How it could have been - Najib

After Pak Lah's disastrous first (and only) term as PM, Najib ousted him and took over as president of UMNO and PM of the country in 2009. Expectations of Najib were extremely low. He didn't have the clean reputation that Pak Lah had. He was also seen as an indecisive person, having sat on the fence during much of the UMNO civil war in 1987 that pit Dr M against Tengku Razaleigh -- only to place his bet on Dr M in the last moment.

With public expectations so low it was a golden opportunity for him to defy expectations and become a bold and decisive PM, one who would clean up and reform the old system he had inherited. By that time, he was already a wealthy man (he has subsequently claimed it was through inheritance... ahem). So, he didn't have to worry about money. He could have focused all his energies on improving the country and in the process, achieve what Pak Lah couldn't.

He was Western educated, spoke perfect English, and he knew exactly what a modern democracy should be. He could have put in place all the reforms that Pak Lah failed to do and therefore earn the trust, admiration and respect of the general public, which had so little expectations of him.

Even if he had achieved just half, or even a quarter, of the things that should have been done, it would have already exceeded everyone's expectations of him and he would have been a popular leader. But he did the exact opposite of what people wanted him to do.

Instead of clamping down on corruption, he gave us 1MDB. Instead of introducing more freedoms, people were being arrested for things they wrote on Facebook by an IGP who issued arrest orders via Twitter. People were being charged for dropping balloons and drawing cartoons. If that was not enough, he gave himself new emergency powers and gave us the Fake News Act. He and his wife went on international shopping sprees and presented us with the GST. It was all a big joke but it wasn't funny at all.

Yet despite all that, Najib thought until the very end that he was going to win GE14, and win big. Maybe even get back the 2/3rds majority for BN. Then he could proceed to decimate the opposition and finally silence all the pesky queries about 1MDB.

But this was not to be. He underestimated the intelligence of the people. He thought Malaysians were still stuck in the 1980s mindset. He thought Malaysians would tolerate and accept all kinds of government shenanigans as long as we weren't Somalia. As long as people weren't dying in the streets or rotting in the gutter, they won't rock the boat. They will be apathetic, play it safe and vote in BN -- just like they have been doing for the past six decades before. He thought wrong.

How it could have been - Pak Lah

When Pak Lah took over as PM in 2003, the nation breathed a collective sigh of relief. Enough of the Mahathir years! The people gave the man known as Mr Nice Guy and Mr Clean a massive electoral victory in 2004 where BN won an unprecedented 198 out of 220 seats in Parliament.

With a mandate like that and the collective goodwill of the people behind him, the sky was the limit. Granted, he wasn't the most dynamic politician. In fact, he was rather bland and laid back. But he has a smart son-in-law in the form of KJ, educated in Oxford no less, who could advise him. There was so much to look forward to, so much to be achieved.

Imagine if KJ had told him the following:

Pak Lah, you have a mandate like no one else. You have an excellent reputation of being Mr Clean. The public loves you. They are tired of the crony capitalism, media control and lack of civil liberties associated with the Mahathir years. You can change all that.

First thing you have to do is to rid the Cabinet of anyone who is not pro-reform. If they are likely to opposed your agenda for change, sack them and replace them with someone more progressive, open and intelligent. Sure, this would upset some UMNO warlords but who cares! Because of you BN now has 90% control of Parliament. Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!

All those good things that the opposition are shouting about -- let's co-opt those ideas and suck the oxygen out of their camp. Let's really really clamp down on corruption, let's introduce the Freedom of Information Act, let's get rid of repressive laws like the ISA, Sedition Act, Universities and University Colleges Act, Printing Presses and Publications Act, etc so that Malaysia can be a true democracy. Let's do all that in your first term alone.

If you do all that, Pak Lah, in one single term alone, you would have superseded Dr M's 22 years in office. Yes, he modernized Malaysia but at what cost? He ruled with an iron fist. Crony capitalism is rampant. There's no press freedom. You can change all that and become the greatest PM Malaysia has ever had.

If Pak Lah had done all that, the opposition would have died a natural death and Pak Lah would still be PM today.

But that was not to be. KJ was too busy shoring up his own power base to push through all these reforms. He figured with an overwhelming electoral victory like that, Pak Lah could coast through his first term and still be a popular prime minister. But he was wrong. Expectations were high and Pak Lah failed to fulfill any of the things society had expected of him. Coasting cost him the traditional 2/3rds majority in parliament that BN has always counted on (which allowed it to change the Constitution at will). It also cost him four states which fell to the opposition. And eventually it cost him the presidency of UMNO and his PM-ship.

The Mahathir-Anwar tag team is what M'sia needs

Dr M will be in charge for roughly two years during which time, he will push through aggressive prosecution of crimes, especially in regard to 1MDB, and reforms of key institutions. Shortly after winning the elections Dr M said heads will roll, and roll they have. With new people in place, the next step is to actually reform those institutions. There is no question that this will happen. The team around him -- which is made up of leaders from the various component parties of Pakatan Harapan -- will make sure that it does.

For sure, some of his old tendencies will crop up. Note how he wants to have a new Malaysian car. Note also how Lim Guan Eng quickly told him that public funds can't be used for this. The old Dr M would have bulldozed through his vision. Dr M 2.0 will be more circumspect.

So he is absolutely the right man for the job right now. And given his advanced age (93 this year) and the fact that there is an expectation that he won't stay on the job for more than two years, there is a great sense of urgency in what he's doing. He has two years to get things done and he will make every moment count.

Fully motivated, surrounded by a competent team, and enjoying the goodwill of the general public, there is every reason to believe a lot will be achieved in these two years. Hopefully, by the end of that period, we can put the 1MDB scandal behind us and key institutions would have been reformed.

Dr M can then truly retire knowing full well that he has completely revamped his legacy. Dr M 1.0 was a very divisive figure. Admired by some, despised by others. In his first term, he did a lot of good for the country but he also did a lot of bad. In fact, it can persuasively be argued that there was too much bad mixed in with the good, and that it was the system that he had architectured that allowed Najib to do what he did.

Dr M 2.0 is fixing that. Maybe not to the degree that civil society would like to see but that's where Anwar comes in. The era of Anwar will see even more reforms to open up society so that we can enjoy more freedoms because he is more of a reformer than Dr M is. And he is exactly what we will need when Dr M's time is over.

Dr M will fix the damage that has been done. Anwar will further improve the system. If you wake up every morning feeling today is going to be a better day than yesterday, you are not alone. We Malaysians have a very bright future ahead of us.

How will the Malay vote go in GE15?

Merdeka Center has found that while 95% and 70-75% of Indians voted for Pakatan, for the Malays the vote was split three ways. BN got 35-40%; PAS got 30-33%; Pakatan got 25-30%.

The natural question is how will the Malay vote be like in GE15? With PAS and BN now in the opposition does that mean that 65-73% of the vote will go to the opposition? Probably not.

Firstly, if BN/UMNO and PAS cooperate, that would alienate some voters in each camp. Some UMNO people will refuse to vote for PAS, while some PAS people would never vote for UMNO. Such voters, who are disgusted with the idea of UMNO and PAS cooperating will either not vote or they will vote for Pakatan.

Secondly, if political analyst Wong Chin Huat is correct, about 20% of Malays don't vote along party lines but rather, they support the government of the day. So if Pakatan got 25-30% and you add another 20% who in GE14 did not vote for Pakatan but now would (given that it is now the government of the day), you would have between 45-50% voting for Pakatan.

It's hard to say how many disillusioned UMNO/PAS supporters there would be but assuming that number is just 10%,  Pakatan would then enjoy a 55-60% support among the Malays.

Not easy for The Malaysian Insight to charge for content

Malaysiakini is an anomaly. It is probably the only news organization in Malaysia that can charge for content.

Of course other media outlets -- mainstream and alternative -- would like to do so as well. But they can't because the public is too spoiled on free content for so long now. It's impossible for them to put up a paywall.

Well, The Malaysian Insight is going to give it a shot. Starting July 1, it will charge for access to its content.

I'm afraid it will probably fail to get enough subscribers to make ends meet. This has nothing to do with the quality of its content, which is quite good. It has everything to do with the mindset of Malaysian readers who are used to free content. No other content provider charges for access, other than Malaysiakini.

So what makes Mkini so special? Malaysiakini has got one thing that no other publication has -- the goodwill and support of civil society. As Anwar himself put it:

“At a time when we had massive restrictions, where the media was nothing but incessant propaganda, Malaysiakini was there."

Malaysiakini has been prosecuted, persecuted, had its office raided but it kept on reporting alternative political news and views that mainstream media was not reporting. It imposed a paywall pretty early on and at first the take up rate was not great but over time, more and more people paid for access because they appreciated what Malaysiakini was doing.

Today, because of its huge traffic, it's also able to get quite a lot of advertising. So, Malaysiakini has got paid subscription and advertising going for it. That's how it survives.

The Malaysian Insight is a good read, for sure. And sometimes it even gets scoops that Malaysiakini didn't have. For example, it was the first to report about the Tommy Thomas issue. But unless it can consistently get scoops like that, I don't think many people will pay for access. It doesn't enjoy the special goodwill that people have for Malaysiakini. So people will ask themselves whether the news they can get from TMI is so unique, so special, so exclusive that they have to pay for it. The answer will inevitably be no. Whatever TMI reports, it's just a matter of time before other media outlets (namely Malaysiakini) picks up on it too. That makes it hard for it to charge.

Can it survive on advertising? Possibly if it attract a ton of traffic. Like I said, it's a pretty good read so maybe it will be able to do this. But the paywall won't work.

UMNO has no winning option

As mentioned in a previous post, there would be definite blow-back from UMNO after Gerakan's Andy Yong dared to suggest UMNO be kicked out of BN.

BN is now basically UMNO, MCA, MIC and Gerakan. Will they stick together and try to forge a new strategy together or will they go their separate ways and try to either strike it out on their own or forge new alliances?

Frankly, whether BN survives as a coalition of four component parties (one big brother and three tiny sibling) or whether it breaks up doesn't really make a difference because BN is basically UMNO now (UMNO won 54 seats while the three components combined got a miserable grand total of three seats)

So the question isn't really what BN will do but what UMNO will do. Let's look at its options. 

Option 1: Become a multi-racial party
This seems to be the option favored by KJ and Nazri. Unlike many of their colleagues they recognize that the Malaysian electorate does not vote mainly along racial lines anymore and that multi-racialism is the way forward. The only problem with this approach is who wants to join a multi-racial UMNO? What appeal is there for a non-Malay (or even a Malay for that matter) to join this antiquated, out-of-power party?

Option 2: Stay Malay-based and go at it alone
Let's say they ditch the other three non-Malay component parties and leave BN. As a standalone Malay party their appeal would be very narrow. Firstly, no non-Malays would vote for them (whereas in the past, those few non-Malays who actually still supported MCA, MIC and Gerakan would do so). Secondly in order to win over the urban Malay crowd it would need to be very progressive. This would alienate its rural, more conservative base. And even so, it's unlikely that urban, progressive Malays would prefer UMNO over any of the Pakatan component parties (yes, including DAP). The reason is obvious. UMNO doesn't have any progressive credentials.

Option 3: Join forces with PAS
Let's say it realizes it doesn't have the credibility to rebrand itself as a progressive party. So, instead it goes far right and joins forces with PAS to form an ultra-Malay/Muslim party. That's problematic too. As with Option 2, no non-Malay would vote for such a coalition. Nor would any progressive, urban Malay. But there's also a problem with the conservative base too. Don't forget, for many years, UMNO and PAS were rivals. There are many PAS supporters who despise UMNO and vice versa. For sure there would be some hardcore conservatives who would vote for such a coalition but you can be equally sure there are a number of PAS supporters who would become disillusioned with such a pairing and the same with UMNO members.

Looking at UMNO's options, we can help but conclude its future is bleak. Whether it goes progressive and multi-racial or whether it turns into a far-right, ultra Malay party, it can't win.

Hancur... Part 3

Read Hancur… Part 1 Read Hancur… Part 2

So, now that BN is reduced from 13 to just four parties, what's gonna happen next?

Political analyst James Chin says: “UMNO is BN, so as long as UMNO is alive, BN will be alive. But they may go for a new name.”

Makes sense.

But Gerakan's Andy Yong has a novel alternative concept: How about kicking UMNO out of BN?

That's an interesting idea but all it's really good for is a chuckle because it just won't happen. If anything it will be the remaining component parties that will leave BN. But then again, they might not. The "abused wives" syndrome is very strong and it's very difficult for the likes of MCA to even contemplate leaving even though some of its leaders have indicated that it was considering it.

Anyway, sit back and watch the fireworks as UMNO leaders whack Andy Yong and Gerakan for daring to even suggest that UMNO be kicked out of BN. Also watch out for some UMNO diehards whacking MCA in the process just out of pique. And then watch as some MCA guys hit back while others try to placate Big Brother. Some things never change.

Hancur... Part 2

Read Hancur… Part 1 Read Hancur… Part 3

Will MCA be the ninth (that's right, 9th) party to leave BN?

Four from Sabah have already left. Another four from Sarawak has just left.

How much longer will MCA, MIC and Gerakan stay on? Let's see.

Hancur... Part 1

Read Hancur… Part 2 Read Hancur… Part 3

The first of the fixed deposits in East Malaysia to go was Sabah. Enough BN state reps jumped ship to make it possible for Pakatan to control the state. It took a bit longer for BN reps in Sarawak to bail from the sinking ship that is BN but jump they did... and en masse.

The entire Sarawak BN has collapsed as PBB, SUPP, PRS and PDP have left BN to form a new alliance with a catchy acronym called "Gabungan Parti Sarawak" (GPS).

That doesn't mean GPS will join Pakatan (the Pakatan parties there oppose the GPS parties) but it does mean they are definitely out of BN. Most likely what will happen is GPS will try to forge a friendly relationship with Pakatan at the Federal level. In other words they have woken up to the new reality.

This development will have repercussions beyond Sarawak shores. In the coming weeks and months, we will probably see more defections in neighboring Sabah, for example. Why? Because nobody wants to be left on a sinking ship. Perhaps reality had not sunk in yet with some in Sabah BN but now there is no doubt which side they should be on.

The trickle effect will reach the Peninsula too. We already saw some movements in Perak which allowed Pakatan to control that state. What we will likely see happening in the near future is more and more state reps and MPs looking to switch camps simply because they don't want to be on the losing side.

As the old song goes, "Nobody knows you when you're down and out".

Two years, more or less...

Dr M has said he would be PM for more or less two years. Conspiracy theorists have jumped on this to speculate whether that means he would stay on for longer than two years. Now he has said he will serve for as long as people want him to serve. Conspiracy theorists everywhere are rejoicing because they think this means he's going to renege on his plan to handover the helms to Anwar in about two years' time.

The conspiracy theorists will persist despite Anwar himself saying that the time period for handover is not fixed. And it is only right that they have not fixed a specific date for the handover because there are many things to be done and it's hard to ascertain exactly when those key things can be completed.

There's a place and time for everything. Right now what the country needs is a leader like Dr M who will prosecute to the full extent all the people responsible for the 1MDB scandal. We need someone with the drive and tenacity to see through these prosecutions and a restructuring of key institutions. Dr M is the man for that.

Anwar is a consensus builder. By his own admission he is probably too compassionate or too "nice" to do what needs to be done right now. But he recognizes the important work that Dr M has to do right now so he is given him the space and time to do it.

He's not going to agree with everything Dr M does but unlike in the past, Dr M doesn't have a compliant Cabinet that will rubber stamp everything he does (as was the culture in BN). He has a Cabinet full of people from other parties. The PKR, DAP and Amanah leaders won't let him do things that they think are wrong.

Dr M's tenure as PM will be for tenable only if he has the support of the people in general and his allies in Pakatan in particular. He knows that. His Pakatan allies know that. And the people know that. So let the conspiracy theorists spin their stories. There's nothing to worry about on that front.

Kul Li for UMNO Presidency?

Ku Li has always seen himself as PM material. Well, he could have had his shot had he thrown his lot behind Pakatan when they needed someone with gravitas to switch over. Turns out that someone was Dr M, always unpredictable even in his old age.

Ku Li, in contrast, is very predictable. He took a risk once, when he left UMNO to found Semangat 46 but once that venture failed, he went back to UMNO and has been conservative and predictable since.

Now, it looks like he might be contesting for the UMNO presidency. A few things immediately come to mind:

i) What the heck for? What is the point of being president of a down-and-out party that has lost the federal government and most of the states it used to control? If he wants to be PM this is obviously not the way to make it happen. As mentioned earlier, his one last shot came and went when he declined to throw his lot behind Pakatan. They would have welcomed him but he was too timid to make the leap.

ii) He won't be able to repair UMNO or restore BN which is probably going to break up (or as Wee Ka Siong astutely put it, BN only exists in name now). Ku Li may be a steady pair of hands, untainted by 1MDB and other corruption scandals, but he's not going to be able to revive UMNO (it's hard to imagine anybody can). UMNO/BN is currently too despised for it to be revived into a potent force anytime soon. We are looking multiple election cycles before that's even a remote possibility. So, it's a losing proposition.

iii) There's only downside for him, no upside. If he tries to revive UMNO/BN, he will fail spectacularly and that will be his legacy: the failure to revive his party. Perhaps this is why KJ doesn't want to go for the top post and seems to be gunning for the opposition leader post instead. He knows anyone who heads UMNO is bound to fail big time in GE15. Does Ku Li want to preside over the decimation of the party in the next polls? He will if he becomes the UMNO president.

No to new national car

Dr M has a lot of goodwill on his side. People see him as the saviour who finally managed to free Malaysia of BN control after more than six decades of uninterrupted rule. But there's only so much leeway that goodwill will buy you. Building another national car is not something the public will go for and it's highly unlikely that PKR, DAP or Amanah would go for it too.

KJ, playing the role of the faithful opposition, actually has some good points when he says:

“Unless the project results in a fully electric car, I don't see any benefit to the people, the economy and the environment."

A few generations of Malaysians have had to endure high car prices due to the high excise duty charged on other non-Malaysian car makers.

Some people might say, oh but Singapore car prices are just as high or even higher. That's true but the reason Singapore imposes extra charges on cars is that they want to control the number of vehicles on the island. That's not the reason why our car prices are high. Over here, it's to protect the national car.

Let's not have any more of that. Here's hoping that Dr M's remarks in Japan about a new national car was just an off-the-cuff remark. It's highly unlikely that this has been discussed at the Cabinet level. And if it does actually gets raised there, let's hope the other Cabinet members (and possibly including Muhyiddin) will highlight that this is not a good project to go into.