Muhyiddin & Azmin's poor timing

I'm not one of those who are critical of the current government for the way it is handling the Covid-19 situation. Sure, the implementation of the lock-down was rushed and not well thought out. But as I had mentioned in my previous post, time is not exactly on our side. They had to act and they had to act fast. Improvements and modifications to the measures would have to be made as we go along.

But speaking of timing, Muhyiddin and Azmin couldn't have chosen a worse time to do their Sheraton Move. The country -- and the world, for that matter -- is almost certain to go into a recession due to the Covid-19 crisis which doesn't look like it will abate anytime soon.

Even if they do everything right from now on, the economy is going to go into a tailspin. The retail and service sector has pretty much ground to a halt and the outlook for the rest of the year (even after the lockdown is lifted) isn't rosey. Lots of people are going to lose their jobs. Lots of small businesses will close down.

No doubt, this isn't just a Malaysian phenomenon. It's happening all over the world. But as Bill Clinton's campaign once famously said: "It's the economy, stupid." If people are in dire straits come GE15, they will blame the government or at least want to boot them out in favor of an alternative that gives them hope for a better life.

They chose the timing to do their Sheraton Move. They will bear the consequences of it. Karma may not be instant but there's no escaping it.

The lock-down is a necessary, good move

I've been critical of the Sheraton Move that resulted in the backdoor government being set up by Muhyiddin and Azmin but since March 14, I've not written any new blog postings about this topic. I was too caught up with the Covid-19 crisis which seemed to be worsening by the day.

I've seen some criticism online about how this lock-down was not well thought out and so on. While I'm critical about how this Perikatan government was formed (legal but not ethical), I am not critical of their decision to quickly implement this lock-down.

I've watched videos of several experts saying that speed is crucial. You can't wait until everything is perfect to take action. The virus is spreading like crazy. You have to do something and do it fast. You can improve the implementation along the way. And that is being done.

Initially there was a lot of confusion about what is considered essential and what is non-essential. There have also been some U-turns about whether university students should go home or stay put; about whether inter-state travel requires a police permit or not, or whether it's even allowed for non-essential situations. All this is understandable when you want to quickly implement something fast. So, I am not critical of it.

The natural question on everybody's mind is whether this lock-down actually end on March 31. Muhyiddin has gone on TV to say that if necessary it will be extended. I suspect that if the situation pretty much stays the same, with over 100 new cases per day, it has to be extended. If the situation worsens -- even more new cases and more deaths -- then not only will it have to be extended, it probably has to be tightened up further. Perhaps like in Italy.

Businesses are suffering. Lots of people will lose their jobs. The economy will most likely go into a recession. But what's the alternative? No lock-down? That would result in something even worse. Imagine if we become like Italy or Spain.

This is from yesterday:

Italy on Wednesday reported 475 more deaths from the coronavirus, a new record high that brings the total number of victims in the country to 2,978.

Latest figures provided by the Italian Civil Protection Department show that COVID-19 cases in the country have now reached 28,710, a 10% rise from Tuesday.

The Italian government is mulling over whether to further strengthen its already strict containment measures, which have brought the country to a near-total lockdown.

And this too:

A locked-down Spain continued to edge closer to Iran as health officials announced Wednesday more than 2,500 coronavirus cases were recorded overnight, bringing up the tally well past 13,000.

Health officials reported there were 2,538 additional COVID-19 cases across Spain since Tuesday, bringing the rally to at least 13,716. There have been at least 558 deaths nationwide.

It's all pretty grim news. Let's just hope this first lock-down works and there is a decline in new cases because if it gets worse, we are looking at a longer and more severe lock-down. And it would be necessary.