The political situation right now is full of imponderables:
1. Why did Anwar reveal that he had the numbers even before he saw the King?
The only logical conclusion is that he wanted to induce fear (and crossovers) from UMNO MPs who were afraid his claims are true.
2. But isn't he afraid that once he alerts his enemies, they will try to thwart the crossovers?
One logical conclusion is that he believes his support is so solid that it can't be thwarted. But how can he be so sure? Another possibility is that he is playing high stakes poker. He thinks the risk is worth the potential pay-off (that the fear will induce enough new crossovers that it would more than offset any who changed their mind about crossing over).
3. Why did Zahid say that many UMNO MPs support Anwar?
The knee-jerk conclusion is that he had cut a deal with Anwar. The more likely scenario is that this was done to spook Muhyiddin into making concessions.
4. If indeed Zahid and Najib are supportive of Anwar, why?
Assuming that Anwar is savvy enough to know he can't possibly make a deal with these two and hope to survive politically, the only logical conclusion is that they believe that they are somehow better off with Anwar as PM than with Muhyiddin (even if there's no deal in place). In other words, they might view him as the lesser evil for some reason. But it really can't be that it's because he's made a deal with them. That would be political suicide for Anwar.
5. If UMNO MPs are supporting Anwar because of their disappointment with Muhyiddin, what do they possibly hope to get from Anwar that they couldn't get from Muhyiddin?
Again, surely Anwar is savvy enough to know he can't reward UMNO MPs with even better ministerial positions and even cushier GLC jobs than Muhyiddin. So what has he got to offer? Perhaps those UMNO MPs are banking on the fact that once Anwar finally gets to become PM, he will want to hold so dearly to that long-sought-after position that he will do anything to stay in power, including cutting them some sweetheart deals. They might be wrong but that's the only logical explanation for why they would want to support him. It can't be because they support his pro-reform and multiracial agenda.
6. If Anwar is contemplating deals with UMNO MPs, how does he hope to get DAP's support?
This leads us to believe he is somehow able to offer UMNO MPs something they want that DAP is able to swallow. But it's hard to imagine what that could be if not ministerial and GLC positions. Maybe he can get the UMNO MPs to come into this without any explicit deals and rely on their gullibility in thinking they can change him.
7. If Anwar indeed had the numbers, why didn't he give the names to the King so that the King could make a decision on what to do next?
Perhaps he didn't have any exact numbers but only ball park figures based on what each party leader (including from UMNO) told him they could muster. And perhaps he's hoping that if the King takes it upon himself to individually ask each MP what their stance was with regard to Anwar as PM, they would affirm their support for him (for whatever reasons that are important to them).
8. How can Anwar hope to get enough MPs from UMNO when there are so many denials?
Of course there will be many denials at this stage. Who in their right minds will reveal themselves as people who are just about to crossover? Of course they will deny vehemently and claim that they are totally against Anwar and DAP, and so on. Well, they are totally against him until they aren't. Once it's a fait accompli, and he's PM, you can be sure all kinds of people will come forward and say they were secretly supportive of him all the while.
I guess in a matter of weeks, we will find out the answers to many of these imponderables. Anwar will eventually prove to be a fool or a king, so to speak (or perhaps we should change the saying to "a fool or a PM").
