What happens if some PN MPs jump ship?

Speculation is rife that the ground is fast shifting under Muhyiddin's feet. With just a tiny majority (113 MPs), all it takes is for two MPs to jump ship and his government falls. Well, technically, it'd be a hung Parliament with 111 on each side.

On paper, that could mean a snap election but before that happens, you can be sure there will be a lot of horsetrading and a lot of jumping ship here and there. It won't stay 111 for long.

Actually it doesn't even take two people to get things moving. Even if one person jumps ship, it already forces everyone to start making their political calculations. For those in Perikatan, they will have to think: "Do I stick with PN or do I go where the momentum is?" If they feel many others are jumping over to the Opposition, they too will jump ship in their belief that the Opposition will soon become the government.

The question is, is Harapan as eager to take in frogs as they were last time (to be fair, only Bersatu took in a lot of frogs. PKR took in a small handful. Amanah was open to it. DAP steadfastly opposed it). I believe today, if some frogs say they want to jump over, the message to them would be: You are welcome to join the Opposition but you won't be part of Harapan. You will be an independent MP who is supportive of Harapan.

That would be the smart thing to do. And no, Harapan leaders are not idiots. They know what it's like dealing with frogs. You can't trust them. But if they want to jump your way, you might as well make full use of them.

So, are there some MPs who are willing to change sides? UMNO Supreme Council Member Mohd Razlan Rafii said the shifting of allegiance by a number of Bersatu MPs to Dr M won't guarantee his return as prime minister.

"Even the shift of four to five Bersatu MPs to Mahathir's team does not guarantee he can become prime minister again," Razlan said in a statement.

That statement is interesting? Is he referring to the four of five MPs already on Dr M's side or is he talking about four or five additional MPs moving over? Not sure. But he is right in saying that even if Harapan is somehow able to form the majority, there is no guarantee that Dr M will be their candidate for PM. After all, the Opposition leader is Anwar, not Dr M.

Whether Harapan really has 129 MPs or just enough to form the majority, nobody knows, except the top Harapan leadership. But there's no doubt that a psych war is going on and PN people are getting spooked.

They are more than fully aware that their majority is wafer thin. It can crumble any time. All it takes is for one MP to be unhappy with his lot and the floodgates will open. Then it's a free-for-all with everybody trying to figure out how to not bet on the wrong horse.