PKR, DAP & Amanah need to change their strategy

Harapan got trounced in Tanjung Piai. This was a strong rebuke by the rakyat who wanted to send Harapan a clear message to get its act together and to start fulfilling its promises. It's also, as Syed Husin Ali articulated, a referendum on Dr M's leadership.

It's always hard to figure out what's going on in Dr M's mind. He likes to keep people guessing on what's he got in mind when he does things like meeting up with opposition lawmakers to discuss things that are not ultimately revealed. Or when he sends out signals that he favours Azmin over Anwar. Or when he supports the inclusion of khat in the BM syllabus etc, etc, etc. Why he does such things, nobody knows

But there are a few things we do know about Dr M, because he is remarkably transparent about them:
a) He doesn't believe the old system, for which he was a principal architect, was flawed. He believes that Najib corrupted the system, which is why all the bad things happened. To Dr M, it wasn't the system that was at fault. It was Najib. What Dr M doesn't realize (or more like, refuses to accept) is that Najib was able to do what he did precisely because the system set up by Dr was remarkably susceptible to manipulation. Because he doesn't recognize and accept this fact, he doesn't really want to fix it. And that's why reforms are so slow in coming.

b) He thinks that UMNO hegemony was the right formula for governing this country. He doesn't like UMNO now because it had supported Najib. But he liked how UMNO was the BIG brother in BN and how the other component parties basically kowtowed to it. He laments the fact that his current party Bersatu is not in that position within Harapan. It's not as big as PKR. Heck, it's not even as big as DAP (and that's with defections from UMNO). That's why he called or Malay opposition lawmakers to all defect to his party. If the majority of them had actually done that, Bersatu would then indeed become the new UMNO within Harapan.

The slow pace of reforms and the old "ketuanan Melayu" approach to politics has turned off many moderate and progressive Malaysians. However, as long as Dr M is in power, this situation will not change because he doesn't want it to change.

There is no guarantee that Anwar would be a successful leader but at least we know he would do more to hasten reforms than Dr M. Would Anwar do enough to satisfy civil society and those who voted for change via Harapan? Maybe, maybe not. But we can be sure he would do more (or at least try to do more) than Dr M in that regard.

We also know that Anwar does not believe that the "ketuanan Melayu" concept is the right approach going forward. His party, unlike Bersatu, is a multi-racial party. He has also on more than one occasion called for the introduction of needs-based affirmative action policies.

Most people would agree that upon Harapan's surprise victory in GE14, Dr M was the right person to lead the country. He was the steady hand needed to steer the country after the shock results of the election. Many people also believed he would make sure that the perpetrators of the 1MDB scandal would be prosecuted to the full extent of the law.

Those two reasons alone led many people to support the idea of Dr M leading the country again. But they wanted it for only two years. Dr M's acolytes like to assert that the actual date of the transition was never made explicitly clear prior to the election. While that may be the case, it also cannot be denied that the notion of "two years" was widely agreed upon and this was clear to everyone who voted for Harapan. So it's highly disingenuous for Dr M's supporters to suggest that there is no agreed time-frame for Dr M to step down.

Any goodwill that Dr M earned for helping to oust Najib has been all spent by now and Dr M should not overstay his welcome. He was promised two years and he agreed to two year, so he should stick to two years. He should make the specific date of the handover public.

That would go a long way towards mitigating public disappointment with Harapan and give its supporters renewed hope. Otherwise, people will expect more of the same. And the folks at Tanjung Piai made clear that more of the same is not what they want. 

Yet, nobody among the Harapan leadership is nudging him towards setting a firm date for the handover because they are afraid of upsetting him. The Harapan component party leaders' strategy is pretty straightforward and simple: Don't piss off Dr M.

They believe that if they do not rock the boat and let him have his way for two years, he will honor his pledge and let Anwar take over. Of course they know he might not stick to his promise but they are more willing to take that chance than to risk upsetting him.

Why? Because Dr M is unpredictable. Who knows what he might do if he is upset (like perhaps break up Harapan?). The mere potential of that has paralyzed the rest of Harapan with fear.

So, everybody walks on eggshells. And what has that achieved so far?
a) Unfulfilled promises
b) A whole bunch of own goals 
c) Component parties that look timid
d) No clear timeline for the transition

In short, the "Don't piss off Dr M" approach has been a disastrous strategy. The folks at PKR, DAP and Amanah have got to start insisting on policies and measures that are more in line with what Harapan stood for before the election. Otherwise things are just going to get from bad to worse for Harapan.

The choice is now very clear

It's been a pretty bad year for Pakatan Harapan. Unfulfilled promises and lots of internecine bickering has resulted in many people losing hope in PH. Some have even begun speculating whether BN can make a comeback.

I've always believed this was impossible, not because PH is so good but because BN is that bad. You may be frustrated and disappointed with PH for a variety of justifiable reasons but can you bring yourself to actually vote for BN? The answer for most people is no.

Because of that reason alone, BN has little to negligible chance of making a comeback. But this week, BN really sealed its fate and doomed itself to oblivion for a few generations to come because of its pact with PAS.

That pact now has a total of 58 seats in Parliament of which 1 is from MCA and 1 from MIC. To call this a predominantly Malay coalition would be the understatement of the year. For all intents and purposes, this is an All-Malay coalition.

Now the choice is clear for the electorate: Multiracial coalition vs All-Malay coalition. Which one do you want to run the country?

Is Dr M right?

Dr M seems intent on uniting Malays under one political party -- Bersatu -- to the extent that he invited members of PAS and UMNO to join his party.

Why is he doing this? The simplistic explanation is that he wants to replicate UMNO within PH, with Bersatu being the new UMNO. He wants Bersatu to play the big brother role.

That certainly could be a reason but there could be another (arguably more critical) explanation for his fixation with building up mega-Malay party.

Perhaps Dr M is convinced that PH cannot win future elections unless it adopts the BN formula of a dominant Malay party in charge of the coalition.

Could he be right? If he is, that means the rest of PH must be wrong because the other component parties are emphasizing a multi-racial approach.

The reason Dr M gave for making Bersatu a Malay-only party was that this was necessary to make Malays feel comfortable with voting for PH in GE14.

There is probably some truth in that but how much? What percentage of the Malay electorate actually cared whether there was a Malay-only party in PH?

The other parties in PH believe the way forward is to adopt a multi-racial approach. That is one of the reasons Anwar has been calling for a needs-based approach to affirmative action rather than the race-based one preferred by Dr M.

When Dr M was in BN, his approach to combating PAS was to out-Islam PAS. This was why he declared Malaysia an Islamic state. Dr M seems to be going back to the same playbook and trying to out-Islam PAS and out-Malay UMNO.

This would explain his bizarre support for Zakir Naik to remain in Malaysia and his approval for the education ministry to introduce khat as part of the BM syllabus.

Both these issues are incredibly divisive but he was willing to put the country through that because he thinks this will win Bersatu (and by extension, PH) Malay support.

Dr M is a master politician. That can't be denied. But even experts make mistakes and Dr M is wrong if he thinks becoming more like BN is the way to win future elections.

People who voted for PH in GE14 did so because they were sick of BN. The last thing these folks want is for BN to be replaced with another BN-like entity.

"BN minus 1MBD" is not what people are clamoring for. What people want is a PH with the courage of its convictions. They want to see a change in the way things are done. They want reforms.

It's unrealistic to expect Dr M to embrace this new approach favored by the other PH parties. As such, the only way PH can fully go on full reform mode is for Dr M to eventually retire and be replaced by Anwar.

There's no guarantee that Anwar will be able to deliver on all the promises PH had given prior to GE14. Certain things that require a lot of money to fulfill (e.g. no more highway tolls) may simply be unachievable. But there are many promises that can be fulfilled that don't require huge funds or a 2/3rds majority in parliament. All it takes is political will.

Expecting Dr M to become a committed reformist may be too much to ask of him but it is not too much to expect him to pass the baton to Anwar after two years in power. In fact, it's something that should be demanded because that is what the electorate voted for.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst

There are many things to be frustrated about with Pakatan Harapan -- not because it's as bad as BN, because it clearly isn't -- but because so much more was expected of it.

For some people, it's bread and butter issues. Prices of goods haven't really dropped, tolls still exist, etc. But for many it's far beyond that.

There doesn't seem to be any urgency in looking into judicial misconduct or the Teoh Beng Hock, Altantunya and Pastor Koh cases.

Repressive laws are still on the books. People are still getting charged with sedition and other laws for "crimes" such as writing something insulting on social media.

Then, you've got these own goals like the khat issue and the Zakir Naik issue. No doubt the introduction of khat was originally a BN idea and it was also BN that gave Naik PR status. But why continue with BN policies?

There's also Lynas and the third National Car. The list goes on.

The core reason why many of these BN-like things are happening is that Dr M is in charge and he doesn't really want to change all that many things. You won't find any interviews he's done where he admitted there was something wrong or rotten about the old system. He blamed it on Najib.

No doubt Najib had made full use of the system to turn Malaysia into a kleptocracy but he was able to do so precisely because of the flaws in the old system. That is why it is so crucial that reforms are done, so that something like this can never happen again. But such reforms won't happen under Dr M.

I think most people would agree that Dr M was a suitable steady hand that the nation needed when there was a change in government after GE14. We were in uncharted territory. A change in government had never happened before in Malaysia's history. Having someone as experienced as Dr M, who ran the country for more than two decades, was very reassuring.

It started off well, with many of his previously fiercest opponents-turned-allies declaring that Dr M had changed, that he believed in consensus building, etc. But little more than a year after taking office, it's very obvious that Dr M is going back to his old ways.

Is there any doubt that if it were entirely up to PKR, DAP and Amanah, that many of those BN-like policies described above would not have happened? These things are happening because the leaders of the other component parties have all decided to not rock the boat, lest Dr M gets really upset and decides to renege on his promise to hand over the reigns of the country to Anwar.

Rather than take that risk, they have decided to play it conservatively and defer to Dr M. This might prove to be the right strategy. Or it might not. With Dr M, it's hard to tell. He hasn't, for example, committed to any specific deadline for handing over the keys of the country to Anwar. And this has fueled speculation that something is up.

Given that the other component parties in PH have decided to adopt the appeasement strategy, the natural question to ask is have they got a Plan B, in case Dr M does not proceed with what has been agreed. What if two years have gone by and there's still no sign of Dr M preparing to leave. Do they then just bear with it for yet another year, since Dr M has said he might stay as long as three years?

And if they do that, do they then insist on a deadline for Year 3 or will they allow him to continue to keep the handover date vague? What if the end of the third year is approaching and there are still no signs of a handover, do they have Plan C?

It's easy to be an armchair quarterback and say the other PH parties should crack down on Dr M now and insist that he does things this way or that way. They've obviously weighed the pros and cons of appeasement and have decided that that was the best way to go. Keep Dr M happy and hope that he will keep to his promise. In the end, Dr M might just do that and their strategy will prove to be right.

With PH parties, the old maxim: "Hope for the best, prepare for the worst" is something they should heed.

Well, they clearly are hoping for the best but are they prepared for the worst? It would only be prudent if they already had Plan B in place (what happens if he doesn't hand over power after two years?) and even Plan C in place (what happens if the end of year three is approaching and still no indication of him stepping down?). To not have Plans B and C in place would be really unwise and even a dereliction of duty.

Questions about the Lynas decision

The outcome was not surprising. Indications were already there that the Cabinet would allow Lynas to continue operations.

According to Mkini, at least 13 ministers had in 2012 signed a pledge to scrap Lynas. Yet, Syed Saddiq claims the decision to allow Lynas to continue operations was a collective Cabinet decision.

Just to be clear that what he means by "collective Cabinet decision" was that all agreed to it, he said: "This is the cabinet's decision, how can the cabinet decision come out with people (who) don't agree?"

So, if what Syed Saddiq says is true, the 13 ministers have a lot of answering to do. Why did they change their minds?

Did they agree grudgingly because Dr M wanted it? Was it a case where some ministers actually objected but were outvoted and then agreed to go with the majority? If so, who among the 13 actually raised objections? Or were they all readily agreeable?

Once can't help but speculate, had Anwar been the PM instead, what would the stance of the 13 be? Would they have still voted for allowing Lynas to continue operations or would they have voted for it to shut it down instead?

Such imponderables!

How PH can stabilize

When Pakatan Harapan won GE14, here was the breakdown of seats won:

PKR: 47
DAP: 42
Bersatu: 13
Amanah: 11
Warisan: 8

Since then, there have been some defections from the other side and now the composition is:

PKR: 50
DAP: 42
Bersatu: 26
Amanah: 11
Warisan: 9

As you can see, Bersatu has grown the most, doubling its seats to 26. Even so, that's still very few compared to PKR and DAP, who collectively have 92 MPs. Yet, it is Dr M of Bersatu who is in the driver's seat.

This was all part of the agreement that the various component parties made prior to GE14. So when PH unexpectedly won in GE14, Dr M became the PM despite his party having very few MPs. A deal is a deal, so they stuck with it.

What was also decided was that Dr M would only be an interim PM and that Anwar would take over after about two years. Dr M has said he would keep his promise but his actions so far have only served to create doubts and uncertainty about his willingness to hand over power to Anwar. He seems to favor Anwar's once trusty lieutenant, Azmin Ali.

There is now some doubts about whether Dr M will actually relinquish power when the time comes. Or will he find some excuse to either stay on or pass the baton to Azmin instead? This kind of uncertainty is not good for the country and does not bode well for PH if it carries on for much longer.

Stability could come in two forms. One is that Dr M actually keeps his promise and steps down in a year or so, after which he would truly retire from politics. Without him at the helm, Bersatu will no longer be the unstable element that is rocking PH. Nobody in Bersatu is as cunning as Dr M is and frankly, Bersatu's influence will become more in line with the number of MPs it actually has (which is not many).

The other possibility, if either Dr M stays the full term or someone else of his choosing takes over, is for the other PH component parties to win enough seats in GE15 to form the government without Bersatu's MPs.

That doesn't mean PH doesn't welcome Bersatu in the coalition anymore. It just doesn't need Bersatu to form the government. In such a situation, Bersatu would no longer be in any position to muscle its way around. And PH would be more stable.

Let's face it, the other component parties' alliance with Bersatu was a marriage of convenience, nothing else. That is why the marriage is so rocky. When the other component parties don't need Bersatu anymore, that's when the PH coalition can finally have some semblance of steadiness.

Glass half full

There are a lot of things to be disappointed about regarding Pakatan Harapan. Many things they promised have not been fulfilled and some policies are downright BN-ish. At the same time we have to acknowledge some good things.

Certain appointments, especially that of Elections Commission Chairman, the Attorney General, the MACC Chief and the Chief Justice all seem to be good choices.

The government and the ministers are generally perceived to be cleaner. The government also seems to be more responsive to criticism and feedback from the public compared to BN (granted, this is a very low bar, using BN as a benchmark).

On the whole, we are much, much better off now than we were before GE14. But of course we want more. We want things to be even better. Unfortunately, many of the reforms we are looking for may have to wait until there is a change in PM because the current one is not about reform. Let's just hope there's a smooth transition in a year or two.

PH's saving grace

Right now things are looking quite bleak for Pakatan Harapan, with component parties constantly bickering while many promises remain unfulfilled. To make it worse, Dr M has insisted on some policies that seem to be antithetical to what PH is all about.

Fortunately for PH, there are several factors it's got going for it:

a) The next general election is still some time away (slightly less than 4 more years to go). People have short memories. If PH can turn things around before GE15, and the economy is in good shape, all this turmoil will be forgotten.

b) As chaotic as PH is, the opposition (BN + PAS) is in an even bigger mess. Plus BN/UMNO now has got no money with its bank accounts frozen. And being in the opposition does not exactly endear them to political donors.

c) There might be some protest votes but most people who voted for PH are not going to suddenly vote for BN just because they are disappointed with PH. As disappointing as PH may be, it's still a gazillion times better than BN. Very few unhappy PH supporters would be able to bring themselves to vote the kleptocrats back into power just to spite PH. It just won't happen.

PH's biggest challenge is to avoid imploding. PKR, in particular looks dangerously like it could splinter. And Dr M is so unpredictable. With him, the maxim: "There are no permanent friends or permanent enemies, only permanent interests" really applies. So, a PH implosion is not completely out of the question. But if PH can avoid imploding, it should be able to win GE15, what with BN being in such bad shape.

DAP leaders doing a horrible job of spinning

In his article, DAP facing its worst crisis since GE14, Liew Chin Tong unconvincingly says:

The fact is that the Harapan government is a coalition government. No party has absolute power. Most things have still got to go back to the cabinet and the Pakatan Harapan presidential council for endorsement and that is how it should be.

He is right that the Harapan government is a coalition government but it does seem like Dr M wields quite a lot (if not absolute) power. And it doesn't seem like a lot of things go back to the cabinet or the Pakatan Harapan council for endorsement (though he is right in saying that's how it should be).

In his article, Wrong for Dr M to use 'racist' label, but Dong Zong not in the right either, Lim Kit Siang says:

In actual fact, however, the khat subject controversy was a legacy of the former government, as the final decision on the new textbooks for Chinese/Tamil primary schools to introduce the khat subject for Standard Four pupils in 2020 was made by the Education Ministry Curriculum Committee chaired by the then education minister and the then two deputy education ministers in a meeting on Sept. 30, 2015.

Well, it's now 2019 and Pakatan Harapan is the government, not BN. Why can't PH change that decision? The answer of course is that it can.

It seems every attempt by DAP leaders to spin the criticism it has been receiving from the non-Malay community has only made the situation worse.

So what should they do? They need to grow a spine and state their true stance on the matter, instead of trying to justify what Dr M has been doing lately, which is making unilateral decisions that are contrary to what the majority of Pakatan supporter want and expect.

If they don't start to do that soon, they will suffer the fate of MCA, which lost the confidence of the Chinese community.

The two options PH parties have

It's clear by now that Pakatan Harapan, for all intents and purposes, is the Mahathir party. Just like how Trump has taken over the Republican party, Dr M has taken over PH.

Lynas extension, slow pace of investigation over Teoh Beng Hock and Pastor Koh cases, protection for Zakir Naik, introducing khat into the BM syllabus, establishing a third national car, Sedition Act still intact. All these things have Mahathir written all over them.

Do you think these are the kinds of things the other PH parties, especially DAP and PKR would want? Yet, nobody speaks out against them. Everybody's walking on eggshells for fear of upsetting Dr M.

But there is a price to be paid. The general public, and most notably the ones who voted for PH, notice what's going on. This is not what they voted for. Yet, the other PH parties are letting Dr M get his way, as if Bersatu were the dominant party like UMNO was in BN.

It is not. It is a mosquito party in comparison to DAP or PKR. And if you were to combine DAP and PKR, they would dwarf Bersatu. Yet, they all act as if Dr M's party controlled the majority.

DAP, in particular, has received the brunt of the backlash but PKR will get its share of criticism too if this situation continues. The longer they kowtow to Dr M, the bolder he gets when it comes to doing things his way.

So, DAP, PKR, Amanah and Warisan have to decide one of two options:
a) Collectively insist that Dr M stops making unilateral decisions and that any major policy must be discussed and agreed by the Presidential Council.
b) Continue to kowtow to him for the next year or so until such time he steps down (which he has said he would do).

Option (a) has its risk. It might upset Dr M enough for him to do something rash like break up the coalition, although that's unlikely.

Option (b) seems to be what all of them are adopting but it's an even riskier approach. Firstly, as mentioned earlier, this will only embolden Dr M to do whatever the heck he wants. Secondly, as time drags on, doing whatever he wants could very well include deciding to stay on for the full term.

Do they want to wait until there's a full-blown crisis within the coalition before they confront Dr M? There is a problem with his leadership style, which seems to have reverted back to him UMNO/BN approach of "my way or the highway". If they don't correct that now, it will probably be a whole lot harder later on.

Mahathirism has taken over Pakatan Harapan

Shortly after Pakatan Harapan took over the federal government, several PH leaders came out to say that Dr M has changed. That he is more consultative and doesn't do things unilaterally.

I have also pointed out that because Bersatu has much fewer MPs than PKR and DAP, it would be impossible for Dr M to have everything his way.

Well, slightly more than a year later we are seeing that Dr M is indeed doing things unilaterally. I was not wrong in talking about the numbers when it came to PH component parties but I didn't anticipate how timid the PH leaders would be.

Introducing khat into the BM syllabus, renewing Lynas' operating licence, having a 3rd national car -- do any of these sound like PH policies? No, they sound like Dr M policies. Yet, the majority of PH leaders remain silent on these matters.

Everyone of them is walking on eggshells, all afraid of upsetting Dr M. Their strategy it seems to be to wait out the two (or three) years that Dr M's supposed to be in power for. After that, when he is out of the scene, they can start to introduce the reforms promised and do the things they promised to do. That's the thinking anyway.

It's a pretty flawed way of thinking. The more they refuse to confront Dr M about his unilateral tendencies, the bolder he gets. At first, he might have thought he needed to care about what PKR or DAP thought about certain policies, especially controversial ones. Now, it doesn't look like he does anymore. And it will only get worse unless they step up and start opposing some of these ideas which are antithetical to what PH stands for.

These other component parties -- PKR, DAP, Amanah and Warisan -- need to let Dr M know that the support they give to him, which allows him to be the PM, can be taken away.

Scoring lots of own-goals

It's bad enough that Pakatan Harapan has been slow in implementing promised reforms. To make matters worse, it's been scoring own goals.

Take for example the whole khat controversy. Why try to implement this controversial measure when there are many more things to take care of and worry about?

Then there is the whole brouhaha about unilateral conversions in Selangor? Why try to do this when it would be over-ruled by the Federal Court?

Dr M is fully capable of stopping all this own-goals but he doesn't seem to be doing it. Why not? Why is he allowing the PH government look like it's in chaos?

Maybe he's got some weird Machiavellian plan that we can't even fathom. We'll just have to wait and see.

Dr M should not exhaust electorate's goodwill

He's nearly spent up all the goodwill he earned from GE14.

Dr M earned himself a tremendous amount of goodwill when he helped the country get rid of a kleptocratic government led by Najib. Nobody thought they could really pull it off but Pakatan Harapan, led by Dr M, performed a miracle and caused a change in government for the first time in our nation's history.

For that, a lot of people were grateful and many, including myself, were willing to forgive him for the transgressions of the past. Yes, the main reason Najib was able to do what he did was thanks to the system established by Dr M. But Dr M helped us get rid of him, so for that we were willing to give him a second chance. A chance to redeem himself.

It was hoped that during the two years he was supposed to be in office (before handing the PM-ship over to Anwar), he would help usher in at least some reforms and more importantly, ensure the prosecution of 1MDB crimes.

One year has gone by while the court case involving Najib is ongoing, and there has been very little progress when it comes to reforms. Repressive laws like the Sedition Act are still in the books. People are still being charged for things they post on social media (as if Malaysians are so easily incited by the silly postings of some agent provocateurs).

It certainly looks like we will have to wait until Anwar becomes PM before we see the major reforms we expected when we voted to boot out the BN government. But will Anwar ever get to become PM?

It's been speculated for some time now that Dr M actually prefers Azmin to take over as PM but recent developments have pushed this notion further, so much so that Malaysiakini has made a point to end every story about Azmin with the statement that it is widely believed that Azmin is preferred. So what has been spoken about in hushed tones is now out in the public.

You have Azmin's faction in PKR saying publicly that they prefer Dr M to stay the whole term, which basically means Anwar doesn't get to become PM. You have some factions in Bersatu saying the same thing, including the education minister, who really has no business saying this. He knows full well what the agreement was before GE14 and he knows just as well that what the electorate voted for was Dr M as interim PM for two years and Anwar to take over. Yet, he goes and rocks the boat further by suggesting Dr M stay the full term.

Dr M of course has plausible deniability because he keeps saying he will keep his promise. He also promised prior to the election not to take in any UMNO frogs. His track record of keeping to his promises is not exactly stellar.

If Dr M wanted to quash all talk of him staying the full term, he could easily do so by publicly denouncing what Azmin's faction are saying about that. He can also instruct his Bersatu members to stop rocking the already shaky boat. But does he do that? No.

Perhaps this is just some mind game he is playing to screw with Anwar's head, to make sure he toes the line and stays a team player. In a way, it's working. You can see Anwar is walking on eggshells, careful not to piss off the old man.

DAP and Amanah are also walking on eggshells with none of its leaders commenting on this topic. Like Anwar, they are just waiting for the first two years to go by. But will the promised transition happen? Increasingly it looks like it won't.

Dr M likes to say two or three years. Why doesn't he give a precise date? He's also fond of saying, when the economy recovers. Who knows how long that will take!

He is purposely playing up the ambiguity, probably because he likes to have everyone walk on eggshells. This way nobody will challenge him on anything, such as the third national car project that nobody wants except him.

Being the crafty politician that he is, he might just surprise everyone and pass the baton to Anwar mid-way through the term (say 2.5 years)? Or, he might not. With Dr M, it's hard to tell.

If it's the former, people can forgive him for doing this a bit late. I think people might be willing to even accept three years instead of two, although this is stretching it a bit. But if he doesn't handover to Anwar after three years, he would have burned all the goodwill he's accumulated for the good deed he did in helping to kick out Najib. There is only so much goodwill to be spent.

In fact, he's been spending that goodwill like it's going out of style, what with the secretive meeting with the Opposition (which happens to be supporting the notion of him staying on as PM for the full term). If anything, the fact that the Opposition wants him for the full term should tell you that it's a bad idea.

I'll be the first to say that after the surprise victory in GE14, PH needed a person like Dr M to be the PM to guide the transition. He is the most experienced politician in the country and he was the steady hand that assured everyone that things will not be chaotic.

Things are stable and there's about a year left for him to tidy up whatever things he needs to get done before he is scheduled to step down. Dr M should not overstay his welcome.

He should not make the mistake of thinking people voted for PH because they wanted him to become the PM. They wanted Anwar but they needed him to make it happen because Anwar was in jail at the time. So, they settled for Dr M as an interim PM. That's what the people voted for.

Dr M would do well to remember that and start planning for the transition instead of playing mind games with Anwar and the electorate.

Azmin and his supporters are taking a huge gamble

Why is he supporting Azmin's stance on the PM handover issue? He's really rolling the dice with this one.

By openly supporting PAS's call for Dr M to serve a full term, Azmin has made it clear he doesn't want Anwar to become PM. His supporters, most notably Zuraida, have also openly called for this, knowing full well that was not the agreement going into GE14 and knowing full well that is not what the people voted for. Yet, they persist in trying to thwart Anwar's succession into the PM role.

It's one thing if a faction within PKR has decided to engage in an internecine war with the majority of the party, which does want Anwar to become PM. It's quite another when an leader from another party, in this case Maszlee, wades into the controversy and makes clear he also wants to thwart Anwar's plans to become PM.

If Anwar ever comes to power, these folks will be in the political wilderness. Even if Anwar is not the vengeful type, it's hard to imagine he would have in his Cabinet people who openly tried to prevent him from becoming PM.

So, will Anwar become PM? Well that's the plan although some people are trying their best to shake things up. It's hard to tell what Dr M is up to. He's had that mysterious meeting with the Opposition, which only serves to cause more gossip to fly. Every few days you have one of Azmin's supporters or Bersatu people calling for Dr M to stay on for the full term.

It's obvious they hope this will result in a groundswell of support from among the rakyat for Dr M to stay on until GE15. But this isn't going to happen. The majority of the public that voted out BN, didn't do so because they wanted Dr M back. They did so because they Anwar to become PM but it was necessary to have Dr M as an interim PM because Anwar was in jail then.

The understanding has always been that Anwar would take over Dr M after two years. And that was what the people voted for. Anybody that tries to change that is trying to deny the will of the people.

They grossly underestimate public opinion. Dr M is a safe pair of hands to guide the country through the transition period from 60 years of BN rule to a new PH government. He is also the man to ensure that the people behind the 1MDB scandal will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. But Dr M is not the man to bring about much-needed reforms.

Anwar is. And that's what the people voted for. People like Azmin, as skilled a political operator as he is, don't realize that. These people are in for a rude awakening.

The Haziq video scandal is really bizarre

As with most things in politics, whom you believe tends to depend on whom you support. It's no coincidence that those who are quick to dismiss the Haziq videos are Azmin supporters and those who say, "let's wait to see the outcome of the investigations" happen to be Anwar supporters.

There are so many things that are weird about this situation. Let's start with the timing of it.

The fact that this video came out soon after Latheefa Koya was unilaterally appointed MACC chief has got conspiracy theorists in a frenzy. Remember, the allegations are not just that Azmin was involved in an affair with Haziq but also that he was involved in corruption.

If you are into conspiracy theories, there are two ways to look at it. One conspiracy theory is that Dr M knew this scandal was about to explode to he put in an Azmin supporter in charge of MACC to ensure that he is protected.

The other conspiracy theory is that whoever leaked the videos did so right after Latheefa was appointed to make it look like it was all done to protect Azmin.

There are problems with both conspiracy theories. With regard to the first one, nobody believes Latheefa is willing to be a pawn in anybody's Machiavellian games. She may be an Azmin supporter (or anti-Anwar, depending on how you look at it) but she is seen as someone with high integrity and will not defend someone if there is evidence of wrongdoing by that person. Besides, early indications are that the corruption allegation seem to be false, although investigations are ongoing).

As for the second one, for the leaker to have timed the release of the videos right after Latheefa was appointed mean that leaker knew about the impending appointment. How would anyone know? Even Dr M's Cabinet did not know.

Now, let's look at Haziq's allegation. He did not claim that he was sexually assaulted or that there was any coercion involved. But if the duo were willing partners (or lovers) why would he turn on Azmin? And why would he claim Azmin was corrupt? On the face of it, it does sound like this was designed to smear Azmin.

But it's worth mentioning that even if an action is meant to ruin someone politically, it doesn't mean that person was not the person in the video. We don't know if that person was Azmin or not. There was an overseas article where several video forensics experts were asked to verify the authenticity of the video clips. Their conclusion was that it was not a fake or doctored video although they couldn't say whether the other person involved was Azmin or not. What they could say was simply that it was not a deepfake.

So, if the video is real, who is the person with Haziq (assuming that was Haziq in the video). Was it someone wearing make up to look like Azmin?

Also, it Haziq wanted to frame Azmin, and assuming for the sake of discussion that Azmin was the one in the video, shouldn't he have installed a HD camera instead? Shouldn't he have accumulated more damning evidence then some grainy video footage?

If the investigators are doing their job properly, video forensics specialists should be engaged to verify the authenticity of the video and perhaps they could give their judgement on how likely the people in the video are actually Haziq and Azmin.

Secondly, CCTV footage of the hotel should be reviewed to see if these two men entered the same room and how long they were in the room etc.

All these types of things and more needs to be looked into. These are extraordinary accusations being made by Haziq and fervent denials by Azmin. The authorities have to get to the bottom of this and I believe in the end they will.

In the meantime, it's pointless arguing one way or the other. It's not convincing for Dr M to have simply dismiss the videos even before the investigations had begun. It's also not right for people to jump to conclusions about Azmin. The truth will eventually come out and it might not look good for either party.

Latheefa Koya saga -- it depends on whose ox is being gored

Whether you are happy or bothered by Latheefa Koya's appointment as MACC chief depends almost entirely on where you lie on the political spectrum of Pakatan Harapan, and specifically within PKR.

Basically, if you are in the pro-Anwar faction,  you fall into "concerned about process" camp. If you are in the pro-Azmin camp, you are in the "the PM has the right to appoint whoever he wants" camp.

And if you are not into PKR politics or even Pakatan politics, you are probably glad that Latheefa Koya has been selected to head MACC because of her reputation as an idealist and activist. You believe she will make criminals shiver, as Ambiga put it.

I am of the same opinion as Ambiga. From what I've read of Latheefa, she probably would make a good MACC chief.

That doesn't mean there isn't any concern whatsoever about process. I think it's not a good thing that the process promised by Pakatan was not adhered to. However, my concern about process has nothing to do with whether I'm in the pro-Anwar vs pro-Azmin camp. I think it's important that the executive does not have so much powers.

It would have been interesting to see how each of these camps would have reacted if someone who was anti-Azmin and pro-Anwar was selected the same way to become MACC chief. I suspect that if that had happened, the very same people who are concerned about process suddenly don't mind that the process was not followed. Similarly, the very people who don't think that process is important, would suddenly be harping about process and why it should have been followed.

In other words, it depends on whose ox is being gored. What position you take has little to do with process or no process and has everything to do with which faction you support.

Dr M continues to surprise

He's unpredictable!

Just when you thought Dr M is spiralling towards his old self again, adopting UMNO-type tactics of harping on bumiputra issues and dragging his feet on reforms, he surprises you... not with one but two things. Both are welcome developments but with caveats.

The first one was the surprise appointment of Latheefa Koya as the MACC chief. Her appointment was met with a chorus of praise from members of civil society:

Ambiga Sreenevasan said: "No doubt many crooks will be uncomfortable and terrified."

Centre to Combat Corruption and Cronyism (C4) Executive Director Cynthia Gabriel said: "I am completely taken by surprise but am happy about the choice. She is fearless, brave and a no-nonsense person. She will bring MACC to new heights."

Bersih Chairperson Thomas Fann said: “She is known to be a highly principled and courageous lawyer. Such qualities would make her a great chief of the MACC.

Human Rights Watch Asia Deputy Director Phil Robertson said: "Her strong adherence to human rights principles, tenacity and astuteness will serve her well in this new position to hold Malaysian politicians and civil servants accountable."

There are some criticisms about her being from PKR but the main concern has been with the process by which she was appointed. Dr M didn't even inform his Cabinet. Explaining this, Dr M said: "If the cabinet had to make the decision, it would have restricted me."

C4's Gabriel's response to this perfectly captures how I feel about this situation: "Although the appointment process should have been open to applications and reviewed by the parliamentary select committee, the random choice made in this case is a good one."

The other thing that came as a pleasant surprise was Dr M's views about Gopal Sri Ram's suggestion that the government hold an internal inquiry into judicial misconduct rather than have a Royal Commission of Inquiry (RCI) into the matter. Sri Ram had said that an RCI was inappropriate as it would violate the constitutional doctrine of separation of powers.

However Dr M has come out against an internal inquiry and for an RCI. Why? Because that's what the public wants. He said: "There are many different opinions, but largely, the public wants an RCI."

That is correct. It is what the public wants. If the judiciary has been corrupted, the public wants to know what happened and who was involved. This is the only way to restore confidence in the judiciary, which has been eroded over the years (ironically because of some of Dr M's actions).

Having an RCI is absolutely the right way forward. 

Team-building @TGV Indulge

Our judo club was turning four years old. We had never had an annual dinner before and I felt our fourth anniversary would be a good occasion to have one for the first time.

I toyed around with a few different ideas. I initially thought of booking a Japanese restaurant. I even thought of catering food. In the end, we decided to try something a little bit different. How about giving our players a nice buffet dinner and a movie afterwards?

Everybody loves a buffet cos they can eat to their hearts' delight and who doesn't love a movie?

When I inquired about it, I was surprised to find that it was actually affordable. Indulge, which is TGV's in-house restaurant (available at TGV 1 Utama and Sunway Velocity), had several different buffet options, the cheapest of which was around RM40 per head. You'd need to have a group of around 30 people though. We did have that so the dinner part was very viable for us. It would have been pretty costly to buy everyone an Indulge movie ticket but a regular cinema ticket, at RM19 each, was doable.

Of course when you have a team-building event, you need to have some team-building activities. That's not the easiest thing to do in a dinner setting. But I researched online and found an interesting game which I adapted for my judo club members. It's called "2 truths and 1 lie". We had everyone post on our Whatsapp Group two truths about themselves and one lie -- relating to their judo experiences. Then the group would have to try to figure out which one was the lie. It actually worked out quite well. We got to know each other better through that game. And there were a lot of laughs too.

We also gave away special judo keychain souveniers and had a lucky draw for four Indulge cinema tickets. Everybody liked that too.

We had set aside two hours for the dinner so that people could relax and not be in a rush. By the time the movie was about to start, we were done with the food and talking and were ready for the show.

Overall it was a great experience for our members. We normally just meet each other on the judo mat and for the first time we had an activity outside of the mat. It was the right choice to do this.

Still lots of hope left in Harapan

So a year has come and gone since the miracle happened that gave birth to the New Malaysia. I know there are a lot of skeptics and critics who say that Pakatan Harapan has been a letdown. Just the other day, a former journalist turned successful businessman said to me: "From one ex-journalist to another, what's your honest view of Pakatan Harapan so far?

This is what I told him: Pakatan might not have fulfilled some of its promises and the pace of reforms may have been much slower than expected but on the whole, this new government is a million times better than the previous one.

That ex-journalist agreed with me. I suspect there are many who feel exactly the same way. Yes, Pakatan has been a letdown in some ways but it's still way, way, way better than the alternative. Nobody wants to go back to the BN era.

Some cynics might point to recent by-elections where Pakatan got beaten but these by-elections are not a clear indication of how the electorate would vote in a general election. In by-elections, voters know whether there's anything at stake. Will the state government fall because of this by-election? Will the federal government change hands because of this by-election? If the answer is no, then not much urgency or priority is given to the by-election.

If a voter is out of town (for university or for work), he or she might not bother to return home to vote because win or lose, it won't cause a change in government. In other words, the by-election is deemed to be rather inconsequential.

In contrast, if this were a general election, that same voter might think: "If I don't vote, I might be contributing to the defeat of Pakatan Harapan (either at state or federal level)". So that person makes a point to return to vote because the last thing he or she wants is a return to BN rule.

So, BN might have won three by-elections in a row. It's no indication that it will do any better in GE15 than it did in GE14. In fact, I believe it will do far, far worse in GE15 (but that's a topic for a future blog posting).

The pace of reforms has been slow but you have to understand Dr M is not by nature a reformist. At the very most he is a grudging reformist who has agreed to some reforms because of the insistence of his coalition partners. If he had his druthers, he would prefer to retain all the draconian laws like Sedition Act, Official Secrets Act and so on. Heck, there's probably a part of him who deep inside would like it if the ISA could be reinstated.

You are not going to see a whole lot of reforms during his tenure, which is already one year in on a two year stint. For real reform that will satisfy civil society, we really have to wait until Anwar comes to power. He is more likely to push through such reforms.

What you will get from Dr M are two things. Firstly, a push-back against royal political activism. The royals should be above politics although that's not always the case. Dr M will ensure that under our system of constitutional monarchy, it is the elected politicians who wield political power. Ours is not an absolute monarchy. Under a constitutional monarchy, it is the party that wins which gets to decide who becomes the prime minister and the menteri besar.

Secondly, prosecution of corruption, especially for 1MDB-related crimes. There will be no back-peddling or going soft on people who robbed the country of billions of ringgit. There will be no amnesty for these people. Dr M will make sure everyone responsible be brought to justice.

If all Dr M does is accomplish these two things during the one year he has left before handing the keys over to Anwar, our nation would owe him a debt of gratitude. What kind of prime minister would Anwar be? Of course we can't say for sure but he's not exactly a man of mystery. There are certain things we can expect.

For example, the pace of reforms when it comes to civil liberties would probably pick up considerably. I would be surprised if under and Anwar administration all the repressive laws are not thrown out. I expect them to be abolished before GE15.


Anwar has also been more consistent than Dr M when it comes to multi-racialism. Dr M's party is the only one in the coalition that is race-based. PKR has been multi-racial (thought predominantly Malay) since the start.

What's not clear is how Anwar would deal with the royals. Right now he seems to be the good cop to Dr M's bad cop. But if one looks back at history, back when Dr M first battled the royals during his first stint at PM, Anwar was his staunchest supporter and was strident in pushing back against royals. Will he be as strong as Dr M in this area when he is PM? One would think he would insist on the political party in power having the right to determine who is to become the menteri besar and so on, just like Dr M. But it's hard to say because of late he is seen to be softer than Dr M on this issue. Then again, his role may be that of the good cop for now. So we shall see what happens when Dr M leaves the political scene.

How about clamping down on corruption? There is no question Anwar will come down hard against corruption. He is committed to that. If anything, he will want his administration to be seen to be even cleaner than the current one (which is already a whole lot cleaner than the previous one). But will he be as aggressive when it comes to the 1MDB case? Or will he be softer on that? Again, that is hard to say but perhaps the main culprits behind the 1MDB scandal will be behind bars by the time he takes over.

Although we have not seen sweeping changes when it comes to repressive laws etc, to me the outlook looks good. I, for one, am damn glad that BN is no longer the government. I still pinch myself every now and then to make sure this is not a dream. Yes, we are free from that corrupt regime. Happy 1st birthday, New Malaysia!

TGV at i-City: Taking the cinematic experience to another level

Technology has disrupted many industries – news, music, TV – and the movie industry is no exception. As more and more people consume entertainment content online through their laptops, tablets and mobile phones, cinema chains have to constantly innovate to stay competitive and appeal to an audience that is spoiled for choice.

One approach could be to offer a bare-bones offering at a very low price and become the AirAsia of cinemas. The other way is to double-down and offer luxury and amenities that will making going to the cinema a whole different experience.

This is what TGV, the leading local cinema chain, has been doing. It’s been gradually upgrading many of its cinemas and has just opened its largest (nine halls, with a total of over 1600 seats, spread over 5500 square metres) cinema at the new Central i-City Mall in Shah Alam. I was there for the opening.

It’s also its most technologically advanced one to date, with immersive sound systems, state-of-the-art screens and luxury seating with generous legroom. And speaking of luxury, it has a Royal Selangor shop that sells movie-related collectables, two spacious lounges and an event space. For consumer convenience there is Wi-Fi, mobile phone charging stations and self-service ticketing machines.

Normally recording video at a cinema is a big no-no (you will get arrested for that!) but the grand opening was an exception and I was allowed to shoot freely, even inside the cinema halls. It was a bit noisy throughout but check out the visuals!

Grand Opening

Family-Friendly Hall

To cater to the entire family, especially those with small children, there is the Family Friendly Hall which has a children’s activity room attached to it. Inside the theatre hall, there will be a mix of family lounger (for the parents and two children), deluxe seats, colourful children seats and loungers situated just below the screen. The restroom is also children-friendly.

Deluxe Hall

The main feature of the Deluxe hall features are its premium gliding seats that are very wide and super comfortable. A total of 160 seats in all.

Samsung Onyx Hall

The Samsung Onyx hall features the largest Samsung LED cinema screen in Southeast Asia, offering top-notch visuals with superb colours. Really ideal for watching those movies with lots of special effects.

IMAX

If you like the IMAX experience, you will love the massive IMAX hall here which features a premium seating and a floor-to-ceiling screen. Coupled with a superb sound system, it will give you a total ultimate immersive cinema experience.


Price
So, will all these luxury halls cost you and arm and a leg? You’ll be surprised to hear that tickets start at RM16 with premium options at around RM20. Too good to be true? It’s worth making a trip to TGV at Central i-City Mall to experience it for yourself.

Cambridge International University?!?

Cambridge (International) University Graduate

I don't understand why these guys feel a need to get a "distance learning" degree from an unaccredited university. In the past it used to be UMNO hacks who would be exposed to have questionable degrees. Now, it's a Bersatu man.

In case you are wondering, no, Cambridge International University has nothing to do with the famous Cambridge University in the UK.

Cambridge International University is where you can get a Bachelor's Degree by distance learning for US$5000.00 (what a bargain!). Best of all, you can pay for this via PayPal. Yes, it's all stated there in its official website that's "proudly powered by WordPress").

Impressive... NOT!

There's no alternative

For better or for wore, this is our only viable choice for now and for some time to come.

People are fond of saying, "The people who voted you in can vote you out just as easily". Quite a few people who are disappointed with Pakatan Harapan for failing to fulfill some of its promises have said variations of this statement.

The problem with this seemingly logical statement is that it's just not true in the context of Malaysian politics at this moment.

In order to vote a party (or a coalition) out of office, you will need to vote for some other party. The question is "which other party?".

If you are not happy with Pakatan Harapan, who are you going to vote for instead? UMNO? PAS? MCA? MIC?

As if any of those parties are even a serious consideration. The harsh reality is that we don't have an effective opposition in this country. So there is really no choice because the alternative is far, far, far worse than PH.

Let's say you are not happy that PH is merely watering down repressive laws instead of abolishing them. So what do you do? Do you vote instead for the party that likes to use repressive laws?

Let's say you are not happy that PH has been slow in charging people for stealing public money (e.g. 1MDB). Do you vote instead for the party whose leaders stole that money?

You don't quite like the idea of Anwar becoming PM? Do you prefer Zahid?

Let's say you are unhappy with the state of the Malaysian economy and you declare that if the government doesn't get its act together, you will move to the USA instead. That's all fine and dandy if moving to the USA was an option you had. What if the USA was not an option? What if the only alternative available to you was Somalia?

Would you prefer to move to Somalia?

Let's face it, we don't have a choice but to vote for PH because the opposition parties are so useless, they do not even merit any consideration.

Is this a good thing? Of course not. It's better to have a strong opposition to keep the government on its toes and in check. But if we had to have a one-party system (instead of two), I'd most definitely prefer Pakatan Harapan over Barisan Nasional any day of the week.