Is it a good thing if UMNO implodes?

We've seen Sabah and Sarawak -- BN's former safe deposits -- ditch BN/UMNO. We've also seen a couple of peninsula UMNO MPs jump ship (to become independents supportive of Pakatan).

Is this the start of a trend? Likely. Will it result in the crumbling of UMNO? Possibly. Is this a good thing? Yes and no.

Many people are happy to see UMNO defeated and quite a few want to see it completely crushed. But as Wong Chin Huat points out in this opinion piece, that may not necessarily be a good thing. He highlights three key reasons. Let's look at them, shall we?

1. PAS would become the main opposition
Wong predicts that if UMNO collapses, many of its voters will switch to PAS instead, allowing it to not only retain Kelantan and Terengganu but to also take over Perlis, Kedah and Pahang in GE15.

I don't agree with that assessment. After four or five years of Pakatan, the electorate will get a chance to compare what Pakatan has achieved and what PAS has achieved. That being the case, PAS will probably at most be able to hold on to Kelantan but it will probably lose Terengganu and it has no chance of winning Perlis, Kedah or Pahang.

2. UMNO MPs switching over to Pakatan
Will that happen? Right now the guidelines are that they have to become Pakatan-supporting independents. But that might change over time. Bersatu seems to be the one most open to accepting from UMNO members. PKR is not quite as keen but may be open to the idea if they see lots of them moving into Bersatu. If UMNO implodes, Pakatan might be flooded with UMNO members, via Bersatu and PKR, says Wong.

Again, I don't quite agree with that assessment. All the leaders of the component parties know just how hard it was for them to finally defeat BN/UMNO. These guys are not short-term-minded idiots. Having achieved the impossible, they will not risk all that they've worked so hard for over a bunch of former UMNO MPs who are not worth that much to them in the first place.

True, Bersatu could use more MPs to boost its numbers within the coalition. But their man is the PM and as a party they carry more weight than their numbers suggest. They've got nothing to worry about in this first term. What about the second term? Well, it's worth remembering that Bersatu contested in a lot of UMNO areas (and lost). In GE15, they will contest in the same areas and this time around, they are less likely to lose. Why? Because voters wouldn't want to vote for down-and-out party (which is what UMNO is already and will be even more so by GE15). They will vote Bersatu and the party will be more at par with DAP and PKR after GE15. That being the case, there is no reason to take in frogs from UMNO. What about PKR? Well, their man is going to be the PM, certainly for the second half of this first term. It doesn't have any need for UMNO MPs.

3. Implosion of Pakatan
This is related to Point 2 above. According to wong, the influx of UMNO MPs will affect the composition of the coalition and cause it to implode. This premise is based on the assumption that there would be an influx of UMNO MPs should that party collapse. I don't think it will happen. I think Pakatan will stick to its principle that these people have to be independents supportive of Pakatan. They will not be part of Pakatan.

Conclusion: UMNO's implosion is not such a bad thing after all.

UMNO members will get the president they deserve

There's a famous saying that people get the government they deserve. What it essentially means is if the general populace is apathetic about the situation they are in, they deserve more of the same. If they want change they need to take action.

For a long time, we Malaysians got the government we deserved. Despite the corruption, the arrogance, the elitism and all that bad stuff that came with BN being the government of the day, not enough Malaysians voted against BN. Which is why we had over six decades of BN rule. It's the government we collectively deserved.


Granted, the odds were always stacked against the opposition. It didn't have much money, there was blatant gerrymandering, postal votes were always suspect, etc, etc... Yet, if enough people cared enough to vote for the opposition and against BN, change could have happened. But it didn't... until GE14, where despite all the disadvantage and against all odds, Pakatan Harapan finally won. I guess at long last we deserved something better.

Well, UMNO is going to vote for a new president after the last one resigned in disgrace. Who will it be: Zahid, Ku Li or KJ?

Zahid represents that status quo. And it's reflected in the debate where he said UMNO wasn't at fault. It was the component parties that failed to deliver. It will be the same old UMNO as before under Zahid. No change.

Ku Li is a safe pair of hands. He's of royal blood so he will get on well with the royalty. He is independently wealthy, so there won't be any scandals involving "gifts" and "donations" or billions of ringgit mysteriously appearing in his bank account. He is untainted by 1MDB. He's sort of a middle-ground candidate who will try to make things better but won't really rock the boat.

KJ is the radical who wants to change UMNO and turn it into something new. He's the most savvy of the three and he's saying all the right things. UMNO has the best chance of transformation under KJ than Zahid (no change) or Ku Li (little change). But like Zahid, he was part of Najib's Cabinet and he had fervently defended his boss on the 1MDB issue. Like Zahid, he is tainted by 1MDB.

Some 165,000 party representatives from 191 party divisions will cast their votes on Saturday. So, who will it be? Answer: The president will be the one UMNO members deserve.

Will Malays continue to support UMNO?

UMNO leaders are fond of saying that the party will be all right because a huge percentage of the Malays still supported UMNO in GE14.

Annuar Musa has claimed that UMNO got 60% of the Malay vote in GE14. For the sake of discussion, let's assume he is right. The natural questions is will UMNO be able to even retain that 60% the next time around?

Close to impossible. Here are the key reasons why.

a) According to political scientist Wong Chin Huat, who is an astute observer of Malaysian politics, about 20% of Malays will vote for the government of the day (doesn't matter whether it's UMNO or Pakatan). If what Wong says is true, that whittle UMNO's support down to 40% of Malays.

b) Within that 40% there will be some diehards who will stick by UMNO no matter what. But also within that 40% will be some who -- after seeing the good that Pakatan has done -- will want to switch to voting for Pakatan. So what percentage of Malays are hardcore supporters, the ones who will stick with UMNO come hell or high water. What is that number? 30%? I think that's too generous. I'd put it at most at 20%.

Don't forget, everybody wants to be with the winner. And nobody wants anything to do with the loser. UMNO is welcome to be complacent and assume it still has 60% of Malay support and will be able to at least retain that if not improve upon it. Boy, is it in for a rude shock when GE15 comes along.

Tabung Harapan should be funded by GLCs, MNCs & rich people

It's great that Tabung Harapan has exceeded RM100 million. That's still a drop in the bucket when it comes to clearing our national debt of RM686.8 billion or RM1 trillion (depending on how you define the national debt). That's billion with a "b" and trillion with a "t". Even if Tabung Harapan eventually reaches RM1 billion, we've still got at least RM685.8 billion left to go.

This is not to say Tabung Harapan is a bad idea. In the aftermath of GE14, people were starting to set up crowdfunding initiatives to save the country. Who knows how many of those were scams and how many were for real. By setting up Tabung Harapan, there's a 100% certifiably government-approved fund you could bank money into if you want to contribute to the clearing of the national debt.

What Tabung Harapan should not expect is for ordinary, working stiff Malaysians to contribute much to it. Everyday Malaysians are having a tough enough time making ends meet. The ones who really should contribute are the GLCs, many of which are super profitable. As GLCs they should definitely do their part. Another group that should contribute significantly are MNCs, many of which are also very profitable. They should contribute to the fund. Lastly, there are also many high net worth Malaysians who could easily drop a million or two (or more) without a thought. They should be asked to do their part for the country.

Where in the past GLCs, MNCs and high net worth individuals would make "donations" to UMNO's leader (ostensibly strictly for party use only) today they can contribute to Tabung Harapan instead.

The only chance for UMNO

It doesn't seem possible for UMNO to make a comeback. Zahid Hamidi can engage in as much wishful thinking as he wants but UMNO will not be back in government anytime soon. Not in one or two or three election cycles. Perhaps not even in my lifetime.

The first thing that UMNO needs to do is to become an effective opposition. Nothing so far suggests that it can do that.

UMNO stalwarts like Nazri Aziz was fond of saying that the opposition (then, Pakatan) has never ruled the country so they have no clue how to do it. Which is not quite true because Pakatan ran a couple of states (Penang and Selangor) and they did a good job there.

In similar fashion, what can be said about UMNO is that it has never been in the opposition so it does not know how to be an effective one. That statement is only partially false (and partially true). It's false that it has never been in the opposition. It was in the opposition in Penang and Selangor. But it is true that it doesn't know how to be an effective one as it has done a poor job in both states.

If either Zahid or Ku Li wins the UMNO Presidency, don't expect any significant changes. Maybe a bit of cosmetic changes but nothing substantial. The only one who offers a progressive program for change is Khairy. This is not to say that he will be able to implement much or any of it. But at least he's saying the right things.

Saying the right things (as far as the country is concerned) might not win you votes in UMNO though. This is a party that's used to being the Big Brother, that has a Ketuanan Melayu mindset, that has feudalistic tendencies, that believes cash is king (which is why money politics is so rampant). This is not a party ripe for change. Rather it's a party that will resist change with all its might. So, good luck to KJ in trying to change UMNO (assuming he wins the presidency).

Although UMNO coming back to power seems like an impossibility, for the sake of discussion let's explore what it could do to claw its way back to power over the long run.

It needs to prove itself by being an effective opposition. That means providing real checks and balances to Pakatan (as opposed to simply providing knee-jerk criticism to everything Pakatan does). It means engaging in intelligent debate in Parliament. It means providing sound alternative solutions to the problems this country faces.

Is UMNO equipped to do any of that? Not in its current form.

Think about it. Who are UMNO's equivalents to Pakatan's Tony Pua, Rafizi Ramli and Maszlee Malik? Do they have a Syed Saddiq? No, they have a Jamal Yunos and a Papagomo.

To turn UMNO into an intelligent party, KJ will need to attract new blood. How on earth is he going to do that? If a bright, young Malay scholar (well read, sophisticated, idealistic) were to return to Malaysia and happened to be interested in politics, which option do you think this person would choose:
a) One of the Pakatan parties
b) UMNO

It's a no-brainer, folks. That's why KJ's transformation plan is a non-starter. And that's why we won't see UMNO in control of the federal government for a long, long time (if ever).

Gerakan makes the move

And so Gerakan has done it. It's left BN, leaving the coalition with only three surviving members: UMNO, MCA and MIC.

The move will make no difference at the Parliamentary level because Gerakan did not win a single federal seat in GE14. But psychologically it will make a pretty big impact. Sabah BN component parties were the first to jump ship. Then Sarawak BN component parties deserted BN en masse. Gerakan is the first major peninsula party to leave BN.

In response, Zahid Hamidi has mooted a rebranding of BN in the form of a new coalition. One can't help but wonder how it would be any different from the old BN other than having a new name. Would they invite PAS to join in?

If it did, out goes MCA and MIC. So an UMNO/PAS coalition it would be. Wow, that would sure win back the non-Malay/non-Muslim votes!

If it just includes MCA and MIC how is it any different from what it is the situation now? Perhaps a new understanding that all three are actually equal partners? That sure will go down well with the UMNO grassroots and leaders!

The dilemma UMNO and MCA/MIC face is almost insurmountable. They need each other, yet they are the cause of each other's downfall.

UMNO needs MCA/MIC to give a semblance of multiracialism to the coalition. Malaysia is a country where roughly 60% of the population is Malay/Muslim. No coalition that is based on one race only can possibly win a general election.

As for MCA and MIC, which have generally been abandoned by their own respective communities, they need Malay support in order to have any hope of winning any seats.

So, they need each other. At the same time they weigh each other down. UMNO leaders and supporters alike generally view the non-Malay component parties as burdens that UMNO has to carry. They were willing to bear that burden while the going was good but now when things are bad, they want to rid themselves of excess baggage.

Meanwhile, MCA and MIC's target voters generally view them as UMNO lapdogs. This is a perception that is hard to shake.

Will a rebranded BN change anything? Not a thing.