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| Hard to see him and his colleagues triumphing. |
Just when you thought the Perlis situation is about to be resolved, you get news that it's far from over. One of three things can happen to break the impasse:
i) BN reps agree to accept the ruler's choice of MB
ii) The ruler agrees to Perlis BN's choice of MB
iii) Snap polls
Outcome 1: BN reps concede
Let's look at all three potential outcomes in detail, starting with BN reps agreeing to the ruler's choice of MB. This, you would think, is the most likely outcome of all. After spending years setting itself up as the defender of the royalty, it is hypocritical for UMNO reps to now defy the royalty. Besides, at the national level, UMNO's top leaders Zahid and Hishammuddin both want the Perlis reps to defer to the royalty. It is only Shahidan who is refusing to give in. You would think his decision can be over-ridden by the national leadership.
People who hate BN/UMNO want to see this happen because they like to see UMNO on the losing end of things. They like to see UMNO humbled. But be careful what you wish for. This outcome can set a negative precedence. What if this exact situation were to happen in a Pakatan-controlled state? Let's say Pakatan were to win a 2/3rds majority control over a particular state and nominates a particular person to be its MB and the royalty rejects it. Instead, the ruler picks someone who actually doesn't have the support of any of the other reps. Would that be an acceptable situation?
Outcome 2: The ruler concedes
It's hard to see this happening as the ruler has the upper hand. As Hishammuddin has noted, the public is watching very carefully how UMNO is behaving. Defying the ruler doesn't make it look good in the eyes of its political base.
No doubt that during his time Dr M battled the rulers. So did Anwar. Neither was seen as pro-royalty and in fact did what they could to curb their powers. This all began to change under Pak Lah and even more so under Najib, which is why you have seen in recent years a lot more activism among the royal households in the country.
Technically, in a constitutional monarchy, the ruler doesn't have the discretion to choose whom he prefers to be the MB of the state. He has to accept the one who commands the support and confidence of the majority of the state reps. But in practice, especially in recent years, the ruler is generally able to get his way. This could very well happen in Perlis as UMNO, at the national level, seems keen to concede and move on. As such it is hard to imagine the ruler conceding. He knows the longer this thing drags on, the worse it looks for UMNO.
Outcome 3: Snap polls are held
This is the worst of all possible situations for UMNO. This is also the outcome most Pakatan supporters and BN-haters want to see happen because the general perception is that with the benefit of hindsight, the voters in Perlis would have a change of heart and vote Pakatan into power instead.
UMNO will do all it can to avoid this but if the impasse persists and the MB fails to get the support of his own party at the state level, this might be the only option to resolve the issue. But what if Pakatan wins control over the state and ruler again doesn't accept its choice of MB?
Conclusion
The chances of Perlis UMNO conceding is high. The impasse looks bad for UMNO and they have bigger problems to deal with at the National level. The top leadership will impress upon the state reps to give in. Some people might take joy in seeing UMNO losing out but in this case, it's actually not good for democracy.
The chances of the ruler giving in is very low. He doesn't have to. Is UMNO going to challenge him in court? Close to impossible.
The chances of snap polls is even. There is a possibility and it's actually the best one Pakatan supporters can hope for. If it happens, there's a fair chance (some would even say likely) that Pakatan will control the state. The ruler will also probably want to avoid another constitutional crisis, so there probably won't be a repeat of what's happening right now.
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