The seeds of discontent (Part 3)

Somebody's clearly not happy!

"It is clear that UMNO, as the biggest bloc of MPs, has been sidelined in an unfair manner that can be seen in two matters," says UMNO Deputy President Mohamad Hasan. The two matters are UMNO being assigned to non-critical ministries, and Bersatu (including Azmin Ali's camp) taking the lion's share of portfolios.

"Coalition government should be based on propotionate representations and not dominated by any one party, and to make it more legitimate it must have written agreement between political parties involved," says Azalina Othman, adding that "UMNO sepatutnya layak diberikan Kementerian yang lebih significant seperti Kementerian Wanita, KDN, Kementerian Luar Bandar, MOF dan MOA".

Muhyiddin's cabinet does not reflect PN's en bloc spirit - Sharir

Umno tak selesa Azmin jadi menteri kanan - Tajuddin

Snap polls are the best for everyone

When May 18 comes around, there are four possible scenarios:
i) Vote of no confidence fails and Perikatan Nasional continues to be the government of the day
ii) Vote of no confidence succeeds with Pakatan Harapan having the majority. Muhyiddin asks for Parliament to be dissolved and King agrees. Snap polls ensue.
iii) Vote of no confidence succeeds with PH having the majority but King declines to dissolve the Parliament. PH is recognized as the government.
iv) Vote of no confidence succeeds but PH doesn't have the majority either (neither coalition does). Parliament is dissolved and snap polls ensue.

Are there any other potential scenarios than the ones listed above? I can't think of it. So, let's just say those are the only four possible outcomes.

Scenario 1: PN succeeds
At the time of writing, it looks like this is the most likely scenario with Muhyiddin having around 113 seats. It's very tight but it looks like he has the majority (for now).

Scenario 2: PH succeeds but snap polls ensue
In the event that PH succeeds with its vote of no confidence and actually has a majority, snap polls are likely to happen because Muhyiddin will surely ask for that in such a scenario. The King has the discretion to say no but usually the King acts on the advice of the PM.

Scenario 3: PH succeeds and is recognized as the government
Even if PH has the numbers, snap polls are more likely than PH being recognized as the government. If they have the majority, it would be a very slim one, maybe by a margin of one or two. That makes for a very unstable government as there will be a lot of party hopping happening. We can't have a situation where there are regular votes of no confidence happening and governments changing hands all the time. This is the least likely scenario.

Scenario 4: Vote of no confidence succeeds but nobody has the majority
At the time of writing, this is more likely to happen than scenario 2 or 3 as PH is unlikely to get a majority. But there could be enough discontented MPs in Perikatan (those who didn't get to become ministers or deputy ministers) that they could abandon PN without supporting PH. In this scenario, it's snap polls too.

So, out of the four scenarios, the most likely (at the time of writing) is 1 (PN stays in power). Second likely scenario is 4: (Nobody has the majority and snap polls are called). Third would be 2 (PH gets majority but snap polls are called). Least likely is 4 (PH gets majority and forms the government).

If you look at the Top 3 likely scenarios, they all involve elections. Scenario 1 may mean polls two to three years later. Scenario 4 and 2 means snap polls.

Whatever the case, I maintain that PH has the edge in any election. In the case of snap polls, PH has two things going for it. Firstly, seat allocations among its component parties have largely been sorted out. They just need to figure out who will contest where in Bersatu and Warisan seats. Yes, they must contest in all seats so they can get a majority without the need for outside help. It will be impossible for PN to sort out seat allocations so fast. The second thing PH has got going for them is that while PH can go for the Malaysian vote (Malay and non-Malays), PN can realistically only go after the Malay vote. And the Malay vote will still be split.

What about a general election two or three years down the road. It will actually be even worse for PN. Firstly, no amount of time will allow them to properly sort out seat allocations because Bersatu, UMNO and PAS are each going after the same vote. And none of the parties will give way to the other because they each obviously want to increase their numbers in Parliament. Secondly, even in cases where there is an agreement there is bound to be sabotage by disgruntled politicians who felt that constituency should have been given to him. Thirdly, after two years of PN rule, the rakyat will really want to throw them out.

So, actually the best scenario for PN is snap polls because if they somehow manage to win that, they will have another five years. Otherwise they are at most a two or three year government. Interestingly, the best scenario for PH is also snap polls because they are likely to win it.

So, snap polls are actually the best.

The seeds of discontent (Part 2)

I am disappointed in you. That's right, YOU!

First you had Parti Kerjasama Anak Negeri expressing disappointment that Sabah STAR president Datuk Dr Jeffrey Kitingan was not appointed a full minister.

Then, you had Bintulu MP Tiong King Sing rejecting the post of deputy national unity minister because he should be a full minister instead.

Now you have Azalina Othman saying: "Umno should have been given more significant ministries..."

You also have Cameron Highlands MP Ramli Mohd Nor lamenting: "It seems that the PN government has sidelined the voice of the Orang Asli in the peninsular."

It seems like Muhyiddin will have to appoint at least 112 ministers and deputy ministers to keep everyone in Perikatan happy. Will we see a new record for the world's biggest Cabinet?

The seeds of discontent (Part 1)

And so it begins.

Sabah party disappointed Jeffrey not made full minister

and...

Tiong rejects deputy minister post

Dr M's second miscalcuation

Dr M's first miscalculation was in assuming that Pakatan Harapan was so desperate to have him as PM that they would support him even as he rebuffs the PH government as a concept.

When he abruptly resigned as PM and as chairman of Bersatu, he enjoyed the support of practically every party and faction in Parliament. That probably gave him a false sense of security, so much so that when PH invited him to attend a meeting to discuss how to revive the PH government, he declined.

Instead, Dr M told them he wanted a Unity Government where he could pick and choose whomever he wanted. It would be an unprecedented system (in the Malaysian context) whereby he would be accountable to no one but everyone in the government would be beholden to him.

The Opposition balked at this and not surprisingly, so did PH. So instead, they nominated Anwar to be their PM should they be able to garner at least 112 MPs. It was only when Muhyiddin decided he, himself, would be the PM candidate that PH and Dr M hastily collaborated once again to try to thwart him. But by then it was too late.

Overplaying his hand and assuming PH would support him no matter what was miscalculation No 1. Miscalculation No 2 happened almost immediately after that. Amazingly, it was the exact same mistake!

The King had decided to recognize Muhyiddin as the one who is most likely to command the confidence of the majority of the MPs, so he was named the PM.The King then refused to see Dr M who claimed to have a list of 114 MPs who supported him as PM.

In response, Dr M embarked on a roadshow to explain the situation to the Bersatu grassroots. Remarkably, he decided to badmouth PH in general and Anwar in particular, blaming them for abandoning him.

What he conveniently neglects to mention was that PH actually supported him to be the PM. It was only when he refused to be the head of PH (and wanted his own Unity Government instead) that they decided not to support him anymore. They didn't abandon him. He was the one who abandoned PH.

Now, why on earth would he go around badmouthing Anwar when he clearly needs PH? His faction of Bersatu consist of maybe five MPs. With Warisan supporting him, that's another nine. So he has perhaps 14 MPs on his side. PH has 92.

In terms of numbers alone, he clearly needs PH more than PH needs him. But the problem is that all the while, over the past 22 months, the other PH parties kowtowed to him and he's gotten used to that.

This is probably why he thinks he can get away with badmouthing Anwar and still enjoy their support. He thinks PH wants to overthrow Muhyiddin so badly, they will do so at all cost, including having him as their PM candidate again, even as he badmouths their leader.

Well, it looks like PH has finally realized the folly of their appeasement ways. Wan Azizah has said that PH will likely go with Anwar as their PM candidate for any future PH 2.0 government.

This is the right move. If Dr M wants to lead PH again but only on his terms (no naming of Anwar as DPM, no transition date, etc), what's the point? The 14 seats that he can bring to the table is not worth having to put up with such nonsense.

Even if it means PH will be staying in the Opposition for some time, so be it. PH should use the opportunity to rebrand and rebuild itself ahead of GE15 rather than try to engineer some crossovers.

If they don't have the numbers, they should work towards winning the next election instead. They shouldn't waste time looking for defectors.

If you take in frogs, you run the risk of them jumping ship once someone dangles a better offer. You can't build a sustainable coalition on frogs.

Instead, PH should aim to win the right to form the government the old fashioned way: Winning an election convincingly.