PH needs to be ready for snap polls.

What if come May 18, Muhyiddin loses the vote of no confidence in Parliament? Most likely he will ask the King to dissolve Parliament and that will lead to a snap election.

If that were to happen, Pakatan Harapan needs to work out seat allocations among DAP, PKR and Amanah to cover practically the whole of Malaysia, including seats contested by the Dr M faction of Bersatu and Warisan.

The reason is obvious. PH needs to be able to form the government without relying on parties outside of the coalition.

Warisan has been with PH all along but don't forget, it was originally supposed to be part of the Sheraton Move. So far, its leader Shafie Apdal has declared support for Dr M but not necessarily for PH per se and not for Anwar either. So wherever Dr M goes, Warisan is likely to go too.

Dr M's faction in Bersatu is only around six people at the moment. But in the close fight for control of Parliament, six seats can make a huge difference. If majority control depends on those six seats you can be sure Dr M and gang will want to assert control over PH and call all the shots. And if they don't get their way, they are likely to pull Warisan with them too.

So, PH must be prepared to contest not only in constituencies where Muhyiddin's Bersatu, UMNO/BN, PAS and GPS are contesting but also where Dr M's faction and Warisan are contesting.

They could make a deal with Dr M and Warisan to be friendly parties and avoid contesting in the same area but they should require Dr M and Warisan to publicly (and loudly and frequently) assert their allegiance to the PH cause, saying if they win their seats they will support a PH government.

This is not a surefire guarantee that they won't just turn around and team up with some other faction to set up some new rival coalition but it would make their name be mud in the eyes of the public if they do so after persistently and very clearly telling the voters their allegiance is with PH.

That is one approach if they want to go into the election with Dr M's faction and Warisan as allies. It's probably not the best option though. It's much better if PH goes into GE15 alone, meaning the three parties in the coalition go for a majority on their own.

Whereas in GE14 they needed Dr M to create the tipping point for the tide to go PH's way, in GE15 the situation is very different. Dr M may be a master politician but after the Sheraton Move and Unity Government debacles, he's pretty much a spent force. They can and should try to win GE15 without him (or Warisan).

If they win, even by the slimmest of margins (let's say 112), you can be sure there will be a lot of MPs and parties knocking on their doors asking for cooperation and collaboration. They can accept these MPs and parties as friends of PH outside of the coalition. But they should never make the same mistake as they did before in taking in a party like Bersatu, which never fit well with the rest of PH, and then allow this relatively small party take over the reigns of the coalition.

Bersatu, UMNO & PAS will still split the Malay vote

There is a belief among some political observers that Pakatan Harapan is doomed because whereas in GE14, the Malay votes were split; come GE15, the Malay votes won't be split anymore.

Malays in GE14 were split three ways among Bersatu, PAS and UMNO. Now that all three are working together, according to this thinking, there will be no more splitting of votes. All the Malay votes would go to whichever candidate Perikatan Nasional (PN) offers up.

Since UMNO had won 54, PAS 18 and Bersatu 13 (total = 85), the assumption by these political observers is that all 85 will now go to Perikatan.

The problem with this simplistic analysis is that it assumes that the Malay-Muslim demographic these three parties target is monolithic. It is not. When this demographic went to vote in GE14, the choice they had in front of them was not so much Bersatu, PAS or UMNO but actually pro-UMNO or anti-UMNO.

This binary choice would fundamentally still be the same come GE15, except that the pro-UMNO group would now have PN to vote for instead of BN. The anti-UMNO vote won't necessarily go to Bersatu or PAS anymore (because Bersatu and PAS are now with UMNO). That vote will instead go to Pakatan Harapan. With that in mind, let's work out the numbers, shall we?

Let's say UMNO has a very loyal following and manages to retain much of the 54 seats it won last time. What about the 18 seats that PAS got and 13 seats that Bersatu got?

For sure PN will win some of those seats but it will not win all. It might not even get half. The very electorate that had voted for PAS or Bersatu out of anger at UMNO will be disgusted by the fact that these parties are now in bed with UMNO. Such voters will not vote for PAS or Bersatu anymore.

But let's be generous in our assumption and say PN manages to get roughly half. Let's say they get 16 out of the 31 seats PAS and Bersatu had won last time. Assuming that UMNO retains all 54 (which is very generous indeed considering all the revelations about corruption that have since emerged), the total number of seats that PN would be able to muster is 54 + 16 = 70.

It's safe to assume that the three seats won by MIC + MCA will be wiped out because of non-Malay voter anger at these parties for backing three avowedly Ketuanan Melayu parties. But let us at the same time conservatively assume that GPS manages to retain all of its 18 seats. This is actually unlikely because some Sarawakian voters are bound to be upset that GPS is now working with PAS. But let us be generous in our assumption and say the number is 18 for GPS.

What's the total that we are looking at for PN? It's 70 + 18 = 88. Some might think that's a lucky number but it's not a great figure if you are looking to control Parliament.

Muhyiddin's charm offensive

When word first got out that Muhyiddin and Azmin had succeeded with the Sheraton Move 2.0 there was intense speculation as to how Muhyiddin would approach his new position as PM.

One possibility was that he would not give a damn about public opinion and proceed to govern the way everyone feared -- that is, appointing Cabinet members with ongoing corruption cases, appoint an AG who will drop corruption cases against UMNO leaders, implement Ketuanan Melayu policies, etc, etc. The other possibility is that he would go on the charm offensive and assure the rakyat that his would be a clean government and that it would be a government for all, etc, etc.

Turns out he is opted for the second approach. In his inaugural address he said all the right things, which tells us he is in this for the long-run. The first approach, a scorched earth policy, would mean he knows his coalition can't possibly last and he will do what he can while he can. The second option means he wants to be PM beyond GE15.

Apparently UMNO and PAS are playing ball and are also saying the right things, like there should be no dropping of corruption cases and that the PM should have the right to appoint whoever he wants to the Cabinet (with no preconditions set).

It's just a matter of time before Muhyiddin start feeling the pressure from various factions to adopt hard-line policies that his party as well as UMNO and PAS have been spouting all a long. Don't forget, Muhyiddin himself is a self-proclaimed "Malay First" leader and UMNO is all about Ketuanan Melayu while PAS is for implementing hudud and turning Malaysia into an Islamic state.

To quote political analyst Wong Chin Huat: "Now they are in power unchecked by the non-Malays (MCA and MIC will be more yesman than during BN time), their supporters will ask them to deliver changes  that Harapan Malay parties had been accused of not making."

Wong adds that this will "hit hardest on PAS, whose supporters may push for implementation of Hudud punishments or closing down of casino in Genting Highlands and the Heineken beer brewery near the Federal Highway."

How will Muhyiddin be a "PM for everyone" when there is so much internal pressure for him to champion Ketuanan Melayu policies?

In trying to do this balancing act, he will probably end up dissatisfying everyone. To the non-Malays, he will be seen as too pro-Malay and to his hardline party members, he would be seen as not pro-Malay enough.

Then, there is the internal political rivalry and bickering that is bound to happen. Already there are reports of murmurs of discontent in UMNO. We have no idea who he will appoint to his Cabinet but it's a safe bet that Azmin and Zuraida will have prominent roles in it. This will not sit well with UMNO and PAS leaders who will surely expect all the plum positions to go to them. This will just amplify over the next few days, weeks and months leading up to the May 18 sitting of Parliament.

As I've said before in previous articles, if Bersatu leaders found it hard dealing with the rest of PH (DAP, PKR and Amanah) which had adopted an appeasement policy that allowed Bersatu to play the dominant role in PH, it is hard to imagine how they will be able to manage dealing with UMNO and PAS, who together via Muafakat Nasional, have twice as many MPs (60) as Bersatu (30).

Bersatu has only known what it's like to play the dominant role. It it not used to deferring to anyone. Guess what, UMNO is exactly the same way. In BN, it was the big brother that everyone kowtowed to. PAS, meanwhile, has never been able to last in any alliance it has been involved in. Put these three parties together and you have a powder keg of epic proportions.

So, yes, everyone will play nice for now and say all the right things. Let's see how this charm offensive lasts.

Muhyiddin's gargantuan challenges

Muhyiddin and Azmin managed to create a backdoor government. That's quite a feat, especially since they were going up against Dr M and Anwar, both political animals with tons of experience dealing with political shenanigans. Yet, they managed to pull it off. Unfortunately for Muhyiddin, that's the easy part.

He's got challenges in the short and medium terms.

Short term
The short term challenge of course is being able to prove he actually does have the numbers come May 18 when parliament convenes.

Based on Malaysiakini figures, here's what he has right now:
Bersatu (30)
UMNO (39)
PAS (18)
GPS (18)
*If you add in MCA & MIC, that's another (3)

That adds up to 108. PAS has been quoted as saying Perikatan has 114. It's not clear where the 6 comes from. (He will need at least another four to make up the 112 majority).

You can be sure there will be a lot of horsetrading between now and May 18 on both sides. Dr M and Anwar will pull out all stops to try to bolster their numbers and Muhyiddin will do the same for his.

On the Harapan side, their argument will simply be: Join us because we will prevail and you want to be on the winning side. Don't be on the losing side when the dust has settled.

Muhyiddin's argument will be: We are the winning side. I am the PM and Perikatan controls the government. A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush. Don't join the Opposition because they will stay in the Opposition.

Which argument is more convincing is yet to be seen. But right now, Harapan is saying it has 114. If that is true, then Muhyiddin actually does have only 108. Maybe the truth is a bit tighter with Harapan having 112 and Muhyiddin 110. That's very close but a miss is as good as a mile.

Whatever the case, Muhyiddin has got to convince more MPs to join his side if he want to get past May 18 and remain PM. Not easy.

If Harapan is able to prove, through a vote of no confidence, that it has 112, perhaps Muhyiddin will ask the King to dissolve Parliament to make way for snap elections. Then he has a different headache to deal with (which is more or less the same as his main medium-term challenge).

Medium Term
Let's say he manages to prove he has the majority and is able to stay on as PM until GE15, around two years down the road. Two years might seem like a long time but it's not enough time to sort out seat allocations among Bersatu, UMNO and PAS. In fact, no amount of time will ever be enough because these three parties are all vying for the same Malay-Muslim vote.

Right now, Muhyiddin is heading a minority government. His party has a grand total of 30 MPs. UMNO and PAS together have 57 (close to double his numbers). There is no way they will give Bersatu the lion's share of constituencies to contest in. They will want it for themselves, and in fact UMNO and PAS will also have disputes over seat allocations.

In contrast, PH has already got their seat allocations largely sorted out. The only new seats they have to work out are the ones previously contested by Bersatu.

As political scientist Wong Chin Huat has pointed out, all three parties were largely contesting against each other in GE14. "The inconvenient fact is, for every Malay candidate who gets to represent PN, there will likely be two aspirants who are dropped and unhappy," says Wong.

What you will likely see are two problematic scenarios:
a) Either the unhappy ones contest the constituency anyway, as independents if necessary
b) They don't contest but instead do some sabotaging

Either way, it doesn't look good for the candidate who was chosen, who will not enjoy the support of the other key parties in his coalition. In contrast with PH, every DAP, PKR and Amanah candidate will enjoy the support of his teammates.

The reality is that PH is a formal coalition comprised of three parties that complement each other and who work together well. PN, however, is a marriage of convenience involving parties that are direct rivals to each other.

Whether there are snap elections or elections two years down the road, the problem of seat allocations will plague PN and it is not something they can solve due to the nature of their key component parties. All three are vying for the same demographics.

Who's to blame?

Muhyiddin has his version of events, Dr M has his version of events, Pakatan Harapan has its version of events. Muhyiddin blames Dr M and Anwar. Dr M blames Muhyiddin and Anwar. PH blames Azmin, Muhyiddin and Dr M.

Let's look at media accounts to reconstruct what actually happened. Maybe then we can ascertain who is more blameworthy. The following are based on what's been reported by the press. The facts are pretty indisputable.

1. The PH presidential council had a meeting to discuss the transition issue. Instead of securing a firm date for the transition, it ended up leaving it entirely to Dr M to decide when he wants to step down. An incredible concession on the part of the other PH parties.

2. Despite the concession, Azmin and Muhyiddin attempted the Sheraton Move, to set up an alternative coalition involving Azmin's faction, Bersatu, UMNO/BN, PAS, GPS and Warisan. Dr M was to be the PM and he had the support of all the parties involved.

3. Dr M refused to work with UMNO en bloc so he decided to resign as PM and Bersatu chairman to scuttle the deal.

4. After meeting with Dr M to get his side of the story, the other PH parties decided to take his word for it and blamed Azmin and Bersatu for the debacle. Furthermore, they supported Dr M to be PM.

5. At one point, it seemed like every party in the government and in the opposition supported the idea of Dr M being the PM. That would change very rapidly though.

6. PH invited Dr M to help revive the PH government with him as the head. He refused and instead offered a unity government concept whereby he was beholden to no party and could pick and choose who he wanted for his cabinet without having to consult any party.

7. The UMNO-PAS side rejected this concept and withdrew their support for Dr M to be PM.

8. The PH parties also rejected this concept and withdrew their support for Dr M to be PM.

9. Suddenly, from having nearly universal support to carry on as PM, Dr M was left with only support from Bersatu and Azmin's faction. And even that would soon fade.

10. Azmin's faction and Bersatu decided to proceed with the Sheraton Move 2.0, this time with Muhyiddin as the PM.

11. PH and Dr M made concessions to each other to prevent the Sheraton Move 2.0 from succeeding. PH was willing to support Dr M for PM. In return Dr M was willing to help revive the PH government.

12. The Sheraton Move 2.0 worked as Muhyiddin was able to convince the King that he had the numbers.

13. Dr M tried to see the King to show that he actually had the numbers but the King refused to see him.

14. Muhyiddin was appointed the country's 8th PM.

So, there you have it, the most accurate timeline of events as they unfolded. Read it, understand what happened and decide for yourself who's the bad guy(s) and who's the victim.

Back to 3

Some people say Pakatan Harapan has crumbled. Actually that's not true. The PH government has crumbled but PH as a coalition is as strong as ever. The testing times that they're experiencing now is bringing the three remaining parties closer than ever before.

The Sheraton Move has toppled the PH government but there are three very positive things to have come out of it.

1. It has removed the problematic components from the coalition. Bersatu and the Azmin faction are now no longer an enemy within. The coalition is now down to the original three, who trust each other and who can work well together.

2. PH can now push the narrative that the reason they were not able to fulfill a lot of the promises of reforms in the past 22 months was that Bersatu had hindered them from doing so.

3. There is now a very stark contrast between the two major coalitions in this country. One is for multi-racialism and the other is for Ketuanan Melayu.

Muhyiddin's numbers to be tested sooner or later

We've heard that Muhyiddin has the majority of MPs with him and PAS has cited the figure 114. But Muhyiddin has not disclosed who made up the 114. Pakatan Harapan leaders accuse him of lying about the numbers.

Does he really have the majority? We would know once Parliament convenes because surely there would be a vote of no confidence called to test his claim.

There are reports that Parliament might not convene as schedule on March 9 but could be postponed to a later date. Each additional day Parliament is held off though will make more and more people suspicious about his numbers. If he has the numbers, what has he got to fear?

In any event, he can't delay it forever (June 5 is the deadline). So, eventually his numbers will be tested. He will have a tough time on his hands preventing crossovers because when you have a razor thin margin, everybody considers themselves to be a kingmaker.

"You don't give me what I want and I will cause your government to collapse," will be the slogan for every MP in his coalition. How he is going to please everybody from his own party, from Azmin's faction, from UMNO, from PAS and from GPS, is anybody's guess.

All it takes is for a handful of disgruntled MPs to cross over to the others side and everything collapses. That is the perilous situation he is in right now because he chose to create a backdoor government. You live by the sword, you die by the sword.

Contest like you have only 92

So, Muhyiddin has been sworn in as PM. The majority he claims to have will surely be challenged once Parliament convenes. But when will that be? It's supposed to be March 9 but Muhyiddin, as PM, can ask the King to delay it until early June, apparently.

Having Parliament convene later will buy Muhyiddin some time to consolidate power and increase his numbers. But such a delay could also be a double-edged sword. He could also see his numbers decline if Anwar and Dr M are able to convince MPs to cross over to the Pakatan Harapan side.

But even if Anwar and Dr M are not so good at wooing frogs, there is also the likelihood (or perhaps certainty) of infighting among the Perikatan Nastional component parties.

Bersatu, which has 36 MPs, will consider itself to be the linchpin of the coalition because the PM is from there. BN and PAS, meanwhile, will consider themselves to be the key components because collectively they have 60 MPs, which dwarfs Bersatu's numbers. Meanwhile, GPS will make major demands because it considers itself to be the kingmaker.

Everybody will make demands and nobody will give an inch. This is the powder keg that is Perikatan Nasional.

UMNO and PAS may have given way to Muhyiddin just to get back into government again but there's no way they will allow Bersatu, with its meager 36 MPs, to assume the role of top dog in the coalition. They will want to have the final say on everything. But Bersatu, which is used to calling the shots, will never allow this.

Their leaders will say, "If we didn't initiate the Sheraton Move, there would be no Perikatan," to which UMNO and PAS will counter-claim: "If we didn't support you, there wouldn't be Perikatan too". Finally, GPS will chip in, "Hey, you Peninsula guys, don't forget, without our crucial support, you would be in the Opposition".

If you like fireworks, just sit back and you will not be disappointed. Give them a month before the infighting breaks out wide into the open.

Even in PH, where three parties (PKR, DAP and Amanah) had decided to kowtow to Bersatu, there was still major friction almost right from the start. What more a coalition of rivals like Perikatan, where nobody will defer to the others.

So, Muhyiddin has a tough choice ahead. Have Parliament convene as per schedule and he could end up being the Malaysian PM with the shortest term ever. Or delay Parliament's sitting and have internecine warfare see his numbers decline.

As for PH, since they claim to have the majority (at first is was 114, then it rose to 115 at one point and then back down to 114. Last I read, it's 112). That figure is going to swing wildly over the next few days and weeks as horsetrading on an unprecedented scale erupts on both sides.

If by the time Parliament convenes, PH actually has got at least 112 firmly on its side, of course they should go for a vote of no confidence. But if they don't quite have the numbers, they need to switch strategies and focus on winning GE15 instead.

That means not wasting any more time or energy on trying to back-door the backdoor government of Muhyiddin.

In terms of mindset, PH needs to think of itself as a coalition with 92 MPs. Not 102 (inclusive of Warisan & UPKO), not 108 (inclusive of Dr M's faction of Bersatu) and certainly not 114 or 115 (inclusive of crossovers). They need to accept the fact that what they've got -- and all they've got -- is 92.

With that in mind, they know they need to get another 20 more seats (at least) to gain control of the government. They cannot afford to rely on Bersatu at all. Nor can they rely on Warisan and UPKO. They need to get 112 on their own. Why? Because they know they can trust each other.

They have to contest in almost all of the 222 constituencies. That includes seats that Bersatu or Warisan would be contesting in. This of course would cause friction with Bersatu and Warisan/UPKO but so what?

Collaborating with them only makes sense if the aim is to give Muhyiddin a taste of his own backdoor medicine. If that fails once Parliament convenes, all bets are off.

A collaboration with these parties is actually hazardous to PH because they would have to accommodate them and make all sorts of concessions. Instead, PH should chart its own course and decide what they have to do to win over the rakyat in GE14. Like I said in a recent post, PH needs to win control the old fashioned way.

Full throttled horse trading ahead

And so it seems the Sheraton Move 2.0 triumphed over Pakatan Harapan 2.0. At least for now. But it will surely be tested once Parliament convenes and a vote of no confidence is introduced. Before we get to that though, let's look at how we got here.

Somehow or another Muhyiddin managed to convince the King that he had the numbers. That means at least 112 on his side although PAS has claimed the number is 114.

We don't know how he got to that number but we can take an educated guess. We were told the King asked the party heads to state how many MPs they each had on their side.

Muhyiddin probably claimed the 144 to comprise of:
36 from Bersatu (25 Bersatu + 11 from Azmin's faction)
42 from BN
18 from PAS
18 from GPS

Note that the Bersatu figure of 36 does not include Dr M even though he's technically still a member of Bersatu because he obviously does not support Muhyiddin for PM. But doesn't the 114 figure grossly exaggerate the numbers that he has going for him?

From Bersatu itself, we know that Dr M, Mukhriz and Syed Saddiq are not for Muhyiddin. Mukhriz has also claimed that Maszlee Malik, Eddin Syazlee Shith and Amiruddin Hamzah are also against Muhyiddin. That's six Bersatu MPs out of the Muhyiddin group already. PKR has said Richard Riot and Baru Bian have switched camps too.

If all this is true, Muhyiddin would only have 114 - 8 = 106.

But even if PH can prove this to be case, will they be able to convince the King to change his mind? Or will the King instead say put it to the test in Parliament?

The Parliament is set to convene March 9. If it does convene on that day, there will almost certainly be a vote of no confidence to test Muhyiddin's claim of having the majority.

But apparently, Muhyiddin could ask the King to postpone the opening of Parliament until the first week of June, which would buy him time to consolidate his numbers.

Meanwhile, Dr M has published a list of 114 names of people who back him as the PM of the country. Will the King accept this as proof? Or will he proceed with swearing in Muhyiddin as the PM and asking the warring factions to sort this matter out in Parliament through a vote of no confidence.

Whether the King appoints Muhyiddin or actually recognizes Dr M's claim, there's bound to be a vote of no confidence when Parliament reopens (either on March 9 or early June).

So, folks, you can expect a lot of horse-trading to go on until that vote of no confidence happens. On the PH side you can expect the original PH parties (PKR, DAP, Amanah) to stay firm. Let's assume Dr M's faction and Warisan/UPKO also remain solid. The only questionable ones are the newcomers who have just crossed over. Will they stay firm with PH? Nobody knows.

Whatever the outcome, the one good thing about this whole Sheraton Move saga is that it's flushed the Azmin faction and Bersatu out of PH. In the short run, this backdoor government move may end up costing PH control of the government but in the long run, it will help PH become a stronger coalition. 

In any event, GE15 is about two years away. PH is better positioned to do well in that one now that it's gotten rid of its most problematic components.