is a comfortable majority.

But can they form the government with Bersatu being outside the coalition? Well, Warisan was never part of the coalition but supports it. So Bersatu can theoretically do the same thing in order to form a government under Dr M.

It won't be a stable one though because there would naturally be a lot of suspicion about Bersatu. After all, they had clearly displayed a willingness to dump PH in favor of a new coalition (which never materialized).

As long as the coalition is led by Dr M, there could be detente between PH and Bersatu, for the sake of forming a government but once Dr M leaves the scene, and Anwar takes over, that detente is over.

Relations between Bersatu and the rest of PH were already fraught before they left the coalition, imagine what it would be like once Dr M is no longer in charge.

At the very least it would be an incredibly awkward cooperation. Would Anwar want any Bersatu leaders in his Cabinet?

In the long term, the best way for PH to form a stable government is for it to win enough seats in GE15 to form a majority without Bersatu.

It doesn't mean it then has to cast aside its frenemy. It could still involve Bersatu in the government but it would be doing so from a position of strength.

In the previous scenario, you had a weird situation where Bersatu was the third largest party in the coalition (or second smallest, depending on how you look at it) yet it was the dominant force in the government. It had a disproportionate number of ministers and everybody kowtowed to its leader, Dr M

Never again should the PH parties allow themselves to be cowed by a recalcitrant component party that is prepared to leave the coalition if it doesn't get its way.

So, what's going to happen next? The situation is still very fluid and it's impossible right now to tell how this will all unfold in the coming days. But indications are that a coalition headed by Dr M and comprising PH + Bersatu + Warisan will form the new government. It looks that way, anyway.

The obvious biggest loser in all this is Azmin and gang, which broke away and will never be allowed back into PH.

UMNO and PAS are also losers here. They thought they were going to become part of the new government but they got outfoxed by Dr M no less (the man they supposedly supported, at least in the case of PAS).

Bersatu may not be a big loser but it is not the big winner either. It would probably be accurate to describe it as a small loser. It had expected to be the Big Kahuna of the new coalition, but that plan has been scuttled now that Dr M reportedly wants nothing to do with the formation of a new government.

Now, from being a key player in a ruling coalition, it has been reduced to being a medium-sized party with no coalition affiliation. It's not quite in the political doghouse that Azmin and gang have now found themselves to be in, but it's not in a great position either.

Warisan has emerged from all this largely unscathed. It's not a winner but not a loser either.

New government? It's a numbers game

Speculation has reached fever pitch that Dr M is trying to form a new coalition government involving the following elements:

a) Bersatu (26)
b) Azmin faction of PKR (supposedly 15 or so)
c) BN (UMNO + MCA + MIC) (42)
d) PAS (18)
e) GPS (18)
f) Warisan (9)

Together (if everyone were to agree to a new coalition) they would presumably have a total of 26 + 15 + 42 + 18 + 9 = 128 (more than enough to form the majority).

The problem with the simplistic calculation above is that it assumes everybody in every one of those parties would agree to such a new alliance. But it would be wrong to assume that. Surely there would be some members in some of those parties who would object. Similarly, we also cannot assume that everyone in DAP and Amanah would be opposed to this. It's possible that some might jump ship and join the new coalition.

So in terms of the numbers (i.e. who has the majority) it's really hard to say. Is it conceivable that Dr M could cobble together a new coalition that can give him the numbers he needs to form a new government? It is possible course, and for all we know he might just be able to pull it off. But it would come at a terrible price.

Even if he were to be able to arrange a marriage of convenience among these competing parties in order to topple the current government, fractures will emerge very quickly. If Dr M thought it was hard dealing with a largely compliant DAP, PKR and Amanah for the past two years, imagine what it will be like for him dealing with four other parties, each of which think of itself as a king-maker and each of which will make their own demands of the other.

One big difference between the dynamics of PH and this new coalition is that the other PH component parties were not willing to use the nuclear option of pulling out of the coalition if it doesn't get its way (only Bersatu was willing to do that). So, instead of upsetting Dr M, they tried to appease him for two years.

Ironically, Dr M once said that unlike in BN, the parties within PH were more or less equals with each party needing the others in order for PH to be the government. Actually it wasn't true that they were more or less equals in terms of numbers. PKR has 50, DAP 42, Bersatu 26 and Amanah 11 MPs, so they are not actually equal. Yet, far from PKR and DAP behaving like the dominant parties in the coalition, it was Bersatu that always acted as if it was the indispensable one.

This will not be the case in a Bersatu-UMNO-PAS-GPS-Warisan coalition. Unlike in PH where the other component parties walked on eggshells for two year, Bersatu's prospective new partners will not hesistate to make their demands and, like Bersatu, they will threaten to use the nuclear option if they don't get their way. Imagine five Bersatus in one coalition. What a powder keg that will be.

It will be an incredibly unstable coalition with each of the five key parties believing themselves to be the linchpin of the coalition -- and behaving accordingly. But even if they don't implode before GE15, what such a team-up will do is give voters a clear and stark choice of the kind of government they want for the future of this country.

Bersatu never fitted well within PH. It was like a mini-UMNO within a multi-racial coalition. Its presence muddied PH's progressive, multiracial message. Once rid of the baggage that is Bersatu, PH could then project a clearer, more consistent vision of what it has to offer Malaysians, and contrast that to what the other side has to offer. The choice will be very clear for Malaysians. And that's a good thing.

Pakatan Nasional, anyone?

So there's a rumor going around about the prospect of a Pakatan Nasional, involving Bersatu, UMNO and PAS. Is there any truth to it? Probably not but for sure all three parties that are supposedly involved love the fact that these rumors exist, and all for the same Machiavellian reason. They like keeping the other parties around them anxious and uncertain.

For sure Dr M loves this. He's been doing for some time now. He loves keeping his Pakatan Harapan allies anxious and uncertain about everything. Is he going to ever let Anwar take over? Who knows. Is he secretly negotiating with PAS? Who knows. How about UMNO? Again, who knows. And what exactly does he talk about when he meets leaders from the opposition? Who knows.

Nobody knows, especially other leaders from Pakatan Harapan component parties, who are fearful of what Dr M might do if he should get upset with them. That's why, as I've said before, everybody's walking on eggshells, ever fearful of what Dr M might unleash in a worst case scenario.

Might he actually break up Pakatan Harapan? If he did that would be a classic case of cutting his nose to spite his face. But Dr M is unpredictable enough that he has his colleagues in Pakatan Harapan fearful that if push comes to shove, he might actually do that.

Nobody else would do that. Guan Eng and Kit Siang would never break up Pakatan Harapan just because they are unhappy about some things. Anwar would never do that. Neither would Mat Sabu. But Dr M... you never know about that wily old man! (At least that's what he wants his colleagues in Pakatan Harapan to think, and so far it's working).

If one looks at it objectively, it's hard to imagine Dr M seriously contemplating an alliance with UMNO and PAS, even though there's nothing he would love more than to Bersatu be the new UMNO -- the dominant Malay party that other component parties have to kowtow to. That's the political model he's known all his life and it's the model he's convinced is the best way to govern Malaysia.

He never believed in the all-component-parties-are-equal ethos of Pakatan Harapan. He just acquiesced to this because he desperately wanted to get rid of Najib. He much prefers the BN model. But Dr M surely must know those days of a super dominant Malay party lording over everyone else are over.

He's no fool. He knows that we live in a different era now and the electorate will never go back to the old BN model.

Before you utter: "But BN has been winning all those by-elections". Yes, it has because by-elections have little to no national consequences and the electorate is sophisticated enough to know that. That is why the voters use by-elections to send a message to the federal government that they are disappointed and fed up with the slow pace of reforms and the non-fulfillment of promises.

Those people who voted for the opposition to send Pakatan Harapan a clear message would not do the same thing if the federal government is in danger of falling back into the hands of BN. No way would they ever vote for BN in such a scenario.

Dr M must know that he would alienated all the people who had supported Pakatan Harapan if his party were to have anything to do with UMNO or PAS. And if you were to add all of the MPs these three parties have, it would still not be enough to form the federal government. Unless his calculations are that enough people from PKR and Amanah who would jump ship and join his party if he were to do something like this.

But even so, it would still be hard for this so-called Pakatan Nasional to get enough seats to control the parliament. Don't forget, if such an opportunistic alliance were to come to pass, there would also be people from all three parties who would leave the party. There are bound to be some people from UMNO and PAS who are opposed to any form of cooperation with Bersatu. There will also be some people from Bersatu who would quit that party rather than join hands with UMNO and PAS.

In other words, I can't imagine a scenario where a Pakatan Nasional alliance could get enough seats to form the federal government. The math just doesn't add up!

So, what is Dr M's ultimate game plan? What does he hope to achieve beyond making everyone anxious and afraid of him? That's a big imponderable. But with each passing day, it's looking more and more like he doesn't want to pass the baton onto Anwar.

He can say a million times that he plans to hand over the PM-ship to Anwar but nobody will believe him unless and until he sets the date -- which so far, he refuses to do.

This is classic Mahathirism. Keep your opponents and allies alike guessing, worried and fearful. We won't see less of this in the coming months. We'll see more of it.

Pakatan Harapan stuck in a rut -- but still better than BN

That Pakatan Harapan is stuck in a rut is without question. It has been for a long time now and even the defeat in Kimanis will not knock it out of that rut.

That's because nobody in Pakatan wants to rock the boat. So status quo it is. It's been like that for months now. And nothing has changed.

Mahathir continues to be coy about the transition date. We know he wants to stay as PM for at least until the end of this year. He's said he wants to preside over the APEC Summit, which is in November.

How long he will stay after that, nobody knows. He has said he would step down only after the country's problems have been solved. But that can mean anything!

So, we don't know when he will step down. It could be right after the APEC Summit, it might be months after, who knows!

There are members of PKR and DAP who are increasingly uncomfortable with this vague transition situation and want him to literally stick to two years, which means he should step down by May 2020. There is very little indication he is prepared to do that and no indication from the various Pakatan component party leaders that they are prepared to push him out either.

So, he's gonna be here for a while. What does that mean?

For one thing, it means the much-needed reforms that civil society had expected when Pakatan was voted into power will not happen. The Sedition Act is still around. Why? Because Mahathir doesn't want it removed. The same with all the other draconian laws.

As such, many people who voted for Pakatan are sorely disappointed, so much so that some were willing to vote for the Opposition, BN. They did so, not because they think BN is better but because they wanted to send Pakatan a clear message.

Sadly, after five clear messages have been sent, we are still seeing the status quo maintained.

Does that mean Pakatan will be a one-term government? I don't think so. If you happened to have been someone who voted Pakatan in the last election, ask yourself this: In the next general election, will your disappointment with Pakatan lead you to vote for BN instead?

The answer is obvious: Of course not.

The general election is no by-election with minimal consequences. Everybody knows that. When faced with a choice of a Pakatan or Barisan for the federal government, it's clear what right-thinking people would choose despite whatever disappointments they may harbour.

That's the main thing Pakatan has got going for it. Not that it is so good but that BN is sooooo bad that it's not even a viable option to consider, at least not for a general election (by-elections with close to zero political consequences is another thing).