Wednesday, August 14, 2019

PH's saving grace

Right now things are looking quite bleak for Pakatan Harapan, with component parties constantly bickering while many promises remain unfulfilled. To make it worse, Dr M has insisted on some policies that seem to be antithetical to what PH is all about.

Fortunately for PH, there are several factors it's got going for it:

a) The next general election is still some time away (slightly less than 4 more years to go). People have short memories. If PH can turn things around before GE15, and the economy is in good shape, all this turmoil will be forgotten.

b) As chaotic as PH is, the opposition (BN + PAS) is in an even bigger mess. Plus BN/UMNO now has got no money with its bank accounts frozen. And being in the opposition does not exactly endear them to political donors.

c) There might be some protest votes but most people who voted for PH are not going to suddenly vote for BN just because they are disappointed with PH. As disappointing as PH may be, it's still a gazillion times better than BN. Very few unhappy PH supporters would be able to bring themselves to vote the kleptocrats back into power just to spite PH. It just won't happen.

PH's biggest challenge is to avoid imploding. PKR, in particular looks dangerously like it could splinter. And Dr M is so unpredictable. With him, the maxim: "There are no permanent friends or permanent enemies, only permanent interests" really applies. So, a PH implosion is not completely out of the question. But if PH can avoid imploding, it should be able to win GE15, what with BN being in such bad shape.

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