Pejuang as kingmaker?

 

Dr M has predicted that his new party, Pejuang, will win around 30 seats in the next elections and that it will then be in a position to become kingmaker.

Now, I've said many times in the past that in GE15, Harapan parties must contest in seats previously contested by Bersatu. That should include seats being contested by former Bersatu (turned Pejuang) members.

Why?

Because they are not allied to Harapan. If a party is not allied to you, why should you give way to it? Would Bersatu, UMNO or PAS give way to Pejuang? No way. So why should any Harapan parties?

In fact, I've long argued that Harapan should consider contesting against Warisan too. Why? For the same reason. Warisan is not a (true) ally of Harapan. Its commitment has all along been to Mahathir, not to Harapan.

Don't forget that Shafie rejected the proposal that Anwar become the PM designate for Harapan. There's no indication that his position on that matter has changed. But Harapan's PM designate is Anwar. As such, Warisan cannot be considered an ally. It's not the enemy but it's not an ally that can be depended on.

So, unless something formal can be drawn up whereby Warisan aligns itself formally to Harapan and agrees to accept Harapan's candidate for PM, there's no reason why Harapan should give way to Warisan either.

Harapan has to win enough seats in GE15, on its own steam, to form the government. That means at least 112 seats, on its own. It cannot rely on Warisan's numbers to add to that tally and it most certainly cannot rely on Pejuang, which has already declared publicly that it will want to play the role of kingmaker!

People don't like a backdoor government

 

A recent article in The Star asked why the Chinese political ground seems to be so cold towards Muhyiddin. I believe it's not just the Chinese but anyone who had voted for Harapan in the last elections would be cold towards him and the Perikatan government.

Why?

For the simple reason that a backdoor government subverts the will of the electorate. No one is arguing that the way Perikatan came to power is illegal. But just because something is legal doesn't mean it's ethical.

The people voted for Harapan, which consisted of PKR, DAP, Amanah and Bersatu. Perikatan is basically UMNO, PAS and Bersatu (yes, MIC and MCA are in there but they are pretty inconsequential in the grand scheme of things). Perikatan is clearly not what the people voted for.

UMNO is itching for a snap election. PAS seems keen too. Bersatu less so, for obvious reasons. It knows it's likely to be wiped out if snap polls were to be held soon. First of all, UMNO has already said it's not going to give way to Bersatu, so there are extremely few seats it can contest in. And of those, only a small handful might win. Muhyiddin might win but who else? Azmin? Don't be too sure of that. Or of the others.

So, Bersatu will go from being a small party to being a mosquito party if snap polls were held. But would UMNO do any better than it did in GE14? There's no compelling reason why the results would be better for it this time around.

In order for it to do better, it has to win seats that it had lost to Harapan the last time around. Although people were rightly disappointed that Harapan did not bring about the reforms it had promised, would those very same people turn to UMNO for such reforms?

As for PAS, there is also no compelling argument for why it should do any better. In fact, it is likely to do worse. You must remember, in GE14, when people voted for PAS, they were voting for the Opposition (opposition to BN, in general, and UMNO, in particular). Those people obviously did not like the BN government. Now that PAS is in cahoots with UMNO, will those very same people still vote for PAS? Some might. But some will not. Those who voted for PAS because they wanted to kick BN and UMNO out of power are not going to vote for PAS anymore.

It is said that people have short memories and this may be true but the Sheraton Move is not something the electorate will forget very easily. Subverting the will of the voting public is not something people will easily forget. And they will remember that going into the polls.