Mahathir has to choose: Anwar or Muhyiddin as PM

Dr M had a meeting with his strategic partners in the Opposition, minus PKR, who didn't attend the meeting.

With Sri Gading MP Shahruddin Salleh quitting Perikatan, Muhyiddin now has a majority of one in Parliament. It's probably just a matter of time before another one crosses over and then it's a hung Parliament, which could lead to snap polls but will more likely lead to furious rounds of horsetrading on both sides.

There is plenty of speculation that Dr M might be able to convince the GPS coalition in Sarawak to join him. Theoretically, that could give Dr M's coalition up to 128 MPs (the current Opposition has 110 and GPS has 18).

At 128, that's a pretty strong position but there's only one problem for Dr M: It's not a given that PKR is on board. Without PKR, that's 39 MPs gone, leaving Dr M's coalition with 89 (that's assuming GPS is on board). In short, there is no way Dr M can cobble together a coalition government without PKR's involvement.

PKR is playing it right by signalling that it is not necessary on board with Dr M's grand scheme to topple Perikatan. What's the point of doing so if all it means is Dr M is PM again. After all that's happened there is no reason for PKR to want that. It might as well wait for GE15 to happen and so that Harapan can win the election outright, without the help of Dr M or Warisan or GPS or anybody that's not in Harapan. PKR, DAP and Amanah could do it alone. And they should. Otherwise, they will always be held hostage by kingmakers who will threaten to leave if they don't get things their way.

What Anwar and gang are basically telling the rest is: "You may have the numbers if you assume PKR is in there with you but don't take that for granted."

If they want PKR in, they have to agree to PKR's (and actually Harapan's) choice of PM: which is Anwar. Anything short of that, they shouldn't agree. They can afford to wait another three years for GE15 to happen. Mahathir can't. He's already 95. It's not exactly like he's got time on his side.

If he wants to see Perikatan toppled, he's got to make concessions, chief of which is that should this new coalition topple Perikatan, the person to be PM is Anwar. This would be a test of how important he think it is to topple Muhyiddin and gang, who he accuses of conspiring with crooks. If he really cares about that, he should accept Anwar as PM.

Ultimately, Mahathir has to choose: Anwar as PM or Muhyiddin. He might not like either but what's the least worst option? That is the question.