Contest like you have only 92

So, Muhyiddin has been sworn in as PM. The majority he claims to have will surely be challenged once Parliament convenes. But when will that be? It's supposed to be March 9 but Muhyiddin, as PM, can ask the King to delay it until early June, apparently.

Having Parliament convene later will buy Muhyiddin some time to consolidate power and increase his numbers. But such a delay could also be a double-edged sword. He could also see his numbers decline if Anwar and Dr M are able to convince MPs to cross over to the Pakatan Harapan side.

But even if Anwar and Dr M are not so good at wooing frogs, there is also the likelihood (or perhaps certainty) of infighting among the Perikatan Nastional component parties.

Bersatu, which has 36 MPs, will consider itself to be the linchpin of the coalition because the PM is from there. BN and PAS, meanwhile, will consider themselves to be the key components because collectively they have 60 MPs, which dwarfs Bersatu's numbers. Meanwhile, GPS will make major demands because it considers itself to be the kingmaker.

Everybody will make demands and nobody will give an inch. This is the powder keg that is Perikatan Nasional.

UMNO and PAS may have given way to Muhyiddin just to get back into government again but there's no way they will allow Bersatu, with its meager 36 MPs, to assume the role of top dog in the coalition. They will want to have the final say on everything. But Bersatu, which is used to calling the shots, will never allow this.

Their leaders will say, "If we didn't initiate the Sheraton Move, there would be no Perikatan," to which UMNO and PAS will counter-claim: "If we didn't support you, there wouldn't be Perikatan too". Finally, GPS will chip in, "Hey, you Peninsula guys, don't forget, without our crucial support, you would be in the Opposition".

If you like fireworks, just sit back and you will not be disappointed. Give them a month before the infighting breaks out wide into the open.

Even in PH, where three parties (PKR, DAP and Amanah) had decided to kowtow to Bersatu, there was still major friction almost right from the start. What more a coalition of rivals like Perikatan, where nobody will defer to the others.

So, Muhyiddin has a tough choice ahead. Have Parliament convene as per schedule and he could end up being the Malaysian PM with the shortest term ever. Or delay Parliament's sitting and have internecine warfare see his numbers decline.

As for PH, since they claim to have the majority (at first is was 114, then it rose to 115 at one point and then back down to 114. Last I read, it's 112). That figure is going to swing wildly over the next few days and weeks as horsetrading on an unprecedented scale erupts on both sides.

If by the time Parliament convenes, PH actually has got at least 112 firmly on its side, of course they should go for a vote of no confidence. But if they don't quite have the numbers, they need to switch strategies and focus on winning GE15 instead.

That means not wasting any more time or energy on trying to back-door the backdoor government of Muhyiddin.

In terms of mindset, PH needs to think of itself as a coalition with 92 MPs. Not 102 (inclusive of Warisan & UPKO), not 108 (inclusive of Dr M's faction of Bersatu) and certainly not 114 or 115 (inclusive of crossovers). They need to accept the fact that what they've got -- and all they've got -- is 92.

With that in mind, they know they need to get another 20 more seats (at least) to gain control of the government. They cannot afford to rely on Bersatu at all. Nor can they rely on Warisan and UPKO. They need to get 112 on their own. Why? Because they know they can trust each other.

They have to contest in almost all of the 222 constituencies. That includes seats that Bersatu or Warisan would be contesting in. This of course would cause friction with Bersatu and Warisan/UPKO but so what?

Collaborating with them only makes sense if the aim is to give Muhyiddin a taste of his own backdoor medicine. If that fails once Parliament convenes, all bets are off.

A collaboration with these parties is actually hazardous to PH because they would have to accommodate them and make all sorts of concessions. Instead, PH should chart its own course and decide what they have to do to win over the rakyat in GE14. Like I said in a recent post, PH needs to win control the old fashioned way.

Full throttled horse trading ahead

And so it seems the Sheraton Move 2.0 triumphed over Pakatan Harapan 2.0. At least for now. But it will surely be tested once Parliament convenes and a vote of no confidence is introduced. Before we get to that though, let's look at how we got here.

Somehow or another Muhyiddin managed to convince the King that he had the numbers. That means at least 112 on his side although PAS has claimed the number is 114.

We don't know how he got to that number but we can take an educated guess. We were told the King asked the party heads to state how many MPs they each had on their side.

Muhyiddin probably claimed the 144 to comprise of:
36 from Bersatu (25 Bersatu + 11 from Azmin's faction)
42 from BN
18 from PAS
18 from GPS

Note that the Bersatu figure of 36 does not include Dr M even though he's technically still a member of Bersatu because he obviously does not support Muhyiddin for PM. But doesn't the 114 figure grossly exaggerate the numbers that he has going for him?

From Bersatu itself, we know that Dr M, Mukhriz and Syed Saddiq are not for Muhyiddin. Mukhriz has also claimed that Maszlee Malik, Eddin Syazlee Shith and Amiruddin Hamzah are also against Muhyiddin. That's six Bersatu MPs out of the Muhyiddin group already. PKR has said Richard Riot and Baru Bian have switched camps too.

If all this is true, Muhyiddin would only have 114 - 8 = 106.

But even if PH can prove this to be case, will they be able to convince the King to change his mind? Or will the King instead say put it to the test in Parliament?

The Parliament is set to convene March 9. If it does convene on that day, there will almost certainly be a vote of no confidence to test Muhyiddin's claim of having the majority.

But apparently, Muhyiddin could ask the King to postpone the opening of Parliament until the first week of June, which would buy him time to consolidate his numbers.

Meanwhile, Dr M has published a list of 114 names of people who back him as the PM of the country. Will the King accept this as proof? Or will he proceed with swearing in Muhyiddin as the PM and asking the warring factions to sort this matter out in Parliament through a vote of no confidence.

Whether the King appoints Muhyiddin or actually recognizes Dr M's claim, there's bound to be a vote of no confidence when Parliament reopens (either on March 9 or early June).

So, folks, you can expect a lot of horse-trading to go on until that vote of no confidence happens. On the PH side you can expect the original PH parties (PKR, DAP, Amanah) to stay firm. Let's assume Dr M's faction and Warisan/UPKO also remain solid. The only questionable ones are the newcomers who have just crossed over. Will they stay firm with PH? Nobody knows.

Whatever the outcome, the one good thing about this whole Sheraton Move saga is that it's flushed the Azmin faction and Bersatu out of PH. In the short run, this backdoor government move may end up costing PH control of the government but in the long run, it will help PH become a stronger coalition. 

In any event, GE15 is about two years away. PH is better positioned to do well in that one now that it's gotten rid of its most problematic components.

PH needs to win the old-fashioned way

Based on the latest media reports, it looks like Muhyiddin might be able to pull of the Sheraton Move 2.0 after all. UMNO and PAS have done yet another U-Turn and have decided to support him. Now, all he needs is GPS from Sarawak to endorse him and he will have the majority. Throw in Warisan and they will have a comfortable majority.

Of course many things are still in flux and the situation could be very different 24 hours later. Look at how Dr M was everyone's choice for PM at one point, and how quickly that support dissipated. At the time of writing though, Muhyidden looks to be within striking distance of the big prize.

Let's say he makes it and becomes Malaysia's 8th PM. What can PH do? It could try to entice some MPs to jump ship and cause Muhyiddin's government to collapse but that will only lead to another round of aggressive horse trading on both sides. The rakyat will really lose hope in all politicians if that happens.

Instead of that, a defeated PH should lick its wounds and start planning for GE15, which they have a chance of winning in a big way.

It should be noted that while PH is a coalition of parties that complement each other, Muhyiddin's group is a coalition of rivals. They may rejoice and be happy with one another if they succeed in forming a backdoor government but shortly after that you will see endless bickering as each components asserts its perceived importance to the group.

As mentioned in an earlier posting, if there's an election, the Bersatu-UMNO-PAS coalition would not not be able to sort out seat allocations. Even if they have two years to do it, they will not manage to achieve any kind of agreement because they are all going for the same target demographic: the Malay vote.

Each of those parties will want to increase their share of MPs post GE15. To do that, they have to contest in more constituencies. As a result there will be many Malay-majority constituencies in which Bersatu, UMNO and PAS all lay claim to.

Being a coalition of rivals, you will not see the kind of give-and-take spirit that exists in PH. So, you will have constituencies where Bersatu and UMNO or Bersatu and PAS or UMNO and PAS will clash.

If you look at how PH operated in the past 22 months and concluded that it was too fractious, imagine how utterly chaotic it will be for a Bersatu-UMNO-PAS-GPS-Warisan coalition. There will be endless fighting literally from Day 1.

If Muhyiddin succeeds in forming a government, PH needs to get over it as quickly as they can and start preparing for GE15 two years down the road. This is an opportunity for PH to really win big -- so that they will not need to rely on a problematic partner like Bersatu or any of the two East Malaysian blocks.

So forget about getting MPs to cross over, forget about making deals. Just win it the old fashioned way, by getting at least 112 MPs of their own. This is not only possible, it's actually very likely if they play their cards right.

Snap polls favor Pakatan Harapan

There is a very real possibility that we will be facing snap polls because no group of parties are able to form a majority.

At the moment, there are three groups vying for control of parliament:
a) Pakatan Harapan: 92
b) Muafakat Nasional (BN + PAS) = 42 + 18 = 60
c) Bersatu's Coalition: Bersatu (26) + Azmin's Gang (11) + GPS (18) + Warisan (9) = 64

In the next few days you will see a lot of horse-trading happening. It's unlikely that you will see PH's numbers get reduced. All the frogs in that coalition have already jumped so if there's a change in their numbers, it would probably go up, not down.

Muafakat Nasional and Bersatu's Coalition may try to collaborate in order to collectively achieve the majority. But there are many reasons to believe this won't happen. 

What is more likely to happen is movement by some members of UMNO and PAS who believe PH is heading towards a majority. They will jump ship because they want to be with the winner.

You might also see movement from the Bersatu Coalition. Again, this would happen if some MPs are convinced PH will get the majority.

Where you could see movement en bloc is with the East Malaysian parties. It's very, very possible that Warisan will strike a deal with PH. Together with UPKO, that's 10 more to PH, bringing their tally to 102.

The big question is will they be able to get another 10 from UMNO, PAS, Bersatu & Azmin's gang, to bring their total to 112? If not, snap polls will happen.

Elections are not an ideal option for PH. They have the most number of MPs in Parliament and were, until very recently, the ruling coalition. They've got everything to lose if things don't go well.

In contrast, UMNO and PAS have got nothing to lose. They are in the Opposition and this is their only chance of getting back into power.

Bersatu and Azmin's Gang clearly prefer the backdoor channel but since that's not really available to them anymore, they also welcome snap polls.

Ironically, PH is the one best positioned to do well in a general election, for a number of reasons.

Firstly, they have their seat allocations all sorted out already. The only new seats they will have to allocate among themselves are the ones Bersatu and Azmin's gang had contested in. That shouldn't be too difficult to sort out, especially since DAP, PKR and Amanah get along well.

In contrast, there will be lots of overlaps in seats targeted by Bersatu, Azmin's Gang, UMNO and PAS. They are all going after the same demographic.

Normally seat negotiations is a process that takes many months to settle. If snap polls are called, there will be very little time for them to work out who will contest where.

Perhaps Bersatu and Azmin's Gang can quickly come to some kind of understanding. And perhaps UMNO and PAS can do the same. There would still be overlaps between Bersatu/Azmin and UMNO/PAS.

So you will see many predominantly Malay constituencies with both Bersatu and Muafakat contesting. They will end up splitting the "Ketuanan Melayu" vote.

In contrast, PH candidates will not see their target demographic split at all. People who had voted for PH in GE14 are likely to do so again in GE15, not because they are very happy with PH but because there is no other option. If you want a multi-racial, progressive government, there is only PH.

Imagine you are a voter who is very disappointed with PH for not instituting reforms fast enough. Do you then turn to Bersatu, Azmin, UMNO or PAS instead? Are they the better alternative? I can't imagine a single PH voter who believes that.

As for East Malaysia, PH should give GPS and Warisan a simple choice: Enter into a pact or we will run against you. PH has got nothing to lose by doing so. They might even gain a few seats that way.

Lastly, there is one other important factor to realize. PH parties are used to contesting with very little money. UMNO, in contrast only knows how to contest elections with billions of ringgit in their war chest. This is something they no longer have.

Snap polls, though risky and less than ideal, would actually favor PH. If elections are called, it will be Bersatu, Azmin's Gang, UMNO and PAS who will face an uphill battle. Not only will they be contesting against PH, they will be contesting against each other.

Sheraton Move 2.0

You've got to hand it to Dr M. Even when it seems to have run out of options, he still manages to find a way to stay in the game.

After everybody but Bersatu and Azmin's gang dumped him as their choice for PM, it seemed to be game over for him. But just as you are about to write him off, he comes back with a new surprise move that might upend everything.

He announced that his party, Bersatu (for which is is chairman once again after initially resigning), may nominate Muhyiddin as PM and Muhyiddin isn't averse to working with UMNO en bloc.

That means Sheraton Move 2.0 is on:
a) Bersatu: 26
b) Azmin & Gang: 11
c) UMNO/BN: 42
d) PAS: 18
e) GPS: 18
f) Warisan: 9

Total: 123 (more than enough to secure the majority)

Could this actually happen? Of course it could, in the sense that anything is possible in politics (especially Malaysian politics) but that is not the same thing as saying it's likely. In fact, it very unlikely for a number of reasons.

Firstly, let's just look at the numbers each bloc controls. Let's treat Bersatu and Azmin's Gang as one bloc of 37. If you treat UMNO and PAS as one bloc, that's 60. For the sake of simplicity, let's say the East Malaysian bloc is 27.

The biggest bloc of all is UMNO/PAS. Why would they agree to Muhyiddin being the PM when they have a much bigger bloc? Surely they would want one of their own (most likely an UMNO guy) as PM.

Will Muhyiddin be willing to settle for DPM (once again)? Unlikely. But why should they give the coveted position of PM to him when all his bloc has is 37? There will surely be a tussle for the top spot and that won't be settled very easily.

As for the East Malaysian bloc, without their 27, there is no majority. They will surely want tons of concessions, including the DPM position. That means the Peninsula parties have to give up that post. So, if UMNO gets the PM post, and East Malaysia gets the DPM post, where does that leave Bersatu?

Or let's say somehow Bersatu convinces UMNO to let them have the PM post, if the DPM post goes to East Malaysia, where does that leave UMNO (and PAS)? No plum positions even though they have the biggest bloc of 60?!?

The Pakatan Harapan formula of deferring to Bersatu despite it being only the third largest party in the coalition will not happen in the Sheraton Move 2.0 coalition. Nobody will give an inch because every bloc (and every party even) regard themselves as the kingmaker.

UMNO and PAS have got nothing to gain from being a minor player in a coalition headed by a smaller bloc. They would much rather go for snap elections.

As for the East Malaysian parties, they know that if they end up backing the wrong horse, they will become opposition players in a new federal government. They have to consider the possibility that PH (which has 92) might actually emerge the winner after all the horse-trading is done. 

At the end of the day, the reason this won't work is that Bersatu & Azmin's Gang simply do not have that much leverage. What do they bring to the table beyond their meager bloc of 37 MPs? Answer: Not much.

This is why UMNO and PAS would much rather take their chances with snap elections. Snap elections also make more sense to the East Malaysians because they could then wait for the outcome and then strike a deal with the winning team. That's a much safer approach than to taking a risk with Sheraton Move 2.0, which was ill-conceived even the first time around.