Dr M is used to getting his way. When he was premier for 22
years the first time around, he had his way on practically everything
and outfoxed every foe he came across.
In his 22 months as premier for the second time around, the rest of Pakatan Harapan allowed him to pretty much have his way on everything. And he threw it all away in an amazing display of hubris by abruptly resigning without consulting any of the coalition partners.
Of course he thought by doing so, we would be able to start with a clean slate and pick whomever he wanted from both the Harapan side and the Muafakat side (UMNO + PAS), to form what he called a "unity government" — one in which everyone was accountable to him while he was accountable to no one.
Not only did Harapan reject this, so did Muafakat, leaving him with the support of a total of five Bersatu members (including himself).His own trusted lieutenant, Muhyiddin, and his blue-eyed boy, Azmin, went on to betray him and set up Perikatan.
Dr M's response? He went on to criticize Anwar while trying to reorganize a Harapan Plus coalition that would presumably include GPS in order to win back control over the Parliament. PKR, not surprisingly, balked at this idea.
To which Dr M then gave an ultimatum. If PKR was not willing to work with him to defeat Muhyiddin, he would proceed without PKR and just work with DAP, Amanah, Warisan and presumably GPS, to form the majority he needed.
I'm not sure why Dr M didn't do the math. Even if he were to secure the support of Harapan Plus and GPS, without PKR (which at last count, had 38 MPs) there is no way he can get the numbers to form a majority.
He also erroneously assumed that DAP and Amanah would abandon PKR if they had to choose between him and Anwar. That is a major flaw in his thinking. Yes, DAP and Amanah would have preferred it if Anwar could accept Dr M as PM. But if push came to shove, and they had to decide between the two, the answer is obvious who they would back.
And sure enough, they have come out with a statement that they back Anwar as their PM candidate. This should come as no surprise to anyone though I somehow think Dr M will be surprised when he hears the news.
Like I said, he's used to having things his way but he's been miscalculating every step of the way ever since he decided to resign in order to try to form his so-called unity government.
Harapan members have been through thick and thin together. Why should DAP and Amanah desert PKR in order to join forces with the remnants of Dr M's Bersatu?
Besides, I think DAP and Amanah also did the math. Dr M has five MPs. If you include Warisan's nine MPs, you will have a grand total of 14 MPs. Even if you were to throw in GPS's 18 members, that only adds up to 32. PKR alone has 38.
More importantly, DAP and Amanah know full well that GPS would not be a reliable partner, even if it were to agree to cross over in the first place (which is rather uncertain). Warisan has never declared its allegiance to Harapan, only to Dr M. As for Dr M himself, well, we know his track record.
So, the choice was obvious for both DAP and Amanah: Go with a bunch of parties that are not even part of Harapan or stick with a trusted ally which is a founding member of Harapan.
It makes all the sense in the world for DAP and Amanah to stick with PKR. Together they have 91 MPs. That's 21 MPs shy of forming a majority. So, can they win an additional 21 more seats in GE15? Let's look at the numbers.
Bersatu contested in 52 seats in GE14 (and won 13). Harapan must contest in all 52 of those seats. For good measure, Harapan should also contest in all the 17 seats that Warisan had contested in. That's a total of 69 (52 + 17) seats, of which Harapan must win at least 21 of them.
Not easy. But not impossible either. It's what they need to do. There's no point in relying on deals with GPS or Warisan or the remnants of Dr M's Bersatu, to form the majority. Harapan needs to get the majority on its own.
Then, if they want to, they can consider — from a position of strength — whether to accept other parties who wish to make up the "Plus" in Harapan Plus. Crucially, by having a majority on its own, Harapan would not be held to ransom by any "kingmaker" who can threaten to destroy the coalition if it doesn't get what it wants.
This must be the strategy that Harapan goes for: Aim to win GE15 on its own rather than to try to pull off some kind of counter coup that puts it at the mercy of kingmakers.
In his 22 months as premier for the second time around, the rest of Pakatan Harapan allowed him to pretty much have his way on everything. And he threw it all away in an amazing display of hubris by abruptly resigning without consulting any of the coalition partners.
Of course he thought by doing so, we would be able to start with a clean slate and pick whomever he wanted from both the Harapan side and the Muafakat side (UMNO + PAS), to form what he called a "unity government" — one in which everyone was accountable to him while he was accountable to no one.
Not only did Harapan reject this, so did Muafakat, leaving him with the support of a total of five Bersatu members (including himself).His own trusted lieutenant, Muhyiddin, and his blue-eyed boy, Azmin, went on to betray him and set up Perikatan.
Dr M's response? He went on to criticize Anwar while trying to reorganize a Harapan Plus coalition that would presumably include GPS in order to win back control over the Parliament. PKR, not surprisingly, balked at this idea.
To which Dr M then gave an ultimatum. If PKR was not willing to work with him to defeat Muhyiddin, he would proceed without PKR and just work with DAP, Amanah, Warisan and presumably GPS, to form the majority he needed.
I'm not sure why Dr M didn't do the math. Even if he were to secure the support of Harapan Plus and GPS, without PKR (which at last count, had 38 MPs) there is no way he can get the numbers to form a majority.
He also erroneously assumed that DAP and Amanah would abandon PKR if they had to choose between him and Anwar. That is a major flaw in his thinking. Yes, DAP and Amanah would have preferred it if Anwar could accept Dr M as PM. But if push came to shove, and they had to decide between the two, the answer is obvious who they would back.
And sure enough, they have come out with a statement that they back Anwar as their PM candidate. This should come as no surprise to anyone though I somehow think Dr M will be surprised when he hears the news.
Like I said, he's used to having things his way but he's been miscalculating every step of the way ever since he decided to resign in order to try to form his so-called unity government.
Harapan members have been through thick and thin together. Why should DAP and Amanah desert PKR in order to join forces with the remnants of Dr M's Bersatu?
Besides, I think DAP and Amanah also did the math. Dr M has five MPs. If you include Warisan's nine MPs, you will have a grand total of 14 MPs. Even if you were to throw in GPS's 18 members, that only adds up to 32. PKR alone has 38.
More importantly, DAP and Amanah know full well that GPS would not be a reliable partner, even if it were to agree to cross over in the first place (which is rather uncertain). Warisan has never declared its allegiance to Harapan, only to Dr M. As for Dr M himself, well, we know his track record.
So, the choice was obvious for both DAP and Amanah: Go with a bunch of parties that are not even part of Harapan or stick with a trusted ally which is a founding member of Harapan.
It makes all the sense in the world for DAP and Amanah to stick with PKR. Together they have 91 MPs. That's 21 MPs shy of forming a majority. So, can they win an additional 21 more seats in GE15? Let's look at the numbers.
Bersatu contested in 52 seats in GE14 (and won 13). Harapan must contest in all 52 of those seats. For good measure, Harapan should also contest in all the 17 seats that Warisan had contested in. That's a total of 69 (52 + 17) seats, of which Harapan must win at least 21 of them.
Not easy. But not impossible either. It's what they need to do. There's no point in relying on deals with GPS or Warisan or the remnants of Dr M's Bersatu, to form the majority. Harapan needs to get the majority on its own.
Then, if they want to, they can consider — from a position of strength — whether to accept other parties who wish to make up the "Plus" in Harapan Plus. Crucially, by having a majority on its own, Harapan would not be held to ransom by any "kingmaker" who can threaten to destroy the coalition if it doesn't get what it wants.
This must be the strategy that Harapan goes for: Aim to win GE15 on its own rather than to try to pull off some kind of counter coup that puts it at the mercy of kingmakers.
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