What to make of Anwar's bid to become PM

 

There are a few things we know and a few things we don't know relating to Anwar's bid to become PM.

Let's start with what we know:
a) We know that he's pretty much got Harapan behind him.
b) We know that whatever numbers he's got, it doesn't include Dr M's 5 MPs from Pejuang.
c) We know (thanks to Zahid) there are some UMNO MPs supporting Anwar.

What can we don't know:
a) Who are the UMNO MPs that support him?
b) Does he have anyone from GPS and PAS (maybe a few from each
c) Is Warisan behind him? (That's not a given).

The big question on everybody's mind is whether Anwar really has the numbers or is he just bluffing? If he's bluffing, this is really high stakes poker he's playing. If it's proven in the end that he does not have the numbers, his reputation will take a fall that he will never recover from.

That alone makes me think he's not bluffing. He probably does have the numbers, with support from some individual members of UMNO, PAS, GPS and perhaps Warisan. If you add it all up, it could be a comfortable majority, even without Pejuang's 5 MPs.

The problem is all those guys who are supporting him will surely want plum positions or promises of this or that. Anwar has said that no deals have been made. And one would think that he is savvy enough to know that if he make some blatantly corrupt deals, he's finished. So, perhaps they are supporting him simply because they see him as the so-called "lesser evil" compared to Muhyiddin.

But short of any kind of special deals or promises made, how can that be? What could Anwar offer them that Muhyiddin can't or won't, especially if no deal has been made? That's an imponderable.

The other natural question is how can such a government, cobbled up by taking in various individuals from here and there, be a stable one? If these Johnny-Come-Lately supporters can abandon Muhyiddin in search of "greener pastures" what is to say they won't do the same to Anwar when they see a better opportunity?

Of course the King has a crucial role to play here. If he interviews each and everyone of the crossover MPs, he could impress upon them that he really wants to know how serious they are about supporting Anwar as the new PM, and he could tell them he won't take it kindly if they keep switching sides. The King has a lot of moral authority and it would be a brave MP who dares to make a fool out of the King.

Whatever the case, it looks like Muhyiddin's days as PM are numbered. As it is he only has a majority of two MPs in Parliament. That's pretty damn slim. His government could easily crumble any time. And from the sounds of it, there are at least two UMNO MPs not happy with him. So, it's just a matter of time.

The real question is whether Anwar, assuming he can cobble together a majority, is able form a stable and steady government. That is the big unknown.

The government they deserve

 

It is said that people get the government they deserve. Well, the people of Sabah have spoken and they got the government they deserve. Good luck to them!

The great comeuppance is coming

 

Against all odds, Pakatan Harapan wins GE14, allowing Dr M to become Prime Minister once again. Based on the agreement all component parties had made, Dr M would be PM for a good two years, after which he would pass the baton to Anwar. Dr M had a real chance to right all the wrongs of the past and chart a bright new future for Malaysia.

Instead, what did he do? From the get-go, he decided to thwart Anwar's chances of becoming PM. Now, after all that Machiavellian scheming, it looks like the one thing he was dead set on preventing is going to happen.

As for Muhyiddin and Azmin, what they did was nothing short of a betrayal of the rakyat's choice. Any way you slice it, it was a betrayal. The rakyat voted for Harapan, not for Perikatan (which didn't even exist then). They subverted the will of the people and after a matter of months, the tables look like they are turning.

As for all the frogs at every level, who quickly abandoned Harapan to join Perikatan, it looks like they all backed the wrong horse. Will they be so brazen as to ask for permission to jump back to Anwar's side? Possible. Such frogs know no shame. But good luck to them if they think they will be accepted.

Yes, karma works. The great comeuppance is coming.

Pejuang as kingmaker?

 

Dr M has predicted that his new party, Pejuang, will win around 30 seats in the next elections and that it will then be in a position to become kingmaker.

Now, I've said many times in the past that in GE15, Harapan parties must contest in seats previously contested by Bersatu. That should include seats being contested by former Bersatu (turned Pejuang) members.

Why?

Because they are not allied to Harapan. If a party is not allied to you, why should you give way to it? Would Bersatu, UMNO or PAS give way to Pejuang? No way. So why should any Harapan parties?

In fact, I've long argued that Harapan should consider contesting against Warisan too. Why? For the same reason. Warisan is not a (true) ally of Harapan. Its commitment has all along been to Mahathir, not to Harapan.

Don't forget that Shafie rejected the proposal that Anwar become the PM designate for Harapan. There's no indication that his position on that matter has changed. But Harapan's PM designate is Anwar. As such, Warisan cannot be considered an ally. It's not the enemy but it's not an ally that can be depended on.

So, unless something formal can be drawn up whereby Warisan aligns itself formally to Harapan and agrees to accept Harapan's candidate for PM, there's no reason why Harapan should give way to Warisan either.

Harapan has to win enough seats in GE15, on its own steam, to form the government. That means at least 112 seats, on its own. It cannot rely on Warisan's numbers to add to that tally and it most certainly cannot rely on Pejuang, which has already declared publicly that it will want to play the role of kingmaker!

People don't like a backdoor government

 

A recent article in The Star asked why the Chinese political ground seems to be so cold towards Muhyiddin. I believe it's not just the Chinese but anyone who had voted for Harapan in the last elections would be cold towards him and the Perikatan government.

Why?

For the simple reason that a backdoor government subverts the will of the electorate. No one is arguing that the way Perikatan came to power is illegal. But just because something is legal doesn't mean it's ethical.

The people voted for Harapan, which consisted of PKR, DAP, Amanah and Bersatu. Perikatan is basically UMNO, PAS and Bersatu (yes, MIC and MCA are in there but they are pretty inconsequential in the grand scheme of things). Perikatan is clearly not what the people voted for.

UMNO is itching for a snap election. PAS seems keen too. Bersatu less so, for obvious reasons. It knows it's likely to be wiped out if snap polls were to be held soon. First of all, UMNO has already said it's not going to give way to Bersatu, so there are extremely few seats it can contest in. And of those, only a small handful might win. Muhyiddin might win but who else? Azmin? Don't be too sure of that. Or of the others.

So, Bersatu will go from being a small party to being a mosquito party if snap polls were held. But would UMNO do any better than it did in GE14? There's no compelling reason why the results would be better for it this time around.

In order for it to do better, it has to win seats that it had lost to Harapan the last time around. Although people were rightly disappointed that Harapan did not bring about the reforms it had promised, would those very same people turn to UMNO for such reforms?

As for PAS, there is also no compelling argument for why it should do any better. In fact, it is likely to do worse. You must remember, in GE14, when people voted for PAS, they were voting for the Opposition (opposition to BN, in general, and UMNO, in particular). Those people obviously did not like the BN government. Now that PAS is in cahoots with UMNO, will those very same people still vote for PAS? Some might. But some will not. Those who voted for PAS because they wanted to kick BN and UMNO out of power are not going to vote for PAS anymore.

It is said that people have short memories and this may be true but the Sheraton Move is not something the electorate will forget very easily. Subverting the will of the voting public is not something people will easily forget. And they will remember that going into the polls.