Najib has a point

It's normal for politicians to spin things so that it makes them look good — or at least not bad.

Dr M says: "I remain loyal to my comrades who fought with me in the 14th general election."

Najib tweeted:

"If you had no intention to betray Harapan, you would have discussed with Harapan leaders before you resigned.

"Did you discuss or notify them before you went to see the Yang di-Pertuan Agong to hand in your resignation letter as PM?

"You didn't. Why? Be honest about what actually happened then," Najib tweeted in response to Malaysiakini's article.

While it's true that Dr M did not betray Harapan in the way that Muhyiddin and Azmin did, it cannot be said that he remained loyal to his comrades who fought with him in the 14th general election.

After he abruptly resigned as PM, his comrades invited him to attended a Harapan presidential council meeting to try to secure control over the government. Dr M rejected that. Instead he mooted something completely different, which was a unity government where he alone could pick and choose whom he wanted in his cabinet. Basically it would be a government where everyone would be beholden to him and he would be accountable to no one.

Not only did Harapan reject that. So did the other side. Everyone rejected it.

Najib has a good point. If he was so loyal to his comrades, why did he resign unilaterally, without discussing it with them first? The answer is obvious. He thought he could pull off his unity government plan without a hitch.

Backing the wrong horse?

I find it intriguing — and pretty amazing, actually — at the number of politicians who have jumped ship from Harapan and throw their lot with Muhyiddin and Azmin ad hoc coalition, called Perikatan.

This is a coalition with a majority of two. It's also a coalition of rivals. It will be a wonder if they can make it intact all the way to GE15. But even if they do, seat allocations will be a thorny issue, to say the least.

For the sake of discussion, let's just say they somehow managed to work out seat allocations so that whoever is the incumbent gets to defend their seat, it's highly unlikely that the frogs who jumped over will be elected.

Why? Because with a few exceptions, most people don't vote for personalities. They vote for the coalition they want to run the country. That's why when PAS was with Pakatan, even non-Malays voted for PAS. It's also why despite Bersatu being a Malay only party and Amanah being an Islamic party, non-Malays and non-Muslims were willing to vote for these parties. Because they were voting for Pakatan.

Do these turncoats actually think Harapan supporters who voted for them last time will still vote for them now that they are aligned with UMNO?

All these people who have jumped ship have shown their true colors and the voters will know who they are. The electorate will not be kind to them.

Although Dr M was more than happy to accept frogs the last time around, he's no longer in Harapan though he's with the Opposition. If Harapan wins, he can take all the frogs he wants — though he's be a fool to do so — but it wouldn't affect Harapan which, for the most part, are anti-hopping. Amanah had flirted with the idea of taking in frogs and PKR too. DAP has steadfastly been against it. But now, after all that's happened, I doubt any party in Harapan would accept frogs.

So, these politicians who have thrown their lot with Muhyiddin and gang, if Harapan comes back to power, they will either be out of a job, or if they somehow managed to win, will be in the Opposition bench for good.

What Anwar must not do

Dr M wanted to hold a press conference after the parliamentary sitting. Anwar didn't attend. Nor did any other PKR leaders. No official reason was given by Anwar but the message is clear. He's the Opposition leader and he will play second fiddle to Dr M no more.

They might be together in the Opposition and they might have a common foe in Muhyiddin. But there will be no more kowtowing to Dr M. That was a mistake Anwar and the other Harapan leaders made the first time around, in hope that by kowtowing to Dr M, it would encourage good behavior. It had the opposite effect.

Dr M cultivated Azmin as a rival to Anwar. He neglected the Harapan manifesto, saying it was made during a time when they didn't really think they could win. He allowed Muhyiddin and Azmin and gang to have negotiations with UMNO and did nothing to nip crossover ideas in the bud because he liked to keep his Harapan colleagues on their toes. For from reigning him in, those Pakatan leaders walked on eggshells around Dr M, afraid of upsetting him.

There's a saying, fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Anwar would surely be a fool if he gets fooled twice by Dr M. According to this report, Anwar is supposed to have said he did not want to attend the press conference because he not want to be used. It doesn't look like he's going to be fooled twice.

If Harapan gets back into power again in the near future, there are a few things Anwar must not allow to happen:

a) Accept crossovers from UMNO and PAS.
Once Harapan is in power, there are bound to be some frogs wanting to crossover. None of the Harapan parties should take in any frogs.

b) Let the smallest party dictate things.
When you have a coalition government, small parties sometimes play the subservient role, like what MIC and MCA does. Perhaps they do realize that in fact, they are kingmakers because if they should leave the coalition, it no longer has the majority. But it doesn't have the gumption to act like a kingmaker. But sometimes, far from being subservient, the smaller party, knowing full well that it is the kingmaker, will act like one and given the rest the impression that it will exercise the nuclear option if it doesn't have its way. Then the small party effectively becomes the leader of the coalition as everyone else kowtows to it. This is what Bersatu did and Harapan must never allow it to happen again. Appeasement never works.

c) Allow Dr M to be seen as the leader of the Opposition.
Dr M is outspoken but if he says anything that does not jive with Harapan's ethos or sensibilities, Anwar needs to call him out on it and correct the message. So what if it upsets Dr M? What's he going to do, threaten to pull Bersatu out of Harapan? It's already out of Harapan!

Perikatan is a very weak coalition of rivals. While it may be useful for the Opposition to have Dr M on their side, whacking away at Muhyiddin, they don't need him. In GE15, they can win the majority without Bersatu (or Warisan for that matter). So, there is no need to kowtow to anybody.

Muhyiddin's tiny majority of 2

So, we find that Muhyiddin has 113 MPs out of 222. That means he has a tiny majority of two. If two MPs crossover to the Opposition, his government falls.

He's trying to keep Perikatan together by making a whole bunch of them either ministers or deputy ministers, and the rest: GLC heads. Will that satisfy all 113? All it takes is for two disgruntled MPs who feel they didn't quite get what they deserved and it's game over.

This is not a stable coalition. It's really a marriage of convenience. Sure, Harapan was a marriage of convenience too but that one involved three parties that genuinely got along well (PKR, DAP & Amanah) teaming up with one that didn't quite fit in (Bersatu). With Perikatan, it involves three main parties that are actually rivals to each other.

Even if Perikatan manages to make it to GE15 without imploding it would be close to impossible for them to come up with seat allocations with Bersatu, UMNO and PAS all vying for the same demographic. It would have been hard enough for UMNO and PAS to sort out seat allocations. Now, you have Bersatu in the mix. Impossible!

UMNO will want to contest in most of these seats because it wants to maintain its position as the party with the most seats in the coalition. PAS wants to contest more seats because it doesn't want to play second fiddle to UMNO. Bersatu wants to contest more seats because it wants to be the biggest party in the coalition too. What a powder keg!

If Harapan can get its act together, it should not have to worry too much about Perikatan.

Give Anwar some credit

Some people have been super critical of Anwar and Harapan for willing to work with Dr M to oppose Muhyiddin.

I've been super critical of how Harapan had adopted a policy of appeasement towards Dr M during their time in power. They basically kowtowed to him based on a mixture of fear and hope. They feared that he might torpedo the whole endeavor. They hoped that by letting him have his way, he would keep to his promise of handing over power to Anwar. This was a flawed policy from the start. Far from encouraging good behavior, it emboldened Dr M to run roughshod over Harapan's Manifesto. If anything, it encouraged bad behavior.

So, yes, for that I am super critical. But that's the past. Let's talk about now. Should they team up with Dr M again? That requires a nuanced answer. It's not a straight yes or no.

Right after the Sheraton Move, I said that Harapan needs to chart its own course without relying on the Dr M faction of Bersatu and without Warisan. Don't forget, Warisan's allegiance is with Dr M, it is not with Harapan.

What this means is, going into GE15, Harapan must aim to win enough seats to form the government without external help. To do this means the three parties of PKR, DAP and Amanah have to contest a lot more seats than they did in GE14. They have to contest in all areas where they think they can win, even if it's a seat that Bersatu or Warisan has staked a claim on.

If they win the elections (on their own) and Bersatu and Warisan want to continue to support Harapan, by all means but it will be on Harapan's terms.

Between now and GE15 though, the Opposition (led by Harapan) cannot let the Perikatan government go unchecked. So, Anwar, as the Opposition leader, has to work with other Opposition leaders such as Dr M and Shafie Apdal. It makes sense for the Opposition parties to be united.

Anwar and gang at Harapan are not stupid. They may have made a big strategic mistake the first time around but this time they will not let Bersatu dictate things. Back then, Dr M had the nuclear option of blowing everything up if he didn't get his way. What does he have now? There is no nuclear option anymore thanks to his former right-hand man Muhyiddin and his former blue-eyed boy, Azmin, who already used the nuclear option to jointly blow up the Harapan government. Dr M has no leverage anymore. The harsh reality is that he needs Harapan much, much more than Harapan needs him.

In any battle, the enemy of your enemy is your friend. It doesn't hurt Harapan to have Dr M wage battle against Muhyiddin and gang, provided Harapan never falls into the trap of relying on Dr M. Harapan must work on the basis that they have 92 MPs not 109 (the number they are believed to have if you include Dr M's Bersatu and Warisan). They can work with Dr M and gang to keep Perikatan in check but come GE15, they need to win at least 20 additional seats on their own so they can form a government without relying on parties outside of Harapan. This is not a tall order. It is very doable and something they should work on.