What's Mahathir up to?

What is this wily master politician up to?

It's hard to tell what Dr M is up to these days. The simplistic view is that he is trying to bolster Bersatu's numbers by taking in former UMNO members.

Bersatu currently has 16 MPs while DAP has 42 and PKR 50. If as many as say 40 UMNO members were to join Bersatu, suddenly it would be the biggest component party in Pakatan Harapan.

Then, it would have the moral authority to call the shots in Pakatan, presumably. Right now, the only reason Bersatu has a disproportionate say in Pakatan matters is Dr M's gravitas and his critical role in helping Pakatan win GE14.

Pakatan components had agreed that he would be at the helm for around two years before handing it over to Anwar so it is only natural they will defer to him a bit. Pakatan could also use a steady, experienced hand to guide them through this tumultuous and unprecedented transition period. Plus, people want him around because they feel he -- more so than Anwar -- will see through the prosecution of all the corrupt politicians from the previous government.

All these factors have led to everyone giving Mahathir a lot of leeway. But his seeming willingness -- keeness even -- of taking in UMNO refugees has made a lot of people uneasy.

Having observed Mahathir since the mid-90s, I agree with the view that he is the master tactician when it comes to politics. As such I don't think he's simply trying to bolster Bersatu's members. He knows full well there are a lot of bad apples in UMNO. There may be some good ones like Mustapa Mohamed but those are few and far in between. Most of them supported Najib even when the 1MDB scandal broke wide open. Most of them poured scorn on Pakatan component parties when they thought that BN was undefeatable. And now they want to join Pakatan? Talk about opportunism.

I can't believe that Dr M doesn't see all this. So, what is he up to?

Despite him saying he wants a strong opposition, what's clear is Dr M wants to destroy UMNO. Perhaps by giving the impression that Bersatu is keen to take on ex-UMNO guys, this will encourage more to abandon the mother ship. But in the end, he will take on only a few. Then he would really have the last laugh.

Perhaps it's a bit cruel to give UMNO refugees some glimmer of hope of getting back into the government only to deny them that in the end. But I don't think Dr M is above having a bit of cruel fun at the expense of UMNO guys.

The other question on everybody's mind is whether he will stick to his promise of handing over the reigns to Anwar after about two years in office. On occasions he states clearly that he will stick to his promise. On other occasions he will equivocate, saying things like he will stay on as long as people want him and that Anwar can become the PM if people want him.

Saying things like that only make people wonder how committed he is to passing the baton to Anwar. But it's really hard to see how he can do otherwise. Even if Bersatu were to have say 56 members (the current 16 + the 40 supposed UMNO MPs who could cross over), PKR + DAP + Amanah = 50 + 42 + 11 = 103. That bloc has the majority and that block wants Anwar as PM.

Let's imagine a worst case scenario where things come to a head and Bersatu actually leaves Pakatan. And let's say for the sake of discussion that Warisan also no longer aligns with Pakatan out of solidarity with Bersatu. That would result in Pakatan having less than the 112 seats it needs to form the government (short by 9 seats). But one could easily imagine Anwar and gang getting nine crossovers from somewhere (most likely Sabah and perhaps a few from Sarawak).

In contrast what could Bersatu do? Having absorbed most of UMNO's lawmakers to bolster its numbers to 56, who else could he get to join him? MCA? MIC. Okay, another two or three seats. Who else? Some from Sabah and Sarawak, perhaps. Still won't get him up to 112 seats.

So, there is no way Bersatu can have the upper hand. In collaborating with Pakatan Rakyat to form Pakatan Harapan, Dr M had made a deal that allowed him to oust Najib but it does not allow him to lord over Pakatan the way he did BN. He simply does not have the numbers, with or without UMNO refugees.

The best that Dr M can hope for, given his age and the circumstances that he's in, is for UMNO to be destroyed, for corrupted politicians to be prosecuted and for his legacy to be enhanced by his amazing second act in Malaysian politics. His role in helping to topple Najib should not be underestimated. He played a crucial role there and history will remember him for that.

If he doesn't ruffle too many feathers in Pakatan he might even get his third national car although it would have to be largely a private sector initiative. He might also get some assurance that Bersatu MPs will get a decent number of Cabinet positions in future administrations. That's if he plays nice with the rest of Pakatan. But if he tries to have everything his way, he will for the first time fail badly and destroy any hope of legacy rehabilitation. I'm pretty sure Dr M knows that.