PH needs to win the old-fashioned way

Based on the latest media reports, it looks like Muhyiddin might be able to pull of the Sheraton Move 2.0 after all. UMNO and PAS have done yet another U-Turn and have decided to support him. Now, all he needs is GPS from Sarawak to endorse him and he will have the majority. Throw in Warisan and they will have a comfortable majority.

Of course many things are still in flux and the situation could be very different 24 hours later. Look at how Dr M was everyone's choice for PM at one point, and how quickly that support dissipated. At the time of writing though, Muhyidden looks to be within striking distance of the big prize.

Let's say he makes it and becomes Malaysia's 8th PM. What can PH do? It could try to entice some MPs to jump ship and cause Muhyiddin's government to collapse but that will only lead to another round of aggressive horse trading on both sides. The rakyat will really lose hope in all politicians if that happens.

Instead of that, a defeated PH should lick its wounds and start planning for GE15, which they have a chance of winning in a big way.

It should be noted that while PH is a coalition of parties that complement each other, Muhyiddin's group is a coalition of rivals. They may rejoice and be happy with one another if they succeed in forming a backdoor government but shortly after that you will see endless bickering as each components asserts its perceived importance to the group.

As mentioned in an earlier posting, if there's an election, the Bersatu-UMNO-PAS coalition would not not be able to sort out seat allocations. Even if they have two years to do it, they will not manage to achieve any kind of agreement because they are all going for the same target demographic: the Malay vote.

Each of those parties will want to increase their share of MPs post GE15. To do that, they have to contest in more constituencies. As a result there will be many Malay-majority constituencies in which Bersatu, UMNO and PAS all lay claim to.

Being a coalition of rivals, you will not see the kind of give-and-take spirit that exists in PH. So, you will have constituencies where Bersatu and UMNO or Bersatu and PAS or UMNO and PAS will clash.

If you look at how PH operated in the past 22 months and concluded that it was too fractious, imagine how utterly chaotic it will be for a Bersatu-UMNO-PAS-GPS-Warisan coalition. There will be endless fighting literally from Day 1.

If Muhyiddin succeeds in forming a government, PH needs to get over it as quickly as they can and start preparing for GE15 two years down the road. This is an opportunity for PH to really win big -- so that they will not need to rely on a problematic partner like Bersatu or any of the two East Malaysian blocks.

So forget about getting MPs to cross over, forget about making deals. Just win it the old fashioned way, by getting at least 112 MPs of their own. This is not only possible, it's actually very likely if they play their cards right.

Snap polls favor Pakatan Harapan

There is a very real possibility that we will be facing snap polls because no group of parties are able to form a majority.

At the moment, there are three groups vying for control of parliament:
a) Pakatan Harapan: 92
b) Muafakat Nasional (BN + PAS) = 42 + 18 = 60
c) Bersatu's Coalition: Bersatu (26) + Azmin's Gang (11) + GPS (18) + Warisan (9) = 64

In the next few days you will see a lot of horse-trading happening. It's unlikely that you will see PH's numbers get reduced. All the frogs in that coalition have already jumped so if there's a change in their numbers, it would probably go up, not down.

Muafakat Nasional and Bersatu's Coalition may try to collaborate in order to collectively achieve the majority. But there are many reasons to believe this won't happen. 

What is more likely to happen is movement by some members of UMNO and PAS who believe PH is heading towards a majority. They will jump ship because they want to be with the winner.

You might also see movement from the Bersatu Coalition. Again, this would happen if some MPs are convinced PH will get the majority.

Where you could see movement en bloc is with the East Malaysian parties. It's very, very possible that Warisan will strike a deal with PH. Together with UPKO, that's 10 more to PH, bringing their tally to 102.

The big question is will they be able to get another 10 from UMNO, PAS, Bersatu & Azmin's gang, to bring their total to 112? If not, snap polls will happen.

Elections are not an ideal option for PH. They have the most number of MPs in Parliament and were, until very recently, the ruling coalition. They've got everything to lose if things don't go well.

In contrast, UMNO and PAS have got nothing to lose. They are in the Opposition and this is their only chance of getting back into power.

Bersatu and Azmin's Gang clearly prefer the backdoor channel but since that's not really available to them anymore, they also welcome snap polls.

Ironically, PH is the one best positioned to do well in a general election, for a number of reasons.

Firstly, they have their seat allocations all sorted out already. The only new seats they will have to allocate among themselves are the ones Bersatu and Azmin's gang had contested in. That shouldn't be too difficult to sort out, especially since DAP, PKR and Amanah get along well.

In contrast, there will be lots of overlaps in seats targeted by Bersatu, Azmin's Gang, UMNO and PAS. They are all going after the same demographic.

Normally seat negotiations is a process that takes many months to settle. If snap polls are called, there will be very little time for them to work out who will contest where.

Perhaps Bersatu and Azmin's Gang can quickly come to some kind of understanding. And perhaps UMNO and PAS can do the same. There would still be overlaps between Bersatu/Azmin and UMNO/PAS.

So you will see many predominantly Malay constituencies with both Bersatu and Muafakat contesting. They will end up splitting the "Ketuanan Melayu" vote.

In contrast, PH candidates will not see their target demographic split at all. People who had voted for PH in GE14 are likely to do so again in GE15, not because they are very happy with PH but because there is no other option. If you want a multi-racial, progressive government, there is only PH.

Imagine you are a voter who is very disappointed with PH for not instituting reforms fast enough. Do you then turn to Bersatu, Azmin, UMNO or PAS instead? Are they the better alternative? I can't imagine a single PH voter who believes that.

As for East Malaysia, PH should give GPS and Warisan a simple choice: Enter into a pact or we will run against you. PH has got nothing to lose by doing so. They might even gain a few seats that way.

Lastly, there is one other important factor to realize. PH parties are used to contesting with very little money. UMNO, in contrast only knows how to contest elections with billions of ringgit in their war chest. This is something they no longer have.

Snap polls, though risky and less than ideal, would actually favor PH. If elections are called, it will be Bersatu, Azmin's Gang, UMNO and PAS who will face an uphill battle. Not only will they be contesting against PH, they will be contesting against each other.

Sheraton Move 2.0

You've got to hand it to Dr M. Even when it seems to have run out of options, he still manages to find a way to stay in the game.

After everybody but Bersatu and Azmin's gang dumped him as their choice for PM, it seemed to be game over for him. But just as you are about to write him off, he comes back with a new surprise move that might upend everything.

He announced that his party, Bersatu (for which is is chairman once again after initially resigning), may nominate Muhyiddin as PM and Muhyiddin isn't averse to working with UMNO en bloc.

That means Sheraton Move 2.0 is on:
a) Bersatu: 26
b) Azmin & Gang: 11
c) UMNO/BN: 42
d) PAS: 18
e) GPS: 18
f) Warisan: 9

Total: 123 (more than enough to secure the majority)

Could this actually happen? Of course it could, in the sense that anything is possible in politics (especially Malaysian politics) but that is not the same thing as saying it's likely. In fact, it very unlikely for a number of reasons.

Firstly, let's just look at the numbers each bloc controls. Let's treat Bersatu and Azmin's Gang as one bloc of 37. If you treat UMNO and PAS as one bloc, that's 60. For the sake of simplicity, let's say the East Malaysian bloc is 27.

The biggest bloc of all is UMNO/PAS. Why would they agree to Muhyiddin being the PM when they have a much bigger bloc? Surely they would want one of their own (most likely an UMNO guy) as PM.

Will Muhyiddin be willing to settle for DPM (once again)? Unlikely. But why should they give the coveted position of PM to him when all his bloc has is 37? There will surely be a tussle for the top spot and that won't be settled very easily.

As for the East Malaysian bloc, without their 27, there is no majority. They will surely want tons of concessions, including the DPM position. That means the Peninsula parties have to give up that post. So, if UMNO gets the PM post, and East Malaysia gets the DPM post, where does that leave Bersatu?

Or let's say somehow Bersatu convinces UMNO to let them have the PM post, if the DPM post goes to East Malaysia, where does that leave UMNO (and PAS)? No plum positions even though they have the biggest bloc of 60?!?

The Pakatan Harapan formula of deferring to Bersatu despite it being only the third largest party in the coalition will not happen in the Sheraton Move 2.0 coalition. Nobody will give an inch because every bloc (and every party even) regard themselves as the kingmaker.

UMNO and PAS have got nothing to gain from being a minor player in a coalition headed by a smaller bloc. They would much rather go for snap elections.

As for the East Malaysian parties, they know that if they end up backing the wrong horse, they will become opposition players in a new federal government. They have to consider the possibility that PH (which has 92) might actually emerge the winner after all the horse-trading is done. 

At the end of the day, the reason this won't work is that Bersatu & Azmin's Gang simply do not have that much leverage. What do they bring to the table beyond their meager bloc of 37 MPs? Answer: Not much.

This is why UMNO and PAS would much rather take their chances with snap elections. Snap elections also make more sense to the East Malaysians because they could then wait for the outcome and then strike a deal with the winning team. That's a much safer approach than to taking a risk with Sheraton Move 2.0, which was ill-conceived even the first time around. 

The straw that broke the camel's back

Pakatan Harapan's parties finally said enough is enough to Mahathir and withdrew their support for him to become PM once again. They nominated Anwar instead. Whether they will be able to get enough MPs to form a majority in parliament is yet to be seen (officially they have 92 and 112 is needed). But one thing is for sure, they have finally ditched Dr M.

This was a long time coming. For the past 22 months or so, all the PH leaders had been walking on eggshells, careful not to upset Dr M lest he goes for the "nuclear option" and blows up the coalition.

This was the thing they feared most. So they kowtowed to him and let him have his way on most things. Their thinking was that since Dr M had promised to be interim PM for two years, they could bite their lips and kowtow to him until the transition happens. Better not rock the boat.

That proved to be a disastrous policy. Appeasement never results in good behavior. It makes the other party think you are a pushover and actually encourages bad behavior. But ever fearful of Dr M's potential use of the nuclear option, they decided appeasement would be their policy.

What if he refuses to relinquish the post after two years? "We'll cross that bridge when we get there" seemed to be their answer to that.

So, they kowtowed and waited and kowtowed and waited and kowtowed and waited, hoping that Dr M will eventually reward them by keeping to his promise.

Even though it was perfectly reasonable, and totally logical, for them to expect Dr M to set a transition date, they ended up agreeing to letting him be the one to decide when he should step down.

Yet, despite this remarkable concession Bersatu leaders and Azmin pushed ahead with their plan to set up a backdoor coalition government involving UMNO, PAS, GPS and Warisan. In doing so, they caused the PH government to collapse.

Dr M's resignation as PM and Bersatu chairman took everyone (including Muhyiddin and Azmin) by surprise. Why did he do so? According to his communications czar, Kadir Jasin, it was because he didn't want to be forced to renege on his promise to Anwar.

Really? Really?! Really?!?

Sounds incredible but the top leaders of PH decided to give him the benefit of the doubt and actually decided to support him to be the 8th PM of this country.

Since they decided to take him at his word, it was perfectly reasonable for PH leaders to expect Dr M to help repair the damage that his party, Bersatu, and his blue eyed boy, Azmin, had wrought.

So, they invited him to attend their presidential council meeting to discuss ways to rebuild the coalition. He declined to be a part of that. Instead, he wanted to do his own thing which was to form a unity government consisting of people across the political spectrum.

This is a terrible idea for a variety of reasons.

Firstly, such a government would have a Cabinet chosen by Dr M alone without any input of consultation with other parties. Secondly, such a government is almost certain to include the very people who caused the downfall of the PH government, as well as some leaders from UMNO and PAS. Thirdly, everybody in this government would be beholden to Dr M. You can forget about any transition of power to Anwar.

It's clear that this was designed for him to be the PM for the full term. So much for Kadir Jasin's spin about him wanting to keep his promise to Anwar.

His decision to forge a unity government instead of helping to rebuild the PH government was the tipping point that made the PH leaders finally give up on him.

It was a long time coming but they were no longer under any illusions about Dr M's intentions. So, they pulled the rug underneath him and launched their own game plan.

No more kowtowing to Dr M in the hopes that he would keep his promise. No more walking on eggshells. No more appeasement. Instead, they would nominate Anwar to become the 8th PM. But can they get the numbers? It won't be easy but it's doable.

What about Dr M? Can he get the numbers now that he has lost PH's support (that's a whopping 92 seats gone)? If you do the math, you will see there is no conceivable configuration that would give Dr M the majority he needs to become PM.

He currently has a maximum of 64 seats in his favour (26 from Bersatu, 11 from Azmin's gang, 18 from GPS and 9 from Warisan). He will need another 48 from somewhere else.

What about going back to UMNO and PAS, as unpalatable as that may be to him? If he's desperate enough, this is something he could try to do. But can it be done?

They say politics is the art of the impossible. But this is pretty impossible. UMNO and PAS had already seen the King and said they no longer supported Dr M to be PM. Dr M, himself, had gone on television and said he would never work with UMNO.

Imagine if they all did an about face and approached the King again. You could easily imagine him saying, "Wait a minute, UMNO and PAS, didn't you just tell me you had rejected Dr M? And Dr M, didn't you just go on TV and tell the whole nation you would never work with UMNO?"

Ultimately, what happened was Dr M overplayed his hand with PH, which he had taken for granted all this while. He probably knew that UMNO and PAS's support was never solid. But he never expected PH to ditch him.

After all, these were the same guys who kowtowed to him for 22 months and who agreed to let him decide when to step down. These were the same guys who immediately pledged to support him as PM despite the fact that it was his people who caused the government to collapsed. But his decision to decline helping them to rebuild the PH government was the straw that broke the camel's back.

Had he agreed to attend the PH meeting and use his clout with Bersatu, GPS and Warisan, to get a simple majority to reform the PH government, he would have become Malaysia's 8th PM. He could have then used the rest of this year to attend to whatever unfinished business he has, do the APEC thing, and retire a hero. Instead, he scored the biggest own goal of his political career.

Minority government led by Dr M or Anwar?

How quickly the tables have turned. At one point, just a few days ago, Dr M had the support of practically every party in town. Bersatu, Azmin's new bloc, UMNO, PAS, GPS parties of Sarawak, Warisan and yes, PKR, DAP and Amanah. Basically, everybody.At one point, he theoretically had 221 MPs out of 222 on his side.

Today, UMNO and PAS no longer support him to be PM. And neither do PKR, DAP and Amanah. It's not clear what the East Malaysian parties stance is right now but let's assume they haven't changed and still support him. Couple that with support from Bersatu and Azmin's faction and all that he's got are: 18 (GPS) + 9 (Warisan) + 26 (Bersatu) + 11 (Azmin's faction) = 64. That's not even half of what's needed to form a majority in parliament.

Pakatan Harapan parties have decided to go with Anwar. What they have is 42 (DAP) + 39 (PKR) + 11 (Amanah) = 92. That's not enough to form a majority but it's a whole lot more than 64.

So, what's going to happen next? Most likely a mad scramble to form a minority government. Dr M needs to find 48 MPs from somewhere to join his so-called "unity government" idea while PH needs to find 20 MPs.

Dr M has ruled out UMNO and PAS en bloc but is willing to take in individuals, so perhaps he can try to find a few in UMNO and a few in PAS to join him. But will they do so knowing that he's got quite a mountain to climb to get to 48?

Without PH supporting him it's hard to imagine him being able to rustle up enough additional MPs to achieve that elusive 112 figure.

It's much easier to imagine PH achieving that. If Warisan + UPKO decide to resume supporting PH like it did before the collapse, that's another 10 already. It's worth noting that while Warisan has publicly said it supports Dr M, it has not officially renounced its support of PH.

If PH can get Warisan to renew that support they need to find just another 10 more. The most obvious way would be to convince at least 10 from GPS to support PH instead of Dr M. Or it could be to get a few from GPS, a few from UMNO, a few from PAS and a few from Bersatu to break ranks and join a minority government.

It won't be easy but getting 10 others to support a minority government is a smaller hill to climb than the mountain that Dr M has to get over to achieve his unity government concept.

It's never a wise thing to underestimate Dr M but perhaps this is the first time in his political career that he clearly overplayed his hand. Without PH's support (which amounts to a whopping 92 seats), he will not be able to get the numbers.

Yet he thought he had the upper hand and refused to attend their meeting to try to restore the PH government, which is what the rakyat voted for in GE14. Restoring PH after his own party and Azmin's faction brought it down, would be the honorable thing to do. Instead, he decided to bulldoze ahead with his unity government concept.