Will MCA finally grow a spine?

Add caption

The reason for MCA's downfall is very straightforward and simplistic: It was seen as UMNO's lapdog. With each election cycle for the past few elections, its representation grew smaller and smaller, yet it stuck to the same formula of kowtowing to UMNO.

Albert Einstein once said: "Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

MCA must have been insane because even as it became painfully obvious to everyone that the Chinese community had rejected MCA because of its subservient attitude towards UMNO, the powers that be within the party felt that it was a good strategy to continue kowtowing to its "big brother".

Perhaps the party's biggest humiliation was when Nazri Aziz likened MCA to “a wife who complains all day long that she was being abused, raped and not given enough food, but yet does not want to divorce her husband.”

As if to prove Nazri right MCA continued to slavishly kowtow to UMNO, unable to even contemplate the notion of leaving BN if UMNO didn't change its ways.

Now, MCA is down to just one single MP out of 222 in Parliament. Having been all but wiped out in GE14, you would think with nothing more to lose MCA would finally grow a spine.

Wee Ka Siong, the sole MCA MP seems to indicate there will be a change in how MCA deals with UMNO:

"Under our current leadership, whatever UMNO says today will no longer be our responsibility. Whatever (wrong things the) past leaders said, whatever (wrong things) former ministers said, I'm not footing the bill for them. Sorry. We won't do that."

Now that Nazri has gone into silent mode ever since BN lost, UMNO MP Annuar Musa has taken up the role of putting MCA back into its place, saying:

"This statement (from Wee) as though MCA had been propping up UMNO should be considered with an honest heart. Unless the 'stroke' (suffered by MCA) for the second time since GE13 was so bad that not only was MCA left crippled, but also unable to think! If that is the case, then MCA should prepare to buy their own gravestone."

Normally this kind of admonishment from UMNO will have MCA leaders scurrying to find ways to atone to "big brother". Let's see what Wee Ka Siong has to say in return.

We shall see.

One thing MCA, MIC and Gerakan never realized, until it was too late, was that collectively they actually had a lot of power in their hands. Even as their numbers started dwindling over the past few election cycles they hand one ace up their sleeve which is that they provided BN with the justification to call itself a multi-racial coalition. Without MCA/MIC/Gerakan, BN would be just UMNO + East Malaysian parties, which would be rather untenable.

Some might argue that UMNO + East Malaysian parties alone could have the numbers to control the majority in parliament but these people forget that UMNO doesn't just rely on Malay voters to win contests. There are not that many seats which are almost exclusively Malay. Certainly in the West Coast most seats that UMNO contests in have Chinese and Indian voters as well.

MCA, MIC and Gerakan supporters generally vote for UMNO candidates because they see it as voting for BN. If MCA/MIC/Gerakan were no longer part of BN, those voters would not vote for UMNO candidates anymore making it hard for UMNO MPs to win. It's very obvious that UMNO + East Malaysian parties alone would not be able to win a general election.

Yet, MCA, MIC and Gerakan never leveraged that power they had in their hands. Instead, the cowered and kowtowed to UMNO every which way they could. Why they never threatened to leave unless UMNO treated them better is anybody's guess. Nazri thinks it's the abused wife syndrome. Maybe he's right.

Whatever the case, MCA is now so downtrodden, it's literally got nothing to lose. It shouldn't be afraid of leaving or at least threatening to leave an abusive relationship. But will it? One can't help but wonder if it will instead continue to do the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Now, that would really be insane!

Rafidah has some choice words for UMNO

She calls UMNO a "stupid" party.

Not one to mince her words, Rafidah has this to say about UMNO:

“I don’t want to comment on this stupid party.

“You are talking about a party where you have irresponsible (people) in charge, the party will collapse.”

“The ones who were making stupid noises before this, do you think they can be constructive now?"

UMNO's non-apology apology

UMNO reps apologize for rejecting Azlan Man but they still continue to reject him.

The constitutional crisis in Perlis is nowhere near to being resolved. The nine BN state reps that had boycotted the appointment of Azlan Man as the MB have apologized to the Perlis ruler but they are still against Azlan as MB.

So essentially, they are saying: We're sorry for defying you earlier but we are still defying you now.

This is what we call a classic non-apology apology. But it's not going to resolve anything. There is still a stalemate in Perlis.

As mentioned before, there are three potential outcomes:
i) BN concedes
ii) The ruler concedes
iii) Snap polls

Of the three, option (i) is the most likely outcome even though the constitution is on BN's side. Technically BN, which won the state (with a 2/3rds majority, no less), has the right to determine who the MB is. But, UMNO being the so-called defender of the royalty, cannot be seen as defying the royalty.

Although Shahidan is a warlord in Perlis, UMNO leaders at the federal level will soon force the nine state reps to accept the ruler's choice. Of course those nine could refuse to listen to the national leadership on this matter, in which case, we could see option (iii) happening, which is snap polls. That's even worse for BN because if there was to be a re-election, they could very well lose the state.

What is the least likely to happen is (ii) the ruler conceding. Knowing full well that UMNO would not dare take this matter to court, the ruler can stand firm and wait this out. Eventually, UMNO Perlis will back down or face the prospect of a new election.

UMNO-PAS pact would hasten each party's demise

Tajuddin moots an UMNO-PAS pact. This will hasten each party's demise.

The times they are a-changin'. The results of GE14 have made that obvious. BN, UMNO, PAS... they are all big losers. That's right. Big losers. Now, some people have the impression that PAS actually did well. But I've written extensively about how badly PAS actually fared in GE14. People who say PAS is a party to be feared are not basing their perception on facts. Look at the numbers, look at the statistics, and you will realize that PAS is a party that's inconsequential.

There is also a misplaced fear among some people that UMNO and PAS might decide to cooperate. Guess what: UMNO and PAS were already chummy during GE14, with PAS playing the role of potential spoiler in many contests (resulting in three-corner fights). As PAS was in the opposition, these three-cornered fights could have benefitted UMNO and hurt Pakatan by splitting the opposition's share of the votes. But that didn't happen and Pakatan won the elections anyway.

So, what happens if UMNO and PAS formalizes their chumminess and form an actual pact?

First, most of the non-Malay/non-Muslim component parties will be forced to leave BN. Not that they contributed much to BN's numbers but at least with MCA, MIC, Gerakan and some East Malaysian parties in the coalition, BN can still claim to be a multi-racial coalition. Once UMNO & PAS team up formally, BN is effectively a Malay/Muslim coalition.

But wouldn't an UMNO/PAS coalition be an even more powerful entity? No.

If voters had already rejected these parties separately why would they suddenly vote for them when they team up? UMNO does not enhance PAS in any way and vice versa. If anything, as a coalition, they will lose voters. Any non-Malay/non-Muslim who had voted for BN in GE14 is surely not going to vote for a new BN comprising UMNO and PAS.

What they will be left with are Malay/Muslim voters. But it is well know that there are many PAS supporters (especially in the East Coast) who despise UMNO. In fact, in GE14, they specifically voted against UMNO. Are these voters suddenly going to embrace UMNO just because it is partnering up with PAS? Perhaps some will but for sure some will not. Similarly, there will be some UMNO voters who will refuse to vote for PAS under any circumstances.

An UMNO-PAS pact can't possibly gain voters. It can only lose them. Firstly, it will lose the non-Malay/Muslim vote (whatever there was left of it). Secondly it will alienate PAS members who hate UMNO. Thirdly it will piss off UMNO members who hate PAS.

Those who fear an UMNO and PAS pact need to understand this: There is no demographic in Malaysia that will suddenly switch its support away from Pakatan in favor of a new BN consisting of UMNO and PAS. None.

Far for from a "whole is greater than the sum of its parts" situation, an UMNO-PAS pact is actually a "whole is lesser than the sum of its parts" scenario. There are no additional votes to be gained, only votes to be lost. Make no mistake, folks. An UMNO-PAS coalition would only serve to hasten each party's demise.

Dreams shattered for UMNO PM hopefuls

His hopes of becoming PM are dashed.

Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah thought he was going to become PM someday but that day never came. He even formed his own party at one time (Semangat 46) but he eventually returned to UMNO. At one point there was buzz that he could strike a deal with Pakatan and become an interim PM should Pakatan come to power while Anwar was in jail. But in the end, he stuck with UMNO even as many veterans like Daim Zainuddin and Rafidah Aziz switched to supporting Pakatan. He bet on the wrong horse and because of that he will never become PM.

Another person who will never become PM is Hishammuddin Hussein. Son of a former prime minister, he had the pedigree, the demeanor and the gravitas to become PM someday. Despite the keris-waving faux pas a few years back, he was seen as a voice of reason and moderation. But he failed to speak up when he should have.

He could have done the right thing, like Muhyiddin and Shafie Apdal, and speak out against the 1MDB scandal. He probably would have been fired but he could have then joined Dr M and gang in forming Bersatu. But he bet on the wrong horse and now his shot at becoming PM is over.

Do you know who else will never become PM? Khairy Jamaluddin. Talk about betting on the wrong horse. This guy has done it not once but twice. He was on a smooth ride towards the PM-ship when his father-in-law Pak Lah took over as PM and won the election convincingly.

Of course there was Najib and Hishammuddin who were much more senior than he was. But prior to Pak Lah coming to power, Mahathir was PM for more than two decades. With Pak Lah being so popular (leading BN to victory with over 90% control of parliament), surely he would have three or four terms in office as well. That's 15 to 20 years, after which KJ would be in a prime position to take over.

But instead of helping his father-in-law, who relied on him and his so-called 4th Floor Boys, to steer the country in the right direction, KJ was too busy consolidating his own power base. Pak Lah's PM-ship floundered and was kicked out by his own party.

Najib took over and KJ found himself in a difficult situation. Should he support the guy who ousted his father-in-law? The guy who didn't trust him enough to even give him a ministership despite his being UMNO Youth chief (KJ only became a sports minister much later after he had proven his loyalty to Najib)?

He decided yes because the alternative would be to speak truth to power and point out the mistakes and wrongdoings of Najib. If he had done that, he probably would have gotten sacked too, in which case he would have had to join Pakatan.

But Pakatan had no chance at the polls right? It would make much more sense to ride it out and wait for his chance to become PM someday. True, Zahid and Hishammuddin were more senior but he was cleverer, more savvy, more hip and more strategic. He took part in triathlons. He appeared in YouTube videos. He was the cool minister that millennials looked up to. Given time surely he could find some way to leapfrog those two old-timers. All he had to do was be patient. And he had all the time in the world because BN would always be in power. Or so he thought. He bet on the wrong horse (again) and because of that he will never become PM.

At one time UMNO was the end-all and be-all of Malaysian politics. It was the juggernaut that could never be defeated. It was the true path to power. Today, it's just the boulevard of broken dreams.

Hope Fund has some hope

Maybe the Hope Fund can work, especially if corporations contribute to it.

Dr M has announced that the government would be setting up a "Hope Fund" for people to help reduce the government's massive debt obligations.

This is not the first time Dr M has attempted to do something like this. Back during the 1998/99 economic crisis, he had set up something similar where people could donate money and even jewellery (anything of value) to help the government out of its economic woes. That one was a flop.

The reason is simple. Back then, most civic-minded and conscientious people felt the government was corrupt and didn't want to contribute. It's probably the same reason people hate the GST so much (beyond the fact that it raises the price of goods by 6%). They felt the BN government was corrupt and that the GST was needed precisely because so much public funds had been siphoned off for things like 1MDB.

When people think the government is corrupt, they don't want to contribute. Now that there is a new government in place, perhaps the Hope Fund has a chance. People may want to contribute, especially if they are confident that their donations will actually be used for its intended purpose, of paring down the government debt.

Frankly, the contributions of individuals is insignificant. It makes for good headlines to say so and so contributed his or her hard-earned savings towards saving the country. But the corporations can really make a difference. And this is where much of the big money can (and should) come from.

Some might want to contribute because they sincerely want to do "national service" and help to reduce the heavy debt burden. Some might want to do it to show the new government that it's a good corporate citizen. It doesn't matter. Whatever the motivation, if they contribute millions of ringgit, it will help the country reduce its debts.

Why Solo underperformed

Solo's opening weekend take in the US was US$103 million. That's not chump change but when it comes to a Star Wars movie, even a hundred million dollars is considered a disappointment. So what happened?

The most bandied about theory is that Star Wars fatigue has finally set in. Of all the reasons proffered, this one is the most specious. Yes, there have been many Star Wars movies coming out in recent years but hey, there have been far more Marvel movies and they continue to rake in the big bucks.

There is no Star Wars fatigue. If JJ Abrams' upcoming installment of Star Wars were to be released next month, it would do gangbusters. That's because everyone expects it to be good, perhaps even better than The Force Awakens, which did fantastically well domestically in the US and abroad.

Bad press and bad word of mouth buzz probably did the movie in. The most common criticism of the movie is that it's so safe and predictable. There were no major reveals, no big plot twists and no major insights in the character's background or psyche. It was just a pretty run-of-the-mill space action movie.

I think it didn't help at all that the lead actor doesn't look, sound or act like Harrison Ford. Joseph Gordon-Levitt doesn't look anything like Bruce Willis but he managed to sound like him and adopt his mannerisms really well in the movie Looper where he plays a young version of the Willis character. This was something he worked really hard on. Says Levitt:

I studied him, and watched his movies, and ripped the audio off of his movies, so I could listen to them on repeat. He even recorded some of my voice-over monologues [from Looper] and sent me that recording, so I could hear what it would sound like in his voice. And then just getting to know him and spending time with him and letting it seep in. It's a really, really fascinating way to become a character. That's always my favorite thing, is to transform, become somebody else. If I see a moment that reminds me of myself I always feel like I messed that up.

Disney should have gotten Anthony Ingruber to play the role. Check him out in the video below. He IS a young Harrison Ford.

And it's not like he's some inexperienced actor. In fact, he played a younger version of a Harrison Ford character in the movie Age of Adaline.

The special effects were fine and the actions scenes were okay but just not that thrilling. It could be because we know that Han Solo is never in any real danger because he obviously made it to A New Hope (the original Star Wars movie).

I really had expected more from Ron Howard, who is a fine director. And it was written by Lawrence Kasdan, a fine writer. It's too bad they decided to play it so safe and offered no real surprises other than a cameo by a notorious character from a previous movie. Besides that, everything was really by the numbers.

More than one critic has called the movie inconsequential. Which is an apt description. It's an okay action movie but it doesn't really add much to the Star Wars canon.

As a Star Wars fan, I hope Disney continues to try to come up with more Star Wars movies and spin-offs. I love Star Wars and there's no fatigue on my part. Give me three Star Wars movies a year. If the movies are good, I wanna watch them!

Who wants to join a multi-racial UMNO?

Who wants to join a multi-racial UMNO?

A multi-racial UMNO is being mooted a very natural question to ask is who would want to join UMNO these days (whether it remains Malay-based or multi-racial).

It's very obvious from the results of GE14 that even many Malays have abandoned UMNO. Its message that the Malays need UMNO to protect their interests no longer resonates with modern Malays who feel they are perfectly capable of defending their own interests.

As for non-Malays, if they abandoned MCA, MIC and Gerakan precisely because they felt that these component parties were too subservient to UMNO, why in the world would they want to join UMNO itself?

For the sake of discussion let's say UMNO/BN really transforms itself into one big multi-racial party. What can it offer to the electorate that's better than Pakatan?

Can UMNO/BN claim to want to abolish repressive laws? Can it say it wants to free the press and repeal the Printing Presses and Publications Act? Can it say it wants open tenders for government projects? Can it say it wants to thoroughly investigate 1MDB?

The answer to all these question is no. But even if it says yes, it is just agreeing to do what Pakatan is already busy working towards achieving. Why would any conscientious voter opt for a party that was responsible for all these things in the first place when there is a party already working towards fixing things?

The simple question that UMNO/BN has to ask itself is what can it offer that is better than anything Pakatan has to offer? The answer is nothing.

3 possible outcomes for the Perlis constitutional crisis

Hard to see him and his colleagues triumphing. 

Just when you thought the Perlis situation is about to be resolved, you get news that it's far from over. One of three things can happen to break the impasse:

i) BN reps agree to accept the ruler's choice of MB
ii) The ruler agrees to Perlis BN's choice of MB
iii) Snap polls

Outcome 1: BN reps concede
Let's look at all three potential outcomes in detail, starting with BN reps agreeing to the ruler's choice of MB. This, you would think, is the most likely outcome of all. After spending years setting itself up as the defender of the royalty, it is hypocritical for UMNO reps to now defy the royalty. Besides, at the national level, UMNO's top leaders Zahid and Hishammuddin both want the Perlis reps to defer to the royalty. It is only Shahidan who is refusing to give in. You would think his decision can be over-ridden by the national leadership.

People who hate BN/UMNO want to see this happen because they like to see UMNO on the losing end of things. They like to see UMNO humbled. But be careful what you wish for. This outcome can set a negative precedence. What if this exact situation were to happen in a Pakatan-controlled state? Let's say Pakatan were to win a 2/3rds majority control over a particular state and nominates a particular person to be its MB and the royalty rejects it. Instead, the ruler picks someone who actually doesn't have the support of any of the other reps. Would that be an acceptable situation?

Outcome 2: The ruler concedes
It's hard to see this happening as the ruler has the upper hand. As Hishammuddin has noted, the public is watching very carefully how UMNO is behaving. Defying the ruler doesn't make it look good in the eyes of its political base.

No doubt that during his time Dr M battled the rulers. So did Anwar. Neither was seen as pro-royalty and in fact did what they could to curb their powers. This all began to change under Pak Lah and even more so under Najib, which is why you have seen in recent years a lot more activism among the royal households in the country.

Technically, in a constitutional monarchy, the ruler doesn't have the discretion to choose whom he prefers to be the MB of the state. He has to accept the one who commands the support and confidence of the majority of the state reps. But in practice, especially in recent years, the ruler is generally able to get his way. This could very well happen in Perlis as UMNO, at the national level, seems keen to concede and move on. As such it is hard to imagine the ruler conceding. He knows the longer this thing drags on, the worse it looks for UMNO.

Outcome 3: Snap polls are held
This is the worst of all possible situations for UMNO. This is also the outcome most Pakatan supporters and BN-haters want to see happen because the general perception is that with the benefit of hindsight, the voters in Perlis would have a change of heart and vote Pakatan into power instead.

UMNO will do all it can to avoid this but if the impasse persists and the MB fails to get the support of his own party at the state level, this might be the only option to resolve the issue. But what if Pakatan wins control over the state and ruler again doesn't accept its choice of MB?

Conclusion
The chances of Perlis UMNO conceding is high. The impasse looks bad for UMNO and they have bigger problems to deal with at the National level. The top leadership will impress upon the state reps to give in. Some people might take joy in seeing UMNO losing out but in this case, it's actually not good for democracy.

The chances of the ruler giving in is very low. He doesn't have to. Is UMNO going to challenge him in court? Close to impossible.

The chances of snap polls is even. There is a possibility and it's actually the best one Pakatan supporters can hope for. If it happens, there's a fair chance (some would even say likely) that Pakatan will control the state. The ruler will also probably want to avoid another constitutional crisis, so there probably won't be a repeat of what's happening right now. 

There should be no ambiguity about the role of a constitutional monarch

Let's be clear about what a constitutional monarchy is all about.

DAP's Ngeh Koo Ham has waded into the Perlis constitutional crisis issue by stating that the Raja of Perlis should follow the Agong's example in handling the impasse over who the MB of Perlis should be.

It's been widely reported that the Agong had wanted Wan Azizah to be the prime minister but when Pakatan Harapan leaders made it clear that it was Dr M whom they wanted to be the PM, he agreed to it (this despite the fact that he doesn't particularly like Dr M).

Ngeh's views on the matter are largely in line with the viewpoints of many constitutional experts who say the royalty actually does not have discretion when it comes to appointing an MB or a PM.

Whether Ngeh should have made his comments now is a different question. When BN is involved in internecine warfare, it probably makes sense to let them fight it out without any interference. But then again, since this issue is in the news perhaps it is a good time to put the spotlight on it. The role of the constitutional monarchy has been blurry during the Pak Lah/Najib years. Now, it's time to clear it up.

Yes, it is the Sultan who appoints the MB and the Agong who appoints the PM. But in a constitutional monarchy this is supposed to be largely a ceremonial role. The Sultan and the Agong aren't supposed to be able to choose whoever they want. The person has to be the one who commands the support of the majority of the elected reps.

It's the royalty's role to determine who that person is. Perhaps he can do that by speaking to the reps in person or have them produce sworn documents that they support a certain person. Perhaps in this day and age, they might even be able to do this via e-mail or Whatsapp. But whatever the case, he can't simply choose whoever he likes.

During the Mahathir years (first time around), the royalty had been stung after two battle royales with Dr M where he curtailed their powers. So, they were not very activist after that. This all started to change when Pak Lah took over and really became more pronounced during Najib's time.

BN's general stance on the matter was that the royalty did indeed have discretion over such appointments. They took this stance because they believed in general, the royalty was more in favor of the government than the opposition. Thus there would be no clashes with BN or even if there were, they could be resolved amicably.

There were clashes with Pakatan though. It happened in Perak and later in Selangor, where Pakatan had wanted Wan Azizah to be the MB but the Sultan preferred Azmin Ali. In the end, Pakatan gave in, not willing to engage in a constitutional battle with the Sultan.

It was probably the pragmatic thing to do given that Pakatan was in the opposition at the federal level and had little power. Now that Pakatan is in power it's a different story. As mentioned earlier, they got the person they wanted for PM.

One of the things Pakatan should do as they proceed to reform many institutions in this country is to remove any ambiguity about royal discretion when it comes to appointing the MB and the PM. BN's intentional vagueness on this issue needs to become a thing of the past. Our democracy would be be better off with clarity than vagueness, especially on such an important issue as this.

Entry bans for East Malaysia need to end

East Malaysian states need to stop the practice of barring certain individuals from Peninsula Malaysia from entering.

Sabah and Sarawak are Malaysian states but they are unique in that they have autonomy over their immigration affairs as prescribed in the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63). That means they can stop Malaysian citizens from the peninsula from entering their states and they have done so, especially with former opposition (now government) politicians and activists.

Suhakam has rightly called for this practice to stop:

"Suhakam takes the position that no state in Malaysia should any longer ban Malaysian citizens from entry even if there are constitutional powers (to do so) as such actions are a remnant of past repressive practices."

It's really ridiculous that any citizen of this country might be restricted from visiting another state within the country. Just on the face of it, it sounds like a terrible policy. Suhakam is right. It needs to be done away with.

What's Najib's game plan?

Is he just venting or is there some game plan here?

Far from laying low, Najib has been hitting out at the Pakatan government. Is he just venting or is there some strategy at play here?

It's unlikely that he's just venting. Although he might look up to Donald Trump, his temperament is nothing like the Donald. He's not know to vent on Twitter. If anything, he tends to keep his views close to his chest. Now, he's suddenly so expressive. What's happening here?



It must be some calculated strategy but what that strategy could be is beyond me. Antagonizing the Pakatan government doesn't seem like a good idea especially when they are in the midst of investigating you. But then again, he might have concluded that the government plans to prosecute him to the full extent that they can anyway, so he's got nothing to lose in pissing them off.

Still, what's the point? Perhaps he's trying to win over public opinion. Good luck with that though. His credibility is shot. It doesn't matter how articulate he is. People just think about the massive amount of money, handbags and jewellery taken out of the Pavilion residence and all his words will fall on deaf ears.

The amount of money involved in the 1MDB scandal makes the Pavilion haul look like chump change but most people find the 1MDB issue confusing. It's hard to comprehend such complex financial shenanigans. But people understand dollar bills, handbags, watches and jewellery.

People also know that even the Prime Minister of a country doesn't make that much money. People know that his father, Tun Razak, was not a wealthy man. People also know that nobody donates money to a party by giving cash to a person to keep in a private apartment.

Donald Trump tells outrageous lies because he knows what he says plays well to his base, which is about close to 40% of the electorate in the US. What's Najib's base? Pekan? The rest of the country is just waiting for the outcome of the investigations.