Imponderables

The political situation right now is full of imponderables:

1. Why did Anwar reveal that he had the numbers even before he saw the King?
The only logical conclusion is that he wanted to induce fear (and crossovers) from UMNO MPs who were afraid his claims are true.

2. But isn't he afraid that once he alerts his enemies, they will try to thwart the crossovers?
One logical conclusion is that he believes his support is so solid that it can't be thwarted. But how can he be so sure? Another possibility is that he is playing high stakes poker. He thinks the risk is worth the potential pay-off (that the fear will induce enough new crossovers that it would more than offset any who changed their mind about crossing over).

3. Why did Zahid say that many UMNO MPs support Anwar?
The knee-jerk conclusion is that he had cut a deal with Anwar. The more likely scenario is that this was done to spook Muhyiddin into making concessions.

4. If indeed Zahid and Najib are supportive of Anwar, why?
Assuming that Anwar is savvy enough to know he can't possibly make a deal with these two and hope to survive politically, the only logical conclusion is that they believe that they are somehow better off with Anwar as PM than with Muhyiddin (even if there's no deal in place). In other words, they might view him as the lesser evil for some reason. But it really can't be that it's because he's made a deal with them. That would be political suicide for Anwar.

5. If UMNO MPs are supporting Anwar because of their disappointment with Muhyiddin, what do they possibly hope to get from Anwar that they couldn't get from Muhyiddin?
Again, surely Anwar is savvy enough to know he can't reward UMNO MPs with even better ministerial positions and even cushier GLC jobs than Muhyiddin. So what has he got to offer? Perhaps those UMNO MPs are banking on the fact that once Anwar finally gets to become PM, he will want to hold so dearly to that long-sought-after position that he will do anything to stay in power, including cutting them some sweetheart deals. They might be wrong but that's the only logical explanation for why they would want to support him. It can't be because they support his pro-reform and multiracial agenda.

6. If Anwar is contemplating deals with UMNO MPs, how does he hope to get DAP's support?
This leads us to believe he is somehow able to offer UMNO MPs something they want that DAP is able to swallow. But it's hard to imagine what that could be if not ministerial and GLC positions. Maybe he can get the UMNO MPs to come into this without any explicit deals and rely on their gullibility in thinking they can change him.

7. If Anwar indeed had the numbers, why didn't he give the names to the King so that the King could make a decision on what to do next?
Perhaps he didn't have any exact numbers but only ball park figures based on what each party leader (including from UMNO) told him they could muster. And perhaps he's hoping that if the King takes it upon himself to individually ask each MP what their stance was with regard to Anwar as PM, they would affirm their support for him (for whatever reasons that are important to them).

8. How can Anwar hope to get enough MPs from UMNO when there are so many denials?
Of course there will be many denials at this stage. Who in their right minds will reveal themselves as people who are just about to crossover? Of course they will deny vehemently and claim that they are totally against Anwar and DAP, and so on. Well, they are totally against him until they aren't. Once it's a fait accompli, and he's PM, you can be sure all kinds of people will come forward and say they were secretly supportive of him all the while.

I guess in a matter of weeks, we will find out the answers to many of these imponderables. Anwar will eventually prove to be a fool or a king, so to speak (or perhaps we should change the saying to "a fool or a PM").

What to make of Anwar's bid to become PM

 

There are a few things we know and a few things we don't know relating to Anwar's bid to become PM.

Let's start with what we know:
a) We know that he's pretty much got Harapan behind him.
b) We know that whatever numbers he's got, it doesn't include Dr M's 5 MPs from Pejuang.
c) We know (thanks to Zahid) there are some UMNO MPs supporting Anwar.

What can we don't know:
a) Who are the UMNO MPs that support him?
b) Does he have anyone from GPS and PAS (maybe a few from each
c) Is Warisan behind him? (That's not a given).

The big question on everybody's mind is whether Anwar really has the numbers or is he just bluffing? If he's bluffing, this is really high stakes poker he's playing. If it's proven in the end that he does not have the numbers, his reputation will take a fall that he will never recover from.

That alone makes me think he's not bluffing. He probably does have the numbers, with support from some individual members of UMNO, PAS, GPS and perhaps Warisan. If you add it all up, it could be a comfortable majority, even without Pejuang's 5 MPs.

The problem is all those guys who are supporting him will surely want plum positions or promises of this or that. Anwar has said that no deals have been made. And one would think that he is savvy enough to know that if he make some blatantly corrupt deals, he's finished. So, perhaps they are supporting him simply because they see him as the so-called "lesser evil" compared to Muhyiddin.

But short of any kind of special deals or promises made, how can that be? What could Anwar offer them that Muhyiddin can't or won't, especially if no deal has been made? That's an imponderable.

The other natural question is how can such a government, cobbled up by taking in various individuals from here and there, be a stable one? If these Johnny-Come-Lately supporters can abandon Muhyiddin in search of "greener pastures" what is to say they won't do the same to Anwar when they see a better opportunity?

Of course the King has a crucial role to play here. If he interviews each and everyone of the crossover MPs, he could impress upon them that he really wants to know how serious they are about supporting Anwar as the new PM, and he could tell them he won't take it kindly if they keep switching sides. The King has a lot of moral authority and it would be a brave MP who dares to make a fool out of the King.

Whatever the case, it looks like Muhyiddin's days as PM are numbered. As it is he only has a majority of two MPs in Parliament. That's pretty damn slim. His government could easily crumble any time. And from the sounds of it, there are at least two UMNO MPs not happy with him. So, it's just a matter of time.

The real question is whether Anwar, assuming he can cobble together a majority, is able form a stable and steady government. That is the big unknown.

The government they deserve

 

It is said that people get the government they deserve. Well, the people of Sabah have spoken and they got the government they deserve. Good luck to them!

The great comeuppance is coming

 

Against all odds, Pakatan Harapan wins GE14, allowing Dr M to become Prime Minister once again. Based on the agreement all component parties had made, Dr M would be PM for a good two years, after which he would pass the baton to Anwar. Dr M had a real chance to right all the wrongs of the past and chart a bright new future for Malaysia.

Instead, what did he do? From the get-go, he decided to thwart Anwar's chances of becoming PM. Now, after all that Machiavellian scheming, it looks like the one thing he was dead set on preventing is going to happen.

As for Muhyiddin and Azmin, what they did was nothing short of a betrayal of the rakyat's choice. Any way you slice it, it was a betrayal. The rakyat voted for Harapan, not for Perikatan (which didn't even exist then). They subverted the will of the people and after a matter of months, the tables look like they are turning.

As for all the frogs at every level, who quickly abandoned Harapan to join Perikatan, it looks like they all backed the wrong horse. Will they be so brazen as to ask for permission to jump back to Anwar's side? Possible. Such frogs know no shame. But good luck to them if they think they will be accepted.

Yes, karma works. The great comeuppance is coming.

Pejuang as kingmaker?

 

Dr M has predicted that his new party, Pejuang, will win around 30 seats in the next elections and that it will then be in a position to become kingmaker.

Now, I've said many times in the past that in GE15, Harapan parties must contest in seats previously contested by Bersatu. That should include seats being contested by former Bersatu (turned Pejuang) members.

Why?

Because they are not allied to Harapan. If a party is not allied to you, why should you give way to it? Would Bersatu, UMNO or PAS give way to Pejuang? No way. So why should any Harapan parties?

In fact, I've long argued that Harapan should consider contesting against Warisan too. Why? For the same reason. Warisan is not a (true) ally of Harapan. Its commitment has all along been to Mahathir, not to Harapan.

Don't forget that Shafie rejected the proposal that Anwar become the PM designate for Harapan. There's no indication that his position on that matter has changed. But Harapan's PM designate is Anwar. As such, Warisan cannot be considered an ally. It's not the enemy but it's not an ally that can be depended on.

So, unless something formal can be drawn up whereby Warisan aligns itself formally to Harapan and agrees to accept Harapan's candidate for PM, there's no reason why Harapan should give way to Warisan either.

Harapan has to win enough seats in GE15, on its own steam, to form the government. That means at least 112 seats, on its own. It cannot rely on Warisan's numbers to add to that tally and it most certainly cannot rely on Pejuang, which has already declared publicly that it will want to play the role of kingmaker!