The only solution

 

Dr M's mistake is complacency. At one point, right after the Sheraton Move had happened, he had all of Harapan and all of Bersatu and all of Muafakat supporting him to become PM.

Harapan wanted him to remain as their leader and help them win back the majority in Parliament. Bersatu, aiming to team up with Muafakat (BN + PAS) wanted him to join their side and take control of Parliament.

So what did he do? Feeling indispensable, he spurned both sides and declared he wanted to create a so-called "Unity Government" where everyone was accountable to him and he was accountable to no one.

Guess what. Everyone told him to take a hike. Harapan rejected this and so did Bersatu/Muafakat, who went on to form Perikatan.

***

Anwar's mistake is he likes to play political poker. At one point, he probably did have enough MPs backing him to take majority control of Parliament. At least on paper. Meaning if he counted all of Harapan, and he counted all the UMNO guys who were willing to support him, and he counted some GPS guys who might have been willing to cross over, and if he counted Warisan as eventually joining forces with him, yes he probably did have more than 112. Maybe he had something in the 120 range.

But he wanted more in order to show that he had a strong majority. So what did he do? He announced in advanced what he was going to do. He did that to induce fear and therefore encourage even more crossovers. Those sitting on the fence would think: "Oh, damn... Anwar's going to be PM... I'd better hop over and join his side".

There are two problems with this strategy. Firstly, each party that was supposed to be supporting him was kept in the dark as to who else they were supposed to be partnering with. Then, you have DAP saying no way would they work with UMNO. You also had UMNO saying no way would they work with DAP. So, on paper yes, he had the numbers but in practical terms, he didn't because these two major parties cannot work together.

The other problem is that by openly declaring his gambit for the world to see, it gives him enemies the chance and the time to counter his moves. And counter it, they did.

***

DAP and Amanah's mistake was they decided the best way to deal with a manifesto-reneging Dr M was to appease him. To walk on eggshells and to bend over backwards to make sure he wasn't unhappy, lest he pull the trigger and blow up Harapan.

So, instead of putting their foot down and reminding Dr M that he needs them as much as they need him, they acted as if everything hinged on keeping Dr M happy. But if you give someone like Dr M an inch, he will want a mile. And however compliant they were, it was never enough.

The problem with appeasement of bad behaviour is that it doesn't encourage good behaviour, it encourages even more bad behaviour. The more they kowtowed to Dr M, the more recalcitrant he became.

They knew he was meeting PAS and UMNO behind their back. They knew he was sowing divisions within PKR by grooming Azmin. They knew he was continually pushing back the date to hand over the reigns to Anwar. But what did they do? Nothing.

***

Muhyiddin's mistake was that he somehow believed that partnering up with Bersatu's rivals, PAS and UMNO, to form a new government with a razor-thin majority in Parliament, is a sustainable thing.

Perhaps he saw how Dr M could cow the other Harapan partners despite the fact that Bersatu had very small numbers, and was inspired to try to do the same. But he, of all people, should know UMNO's character. UMNO will never stand for a smaller party taking charge. And so you have all these rumblings within UMNO, constantly threatening to leave him for Anwar.

How unsustainable is the Sheraton Move? Well, Muhyiddin actually tried to resort to calling for an Emergency (which was wisely rejected by the King). That's how unsustainable it is.

***

UMNO's mistake is in thinking if there are snap polls they will win the majority. The reality is that not only is PAS gunning for the same seats as UMNO, so is Bersatu. And then they've also got Harapan to contend with in Malay seats.

Let's be clear. There is no way UMNO, PAS and Bersatu can come to terms on seat allocation. Each party will want the lion's share of seats and the others won't give way. So, there will be a deadlock, resulting in either a three or four-way contest. Or if the top guns miraculously manage to come up with a compromise candidate from one party, the other party leaders will sabotage the campaign.

Either way, it will not be easy for UMNO to win enough seats to control the government. They are dreaming if they think GE15 will be a walk in the park for them. If anything, they will lose even more seats due to the conflicts with Bersatu and PAS for seat allocations and the ensuing problems that result from that.

***

So, what's the best solution? Just wait for GE15 to happen. If Anwar wants to become PM, he has to make sure that PKR + DAP + Amanah win enough seats to form a government without having to make deals with or relying on any other party (which could hold it to ransom).

Dr M has already stated clearly that his Pejuang party aims to become the Kingmaker. Any other party outside of the Harapan tent will also want to be a Kingmaker. So, he needs to come up with a strategy for PKR, DAP and Amanah to close ranks and prepare for a win in GE15 without the help of others.

Forget about a counter-coup

 

UMNO is itching for a general election. Be careful what you wish for!

 

Back when the Sheraton Move first happened and everything started to fall apart for Pakatan Harapan, I said the best option for Harapan moving forward is to prepare for GE15 and aim to win a simple majority without Dr M's faction and without Warisan's support.

The rationale was simple. Dr M wants to be a king-maker. Even with as few as 5 MPs back him, he wants to be the one to dictate things in a Harapan coalition. That won't do.

As for Warisan, it has never supported Harapan per se. It supported Harapan while Dr M was in Harapan. And it's been reported that it was Warisan that rejected the idea of Anwar as PM and Mukhriz as DPM. Warisan is not a steady and reliable ally.

Harapan cannot afford to rely on the support of "kingmakers" who want to be able to have the final say on things. Instead it should prepare to win GE15 without them.

But what about a counter-coup instead? First of all, Anwar doesn't have the numbers. Maybe he did at one time but right now, it doesn't seem like he does anymore.

Besides, in order to have the numbers it seems Anwar would need UMNO and DAP to be on the same team and that's impossible. UMNO has said it won't work with DAP, and DAP has said it won't work with UMNO.

So, just forget about the counter-coup and focuse on GE15!

Muhyiddin at his weakest

 

There are many imponderables when you think about the political situation in this country. One big imponderable is what on earth made Muhyiddin think it was a good idea to pull Bersatu out of Pakatan Harapan and team up with its rival UMNO instead? How on earth did he think this could possibly be a stable situation? What could have possibly convinced him that the situation could be sustainable?

This marriage of convenience had the word "Implosion" all over it. But he went ahead anyway. And this is the mess he got himself into. His situation is so precarious that he actually resorted to trying to get the King to declare a state of Emergency.

When news first got out about the Cabinet approving this desperado move, everyone was concerned because the common understanding is that the King has to act on the advice of the PM. Several articles published by online media quoted constitutional lawyers affirming that the King should act on the advice of the PM. Most did not regard his discretion to include rejecting that advice.

But reject his advice, the King did.

We don't know what the conference of rulers talked about but they probably realized that not only would an Emergency declaration be highly unpopular because of how unnecessary it would be, it would also destroy our economy. And not to mention it was a blatant political power play that had little to do with curtailing the virus, and more to do with curtailing Anwar.

With the advice of the other rulers, the King said no.

Can Muhyiddin challenge that decision in court? He could. Would he win? Very possible, if you believe what the constitutional lawyers say. But he's not going to do it. He's already so weakened by this situation, the last thing he needs now is a Battle Royale with the royalty.

Muhyiddin is in bad shape. His only consolation is that the Opposition hasn't exactly got its act together either. Anwar seems to be acting like a lone wolf, trying to cobble together a majority in Parliament. From what's been published, it seems like he's been reaching out to UMNO MPs to get the numbers. But if he gets a bunch of UMNO guys to join him, DAP will leave. He can't assume DAP will stick with him no matter what.

So, while Muhyiddin might have lost his majority, it's not obvious that Anwar has the majority either. The solution might have to be snap polls. Nobody really wants that but sometimes a bad option is the only option.

Whatever the case, one thing is clear: Muhyiddin's back door gambit has come back to haunt him.

Imponderables

The political situation right now is full of imponderables:

1. Why did Anwar reveal that he had the numbers even before he saw the King?
The only logical conclusion is that he wanted to induce fear (and crossovers) from UMNO MPs who were afraid his claims are true.

2. But isn't he afraid that once he alerts his enemies, they will try to thwart the crossovers?
One logical conclusion is that he believes his support is so solid that it can't be thwarted. But how can he be so sure? Another possibility is that he is playing high stakes poker. He thinks the risk is worth the potential pay-off (that the fear will induce enough new crossovers that it would more than offset any who changed their mind about crossing over).

3. Why did Zahid say that many UMNO MPs support Anwar?
The knee-jerk conclusion is that he had cut a deal with Anwar. The more likely scenario is that this was done to spook Muhyiddin into making concessions.

4. If indeed Zahid and Najib are supportive of Anwar, why?
Assuming that Anwar is savvy enough to know he can't possibly make a deal with these two and hope to survive politically, the only logical conclusion is that they believe that they are somehow better off with Anwar as PM than with Muhyiddin (even if there's no deal in place). In other words, they might view him as the lesser evil for some reason. But it really can't be that it's because he's made a deal with them. That would be political suicide for Anwar.

5. If UMNO MPs are supporting Anwar because of their disappointment with Muhyiddin, what do they possibly hope to get from Anwar that they couldn't get from Muhyiddin?
Again, surely Anwar is savvy enough to know he can't reward UMNO MPs with even better ministerial positions and even cushier GLC jobs than Muhyiddin. So what has he got to offer? Perhaps those UMNO MPs are banking on the fact that once Anwar finally gets to become PM, he will want to hold so dearly to that long-sought-after position that he will do anything to stay in power, including cutting them some sweetheart deals. They might be wrong but that's the only logical explanation for why they would want to support him. It can't be because they support his pro-reform and multiracial agenda.

6. If Anwar is contemplating deals with UMNO MPs, how does he hope to get DAP's support?
This leads us to believe he is somehow able to offer UMNO MPs something they want that DAP is able to swallow. But it's hard to imagine what that could be if not ministerial and GLC positions. Maybe he can get the UMNO MPs to come into this without any explicit deals and rely on their gullibility in thinking they can change him.

7. If Anwar indeed had the numbers, why didn't he give the names to the King so that the King could make a decision on what to do next?
Perhaps he didn't have any exact numbers but only ball park figures based on what each party leader (including from UMNO) told him they could muster. And perhaps he's hoping that if the King takes it upon himself to individually ask each MP what their stance was with regard to Anwar as PM, they would affirm their support for him (for whatever reasons that are important to them).

8. How can Anwar hope to get enough MPs from UMNO when there are so many denials?
Of course there will be many denials at this stage. Who in their right minds will reveal themselves as people who are just about to crossover? Of course they will deny vehemently and claim that they are totally against Anwar and DAP, and so on. Well, they are totally against him until they aren't. Once it's a fait accompli, and he's PM, you can be sure all kinds of people will come forward and say they were secretly supportive of him all the while.

I guess in a matter of weeks, we will find out the answers to many of these imponderables. Anwar will eventually prove to be a fool or a king, so to speak (or perhaps we should change the saying to "a fool or a PM").

What to make of Anwar's bid to become PM

 

There are a few things we know and a few things we don't know relating to Anwar's bid to become PM.

Let's start with what we know:
a) We know that he's pretty much got Harapan behind him.
b) We know that whatever numbers he's got, it doesn't include Dr M's 5 MPs from Pejuang.
c) We know (thanks to Zahid) there are some UMNO MPs supporting Anwar.

What can we don't know:
a) Who are the UMNO MPs that support him?
b) Does he have anyone from GPS and PAS (maybe a few from each
c) Is Warisan behind him? (That's not a given).

The big question on everybody's mind is whether Anwar really has the numbers or is he just bluffing? If he's bluffing, this is really high stakes poker he's playing. If it's proven in the end that he does not have the numbers, his reputation will take a fall that he will never recover from.

That alone makes me think he's not bluffing. He probably does have the numbers, with support from some individual members of UMNO, PAS, GPS and perhaps Warisan. If you add it all up, it could be a comfortable majority, even without Pejuang's 5 MPs.

The problem is all those guys who are supporting him will surely want plum positions or promises of this or that. Anwar has said that no deals have been made. And one would think that he is savvy enough to know that if he make some blatantly corrupt deals, he's finished. So, perhaps they are supporting him simply because they see him as the so-called "lesser evil" compared to Muhyiddin.

But short of any kind of special deals or promises made, how can that be? What could Anwar offer them that Muhyiddin can't or won't, especially if no deal has been made? That's an imponderable.

The other natural question is how can such a government, cobbled up by taking in various individuals from here and there, be a stable one? If these Johnny-Come-Lately supporters can abandon Muhyiddin in search of "greener pastures" what is to say they won't do the same to Anwar when they see a better opportunity?

Of course the King has a crucial role to play here. If he interviews each and everyone of the crossover MPs, he could impress upon them that he really wants to know how serious they are about supporting Anwar as the new PM, and he could tell them he won't take it kindly if they keep switching sides. The King has a lot of moral authority and it would be a brave MP who dares to make a fool out of the King.

Whatever the case, it looks like Muhyiddin's days as PM are numbered. As it is he only has a majority of two MPs in Parliament. That's pretty damn slim. His government could easily crumble any time. And from the sounds of it, there are at least two UMNO MPs not happy with him. So, it's just a matter of time.

The real question is whether Anwar, assuming he can cobble together a majority, is able form a stable and steady government. That is the big unknown.

The government they deserve

 

It is said that people get the government they deserve. Well, the people of Sabah have spoken and they got the government they deserve. Good luck to them!

The great comeuppance is coming

 

Against all odds, Pakatan Harapan wins GE14, allowing Dr M to become Prime Minister once again. Based on the agreement all component parties had made, Dr M would be PM for a good two years, after which he would pass the baton to Anwar. Dr M had a real chance to right all the wrongs of the past and chart a bright new future for Malaysia.

Instead, what did he do? From the get-go, he decided to thwart Anwar's chances of becoming PM. Now, after all that Machiavellian scheming, it looks like the one thing he was dead set on preventing is going to happen.

As for Muhyiddin and Azmin, what they did was nothing short of a betrayal of the rakyat's choice. Any way you slice it, it was a betrayal. The rakyat voted for Harapan, not for Perikatan (which didn't even exist then). They subverted the will of the people and after a matter of months, the tables look like they are turning.

As for all the frogs at every level, who quickly abandoned Harapan to join Perikatan, it looks like they all backed the wrong horse. Will they be so brazen as to ask for permission to jump back to Anwar's side? Possible. Such frogs know no shame. But good luck to them if they think they will be accepted.

Yes, karma works. The great comeuppance is coming.

Pejuang as kingmaker?

 

Dr M has predicted that his new party, Pejuang, will win around 30 seats in the next elections and that it will then be in a position to become kingmaker.

Now, I've said many times in the past that in GE15, Harapan parties must contest in seats previously contested by Bersatu. That should include seats being contested by former Bersatu (turned Pejuang) members.

Why?

Because they are not allied to Harapan. If a party is not allied to you, why should you give way to it? Would Bersatu, UMNO or PAS give way to Pejuang? No way. So why should any Harapan parties?

In fact, I've long argued that Harapan should consider contesting against Warisan too. Why? For the same reason. Warisan is not a (true) ally of Harapan. Its commitment has all along been to Mahathir, not to Harapan.

Don't forget that Shafie rejected the proposal that Anwar become the PM designate for Harapan. There's no indication that his position on that matter has changed. But Harapan's PM designate is Anwar. As such, Warisan cannot be considered an ally. It's not the enemy but it's not an ally that can be depended on.

So, unless something formal can be drawn up whereby Warisan aligns itself formally to Harapan and agrees to accept Harapan's candidate for PM, there's no reason why Harapan should give way to Warisan either.

Harapan has to win enough seats in GE15, on its own steam, to form the government. That means at least 112 seats, on its own. It cannot rely on Warisan's numbers to add to that tally and it most certainly cannot rely on Pejuang, which has already declared publicly that it will want to play the role of kingmaker!

People don't like a backdoor government

 

A recent article in The Star asked why the Chinese political ground seems to be so cold towards Muhyiddin. I believe it's not just the Chinese but anyone who had voted for Harapan in the last elections would be cold towards him and the Perikatan government.

Why?

For the simple reason that a backdoor government subverts the will of the electorate. No one is arguing that the way Perikatan came to power is illegal. But just because something is legal doesn't mean it's ethical.

The people voted for Harapan, which consisted of PKR, DAP, Amanah and Bersatu. Perikatan is basically UMNO, PAS and Bersatu (yes, MIC and MCA are in there but they are pretty inconsequential in the grand scheme of things). Perikatan is clearly not what the people voted for.

UMNO is itching for a snap election. PAS seems keen too. Bersatu less so, for obvious reasons. It knows it's likely to be wiped out if snap polls were to be held soon. First of all, UMNO has already said it's not going to give way to Bersatu, so there are extremely few seats it can contest in. And of those, only a small handful might win. Muhyiddin might win but who else? Azmin? Don't be too sure of that. Or of the others.

So, Bersatu will go from being a small party to being a mosquito party if snap polls were held. But would UMNO do any better than it did in GE14? There's no compelling reason why the results would be better for it this time around.

In order for it to do better, it has to win seats that it had lost to Harapan the last time around. Although people were rightly disappointed that Harapan did not bring about the reforms it had promised, would those very same people turn to UMNO for such reforms?

As for PAS, there is also no compelling argument for why it should do any better. In fact, it is likely to do worse. You must remember, in GE14, when people voted for PAS, they were voting for the Opposition (opposition to BN, in general, and UMNO, in particular). Those people obviously did not like the BN government. Now that PAS is in cahoots with UMNO, will those very same people still vote for PAS? Some might. But some will not. Those who voted for PAS because they wanted to kick BN and UMNO out of power are not going to vote for PAS anymore.

It is said that people have short memories and this may be true but the Sheraton Move is not something the electorate will forget very easily. Subverting the will of the voting public is not something people will easily forget. And they will remember that going into the polls.

Not one seat for Bersatu

 

 

 

The Umno supreme council has decided that BN will contest in seats that it had lost due to defections since the last general election.

“This is the supreme council’s - not the president’s – decision to retake (the seats). Thus, we will not give even one seat to Bersatu. That much is certain.

“If Bersatu still wants (to contest in the next general election), then they can contest in other seats.

“It is up to them to contest in Bersatu Blackout’s seats or wherever else, they can go contest in that place,” said supreme council member Zahidi Zainul Abidin.

Enough said.

Azmin's true face

Umno supreme council member Puad Zarkashi doesn't mince his words:

"After joining Bersatu, it will not be easy for Azmin and his group to win solid support of the Chinese as they had done in the 13th and 14th general elections.

"By joining Bersatu, Azmin will join Muafakat Nasional (too). There is a proverb that says 'masuk kandang kambing mengembik, masuk kandang kerbau menguak' (when you enter a goat's pen, bleat, when you enter a cow's pen, moo)," he said.

Puad was apparently referring to the Malay-centric thrust of Muafakat Nasional's political position, which would ostensibly alienate non-Malay voters in Azmin's Gombak constituency.

"The people will see the true face of Azmin. Only the inspector-general of police will say Azmin's face is still blurred," he jibed.

***

Enough said.

Will Bersatu in Muafakat resolve seat allocation issue?

 

So, Bersatu looks set to join Muafakat. Will this will resolve the seat allocation issue?, a friend asked me. The answer is of course not!

Have a look at this: Gombak Umno indicates it won't give Azmin free pass to defend his seat.

This is but a microcosm of what will happen throughout the country. Enough said.

Harapan has the upper hand in polls

So, we're gonna see polls in Sabah within 60 days. This will be very interesting. Sabah politics (and indeed, East Malaysian politics) is a bit different from Peninsula politics. The dynamics are a little bit different and over there, warlords seem to have a disproportionate influence over the electorate. Nevertheless, one dynamic at play is exactly the same as in the Peninsula: We are looking at a backdoor government attempt.

In the Peninsula, the perpetrators managed to pull it off, thanks in no small part to Dr M abruptly resigning in a miscalculated attempt to consolidate his power. Perhaps learning from Dr M's mistake, Shafie did the right thing and asked for a dissolution rather than simply allowing his opponents to take over by way of statutory declarations or some other means of proving they have the numbers.

The constitution allows him to do this and he did it. Now, it is up to the voters to decide their own future. Do they want to go with the Harapan-friendly side or the Perikatan-friendly side?

One thing is for sure though, the voters know who the frogs are. These are the people who betrayed the electorate's choice in GE14. I don't think voters like that and I think many, if not most, of the frogs will be punished by the electorate.

The other problem, the Perikatan-friendly side has is that Bersatu and UMNO are already at loggerheads about seat allocation. I've said many times, this is a problem that Perikatan component parties will struggle with. Over at the Peninsula side, this problem will be even more challenging with PAS in the mix. All three core parties — Bersatu, UMNO, PAS — are going after the same demographic. None will give an inch. All will want to claim as many seats as possible.

So, in a nutshell, there are two core problems Perikatan faces:
a) Voters will know who the frogs are and they will punish them
b) The Perikatan side won't be able to resolve the seat allocation problem

Haparan has its own set of problems but it doesn't have those two issues above. That fact alone gives it an upper hand against Perikatan in GE15.

Harapan should just prepare for GE15

With each passing day, it's becoming painfully obvious that the best option for Harapan is to prepare itself for GE15. Forget about doing a counter-coup against the backdoor government of Perikatan.

I know it's very tempting to want to do a counter-coup when Perikatan is just hanging by a tread. But where are you going to get the numbers from? Answer: Frogs.

If they can jump into your camp for now, they can jump into another camp when they get a better offer. Forget about dealing with frogs. Focus on GE15.

If nothing else, what Harapan has got going for itself is that it's more or less sorted out its seat allocations. DAP, PKR and Amanah each have got their seats carved out, as per GE14.

What different is that among themselves, they need to decide who will contest in Bersatu and Warisan seats.

Yes, they should contest wherever Bersatu and Warisan contests. The reason for contesting against Bersatu is obvious, it's now an opponent not an ally. While Dr M's faction, comprising 6 MPs might not be an opponent, they aren't committed allies either. The same can be said about Warisan, which is why Harapan would be fools not to contest in those seats and try to win them for itself.

If they give way to Bersatu and Warisan, who go on to win those seats, we will be back to status quo, with Shafie and Dr M using their leverage to block Anwar from becoming PM. Might as well contest against these parties, win a few seats and try to get enough to form a majority without the help of external parties.

This really is what Harapan should be focusing on instead of daydreaming about launching a counter-coup. Let Perikatan implode. Even if Perikatan manages to stay together until GE15, they won't be able to come to an agreement on seat allocations.

The reason for this has been well articulated in many places but in a nutshell, it is this: Bersatu, UMNO and PAS are all targeting the same demographic. None will want to budge an inch on seats that they consider theirs. And there are a lot of overlapping seats.

More spin from Dr M

Dr M says it was Lim Guan Eng who mooted that Shafie become PM. That may very well be true but it was clearly a suggestion. In fact, both DAP and Amanah said immediately after the meeting that this was a matter that needed to be discussed by Harapan (of which Dr M is not a member, nor is Shafie).

So, Harapan had a meeting and decided they would stick with Anwar instead. That's Harapan's prerogative. And it's the right move, by the way. Why have a coalition only to propose someone outside the coalition as your PM candidate? Doesn't make sense.

He goes on to say that though there were several MPs who were willing to join the opposition, they would not do so if Anwar was the PM candidate.

Well, Dr M has a problem too. There are 38 MPs (from PKR) who don't want him or Shafie to be PM. So how is he going to resolve that?

Lastly, he says: “When I stepped down (in February) and everyone was asked to state who they wanted, I should have been given full support by Harapan because they told me they supported me fully."

Yes, Harapan supported him fully as PM, but for Harapan, not as PM of a unity government whereby he could pick and choose whomever he wanted without consultation with others from Harapan. And he conveniently doesn't mention that when Harapan asked him to attend a meeting to discuss how to get back control of the government, he refused. That's when they decided, it had to be Anwar. 

A microcosm of what will happen across the country

Gombak Umno, PAS won't work with Azmin:

1. Not surprising
2. Is a reflection of what will happen in other constituencies
3. UMNO, PAS and Bersatu will not be able to resolve seat allocations. The demographics they are each going after are almost the same.

Dr M's spin on reasons for resignation rings hollow

Dr M claims that the reason he resigned is that the Harapan government had collapsed when Muhyiddin pulled Bersatu out of the coalition. This is what he said:

Strictly speaking, when Bersatu left Harapan, the coalition ceased to be the government. This meant that all members of the cabinet lost their ministerial positions. This included me. I had lost my position as prime minister. Resigning was only a formality.

But the reality is that there was no immediate collapse because Muhyiddin didn't clearly have a majority either. In fact, the King said he told Dr M not to resign but he insisted on doing so. Why?

Was it because he was a "gentleman" and knowing he had lost control of the majority, he decided to resign? Or could it be for another reason? Might that reason be that he wanted to be free from the shackles of Harapan and be able to form a so-called "unity government" where he could pick and choose whichever MP he wanted from either side without consulting any parties. In other words, a government where everyone is beholden to him while he is accountable to no one.

What made him think he could pull off such a ridiculous scheme? Well, at that time Bersatu, PAS and UMNO were saying they wanted him as PM. Meanwhile Harapan parties were also saying they wanted him as PM. So theoretically he had a super-majority in Parliament where both the ruling coalition and the opposition wanted him as PM.

He probably figured, if UMNO and gang were to reject him, he'd still have Harapan to fall back on. And if Harapan were to reject him, he'd still have UMNO and gang supporting him. With so much support all around, he became over-confident. So imagine his shock when both sides decided to reject his unity government pipe dream.

It's interesting that Najib himself has responded to Dr M's spin on his resignation, pointing out: "He even ignored Harapan's request to have a meeting a day after he resigned to discuss how they could save the Harapan government."

This is what led Harapan to then change its PM candidate to Anwar. Because Dr M had abandoned them. It was only later that the were able to come together again to try to find common ground. Strangely, both DAP and Amanah were keen on having Dr M as Harapan's PM candidate once more. But that was stymied (rightly so) by PKR.

Eventually, DAP and Amanah came around to supporting Anwar again. And that's where we are at right now. I don't think it's a bad situation for Harapan. Together they have 91 MPs. What does Dr M have? A total of 6 MPs. If you lump Warisan in there, he has 15 MPs.

It's very clear who has the upper hand here, even if Dr M and Shafie refuse to recognize the reality of the situation. They are simply in no position to make any demands.

No, Dr M did not topple BN, Harapan did

It's interesting how Dr M's acolytes keep pushing the canard that it was Dr M that toppled the BN government.

Harapan and its allies defeated BN.

DAP won 42 seats
PKR won 47 seats
Amanah won 11 seats

And how many did Bersatu win? A grand total of 13. Warisan won 8. You add those two together and you get 21. So, Dr M's faction won 21 seats. Are you telling me 21 seats defeated BN? No, 21 seats combined with Harapan's 100 seats was able to topple BN.

If Dr M and his cohorts' argument is that without the 21, Harapan couldn't have formed the government, they are right.

But it can certainly be said that without Harapan's 100, Dr M's team wouldn't have been able to form the government either.

I'm not great at math but it doesn't take a mathematical genius to know that 100 is a much higher number than 21. As such, it would be fair to say that Harapan contributed more to the victory than Dr M and Warisan.

Today, after all the defections, Harapan is left with 91 seats. And what is Dr M's faction left with? They've got 6 from Bersatu and 9 from Warisan = 15.

Again, my math ain't too good but I'm pretty confident 91 is a whole lot more than 15. Yet, it's this gang of 15 who wants to tell the gang of 91 what to do. It'd be funny if it wasn't so tragic.

Wan Saiful says Dr M adamant on denying Anwar premiership

This is what Wan Saiful Wan Jan says:

"In various closed-door discussions and meetings after GE14 attended by this author, Mahathir was both adamant and consistent that he did not want to see Anwar succeed him as prime minister despite his public statements (to the contrary). 

"To Mahathir, Anwar is someone who would neither champion the Malays nor defend the privileges accorded to ethnic Malays by the Federal Constitution.

"Mahathir also believed that Anwar's plans could be thwarted if the three major Malay parties, Bersatu, Umno and PAS, were brought together so that a new Malay-led government could be formed - doing away with the Chinese-dominated DAP and the multiracial PKR in Pakatan Harapan in the process."

***

Now, at the time of writing, we haven't seen any rebuttal from Dr M himself or any of his supporters. I suspect we will see that soon enough. They are likely to say it's a lie or spin it somehow as being taken out of context etc.

In the absence of any audio recordings of such conversations, we won't be able to know for sure whether what Wan Saiful says is true or not. But we can ask ourselves the following:

a) Does this sound like something Dr M would do?
b) Is it in line with his character to be that way?
c) Does it strike you as true?

What's Dr M's game plan?

Dr M doesn't accept Harapan's choice of PM, which is Anwar, and he plans to continue with his efforts to make his choice, Shafie, the PM should Perikatan get toppled.

Now, if you do the math, you will see that he basically has 14 people in his block (5 formerly from Bersatu and 9 from Warisan). That's all he's got: 14.

So, on what basis does he think he can get at least 112 MPs on his side? There is only one possibility I can think of, which is the following sequence of assumptions:

He can get GPS to switch sides. That gives him another 18. So, his total would add up to 14 + 18 = 32.

Even if he believes he can get DAP and Amanah to support his coalition, that would be only another 42 + 11 = 53. That gives him a grand total of 32 + 53 = 85. Still far short of the 112 he needs to control Parliament.

PKR has 38. If you add that into the mix, you will have 123, a comfortable majority.

So, no matter what, he needs PKR to be on board. How does he hope to do so? Probably not by appealing directly to PKR. He and Anwar are at loggerheads. No, he is probably hoping that should he manage to get GPS on board, both DAP and Amanah would pressure PKR to hop on board.

That must be his calculation. There is no other configuration I can think of that would work.

PAS also has 18 MPs, but he can't bring PAS into the coalition, Amanah and DAP would object. He can't bring UMNO into the equation. Again, Amanah and DAP would object.

The only bloc that he could possibly bring in is GPS, with its 18 MPs, and even then, he would still need PKR for its 38 MPs.

So, he must be banking on peer pressure from Amanah and DAP for PKR to give in and agree to join his coalition, on his terms.

Politics is the art of the impossible but this is soooooo not gonna happen.

He's over-estimating Amanah and DAP's ability to sway PKR, and underestimating PKR's resolves not to fooled by him again. "Once bitten, twice shy," as they say.

Dr M may have a game plan but it's one that he's bound to lose.