Muhyiddin & Azmin's poor timing

I'm not one of those who are critical of the current government for the way it is handling the Covid-19 situation. Sure, the implementation of the lock-down was rushed and not well thought out. But as I had mentioned in my previous post, time is not exactly on our side. They had to act and they had to act fast. Improvements and modifications to the measures would have to be made as we go along.

But speaking of timing, Muhyiddin and Azmin couldn't have chosen a worse time to do their Sheraton Move. The country -- and the world, for that matter -- is almost certain to go into a recession due to the Covid-19 crisis which doesn't look like it will abate anytime soon.

Even if they do everything right from now on, the economy is going to go into a tailspin. The retail and service sector has pretty much ground to a halt and the outlook for the rest of the year (even after the lockdown is lifted) isn't rosey. Lots of people are going to lose their jobs. Lots of small businesses will close down.

No doubt, this isn't just a Malaysian phenomenon. It's happening all over the world. But as Bill Clinton's campaign once famously said: "It's the economy, stupid." If people are in dire straits come GE15, they will blame the government or at least want to boot them out in favor of an alternative that gives them hope for a better life.

They chose the timing to do their Sheraton Move. They will bear the consequences of it. Karma may not be instant but there's no escaping it.

The lock-down is a necessary, good move

I've been critical of the Sheraton Move that resulted in the backdoor government being set up by Muhyiddin and Azmin but since March 14, I've not written any new blog postings about this topic. I was too caught up with the Covid-19 crisis which seemed to be worsening by the day.

I've seen some criticism online about how this lock-down was not well thought out and so on. While I'm critical about how this Perikatan government was formed (legal but not ethical), I am not critical of their decision to quickly implement this lock-down.

I've watched videos of several experts saying that speed is crucial. You can't wait until everything is perfect to take action. The virus is spreading like crazy. You have to do something and do it fast. You can improve the implementation along the way. And that is being done.

Initially there was a lot of confusion about what is considered essential and what is non-essential. There have also been some U-turns about whether university students should go home or stay put; about whether inter-state travel requires a police permit or not, or whether it's even allowed for non-essential situations. All this is understandable when you want to quickly implement something fast. So, I am not critical of it.

The natural question on everybody's mind is whether this lock-down actually end on March 31. Muhyiddin has gone on TV to say that if necessary it will be extended. I suspect that if the situation pretty much stays the same, with over 100 new cases per day, it has to be extended. If the situation worsens -- even more new cases and more deaths -- then not only will it have to be extended, it probably has to be tightened up further. Perhaps like in Italy.

Businesses are suffering. Lots of people will lose their jobs. The economy will most likely go into a recession. But what's the alternative? No lock-down? That would result in something even worse. Imagine if we become like Italy or Spain.

This is from yesterday:

Italy on Wednesday reported 475 more deaths from the coronavirus, a new record high that brings the total number of victims in the country to 2,978.

Latest figures provided by the Italian Civil Protection Department show that COVID-19 cases in the country have now reached 28,710, a 10% rise from Tuesday.

The Italian government is mulling over whether to further strengthen its already strict containment measures, which have brought the country to a near-total lockdown.

And this too:

A locked-down Spain continued to edge closer to Iran as health officials announced Wednesday more than 2,500 coronavirus cases were recorded overnight, bringing up the tally well past 13,000.

Health officials reported there were 2,538 additional COVID-19 cases across Spain since Tuesday, bringing the rally to at least 13,716. There have been at least 558 deaths nationwide.

It's all pretty grim news. Let's just hope this first lock-down works and there is a decline in new cases because if it gets worse, we are looking at a longer and more severe lock-down. And it would be necessary.

The seeds of discontent (Part 3)

Somebody's clearly not happy!

"It is clear that UMNO, as the biggest bloc of MPs, has been sidelined in an unfair manner that can be seen in two matters," says UMNO Deputy President Mohamad Hasan. The two matters are UMNO being assigned to non-critical ministries, and Bersatu (including Azmin Ali's camp) taking the lion's share of portfolios.

"Coalition government should be based on propotionate representations and not dominated by any one party, and to make it more legitimate it must have written agreement between political parties involved," says Azalina Othman, adding that "UMNO sepatutnya layak diberikan Kementerian yang lebih significant seperti Kementerian Wanita, KDN, Kementerian Luar Bandar, MOF dan MOA".

Muhyiddin's cabinet does not reflect PN's en bloc spirit - Sharir

Umno tak selesa Azmin jadi menteri kanan - Tajuddin

Snap polls are the best for everyone

When May 18 comes around, there are four possible scenarios:
i) Vote of no confidence fails and Perikatan Nasional continues to be the government of the day
ii) Vote of no confidence succeeds with Pakatan Harapan having the majority. Muhyiddin asks for Parliament to be dissolved and King agrees. Snap polls ensue.
iii) Vote of no confidence succeeds with PH having the majority but King declines to dissolve the Parliament. PH is recognized as the government.
iv) Vote of no confidence succeeds but PH doesn't have the majority either (neither coalition does). Parliament is dissolved and snap polls ensue.

Are there any other potential scenarios than the ones listed above? I can't think of it. So, let's just say those are the only four possible outcomes.

Scenario 1: PN succeeds
At the time of writing, it looks like this is the most likely scenario with Muhyiddin having around 113 seats. It's very tight but it looks like he has the majority (for now).

Scenario 2: PH succeeds but snap polls ensue
In the event that PH succeeds with its vote of no confidence and actually has a majority, snap polls are likely to happen because Muhyiddin will surely ask for that in such a scenario. The King has the discretion to say no but usually the King acts on the advice of the PM.

Scenario 3: PH succeeds and is recognized as the government
Even if PH has the numbers, snap polls are more likely than PH being recognized as the government. If they have the majority, it would be a very slim one, maybe by a margin of one or two. That makes for a very unstable government as there will be a lot of party hopping happening. We can't have a situation where there are regular votes of no confidence happening and governments changing hands all the time. This is the least likely scenario.

Scenario 4: Vote of no confidence succeeds but nobody has the majority
At the time of writing, this is more likely to happen than scenario 2 or 3 as PH is unlikely to get a majority. But there could be enough discontented MPs in Perikatan (those who didn't get to become ministers or deputy ministers) that they could abandon PN without supporting PH. In this scenario, it's snap polls too.

So, out of the four scenarios, the most likely (at the time of writing) is 1 (PN stays in power). Second likely scenario is 4: (Nobody has the majority and snap polls are called). Third would be 2 (PH gets majority but snap polls are called). Least likely is 4 (PH gets majority and forms the government).

If you look at the Top 3 likely scenarios, they all involve elections. Scenario 1 may mean polls two to three years later. Scenario 4 and 2 means snap polls.

Whatever the case, I maintain that PH has the edge in any election. In the case of snap polls, PH has two things going for it. Firstly, seat allocations among its component parties have largely been sorted out. They just need to figure out who will contest where in Bersatu and Warisan seats. Yes, they must contest in all seats so they can get a majority without the need for outside help. It will be impossible for PN to sort out seat allocations so fast. The second thing PH has got going for them is that while PH can go for the Malaysian vote (Malay and non-Malays), PN can realistically only go after the Malay vote. And the Malay vote will still be split.

What about a general election two or three years down the road. It will actually be even worse for PN. Firstly, no amount of time will allow them to properly sort out seat allocations because Bersatu, UMNO and PAS are each going after the same vote. And none of the parties will give way to the other because they each obviously want to increase their numbers in Parliament. Secondly, even in cases where there is an agreement there is bound to be sabotage by disgruntled politicians who felt that constituency should have been given to him. Thirdly, after two years of PN rule, the rakyat will really want to throw them out.

So, actually the best scenario for PN is snap polls because if they somehow manage to win that, they will have another five years. Otherwise they are at most a two or three year government. Interestingly, the best scenario for PH is also snap polls because they are likely to win it.

So, snap polls are actually the best.

The seeds of discontent (Part 2)

I am disappointed in you. That's right, YOU!

First you had Parti Kerjasama Anak Negeri expressing disappointment that Sabah STAR president Datuk Dr Jeffrey Kitingan was not appointed a full minister.

Then, you had Bintulu MP Tiong King Sing rejecting the post of deputy national unity minister because he should be a full minister instead.

Now you have Azalina Othman saying: "Umno should have been given more significant ministries..."

You also have Cameron Highlands MP Ramli Mohd Nor lamenting: "It seems that the PN government has sidelined the voice of the Orang Asli in the peninsular."

It seems like Muhyiddin will have to appoint at least 112 ministers and deputy ministers to keep everyone in Perikatan happy. Will we see a new record for the world's biggest Cabinet?