Forget about a counter-coup

 

UMNO is itching for a general election. Be careful what you wish for!

 

Back when the Sheraton Move first happened and everything started to fall apart for Pakatan Harapan, I said the best option for Harapan moving forward is to prepare for GE15 and aim to win a simple majority without Dr M's faction and without Warisan's support.

The rationale was simple. Dr M wants to be a king-maker. Even with as few as 5 MPs back him, he wants to be the one to dictate things in a Harapan coalition. That won't do.

As for Warisan, it has never supported Harapan per se. It supported Harapan while Dr M was in Harapan. And it's been reported that it was Warisan that rejected the idea of Anwar as PM and Mukhriz as DPM. Warisan is not a steady and reliable ally.

Harapan cannot afford to rely on the support of "kingmakers" who want to be able to have the final say on things. Instead it should prepare to win GE15 without them.

But what about a counter-coup instead? First of all, Anwar doesn't have the numbers. Maybe he did at one time but right now, it doesn't seem like he does anymore.

Besides, in order to have the numbers it seems Anwar would need UMNO and DAP to be on the same team and that's impossible. UMNO has said it won't work with DAP, and DAP has said it won't work with UMNO.

So, just forget about the counter-coup and focuse on GE15!

Muhyiddin at his weakest

 

There are many imponderables when you think about the political situation in this country. One big imponderable is what on earth made Muhyiddin think it was a good idea to pull Bersatu out of Pakatan Harapan and team up with its rival UMNO instead? How on earth did he think this could possibly be a stable situation? What could have possibly convinced him that the situation could be sustainable?

This marriage of convenience had the word "Implosion" all over it. But he went ahead anyway. And this is the mess he got himself into. His situation is so precarious that he actually resorted to trying to get the King to declare a state of Emergency.

When news first got out about the Cabinet approving this desperado move, everyone was concerned because the common understanding is that the King has to act on the advice of the PM. Several articles published by online media quoted constitutional lawyers affirming that the King should act on the advice of the PM. Most did not regard his discretion to include rejecting that advice.

But reject his advice, the King did.

We don't know what the conference of rulers talked about but they probably realized that not only would an Emergency declaration be highly unpopular because of how unnecessary it would be, it would also destroy our economy. And not to mention it was a blatant political power play that had little to do with curtailing the virus, and more to do with curtailing Anwar.

With the advice of the other rulers, the King said no.

Can Muhyiddin challenge that decision in court? He could. Would he win? Very possible, if you believe what the constitutional lawyers say. But he's not going to do it. He's already so weakened by this situation, the last thing he needs now is a Battle Royale with the royalty.

Muhyiddin is in bad shape. His only consolation is that the Opposition hasn't exactly got its act together either. Anwar seems to be acting like a lone wolf, trying to cobble together a majority in Parliament. From what's been published, it seems like he's been reaching out to UMNO MPs to get the numbers. But if he gets a bunch of UMNO guys to join him, DAP will leave. He can't assume DAP will stick with him no matter what.

So, while Muhyiddin might have lost his majority, it's not obvious that Anwar has the majority either. The solution might have to be snap polls. Nobody really wants that but sometimes a bad option is the only option.

Whatever the case, one thing is clear: Muhyiddin's back door gambit has come back to haunt him.