Horsetrading in full swing

Chong says no to PBB as a group but will consider taking in individual Sarawak BN MPs.

The general election is over but the dust hasn't settled yet. In the days and weeks to come, we will see some major party-hopping going on, especially in East Malaysia.

After Dr M had a meeting with Sarawak Governor Taib Mahmud, speculation was rife that Sarawak's various BN parties would actually leave BN. There are 19 BN-linked MPs in Sarawak. If all of them were to leave BN, that would leave it with only 60 MPs in the whole country.

Will this actually happen? It's possible. Apparently, there was already a plan prior to GE14 that the various parties linked to BN (PBB, PRS, PDP, SUPP) would quit BN if Putrajaya falls into the hands of Pakatan. What they would do then would be to collectively push for the Sarawak agenda and Malaysia Agreement 1963. This is something Pakatan would be more amenable to than BN ever would have been.

But there is a problem. Sarawak's Pakatan chief Chong Chieng Jen rejects any cooperation with PBB, which has a whopping 13 out of the 19 seats those four parties collectively have. "Accepting PBB into Harapan is akin to Umno joining Harapan at the national level," Chong said in a statement today.

There is one loophole though. Chong is open to individual party members from BN's Sarawak parties to apply for membership in Pakatan (subject to MACC vetting, of course).

My guess is we will see various individuals switching camps. Why? For the same reason I've always said. Everyone wants to be the winner. No one wants to be left behind on a sinking ship. BN is of no use to its Sarawak parties anymore now that is in the opposition.

That sentiment is prevailing in neighbouring Sabah as well. Apparently six BN MPs have already switched sides. Logically this means the Warisan-lead coalition now has the majority (with 35 seats). If they actually take over the Sabah government, you can be sure Pakatan will be flooded with applications from other BN MPs there.

We could very well see both Sabah and Sarawak -- BN's former "fixed deposits" -- turning to Pakatan very soon. Things are very fluid and happening very quickly.

Over in the Peninsula, you have an impasse in Perak where Pakatan has 29 seats while BN has 27. PAS has the remaining three seats. Since neither Pakatan nor BN has a simple majority, PAS has become the kingmaker. Whichever side it chooses will become the government.

PAS President Hadi Awang has proposed a unity government that involves every MP so that there will no longer be an opposition. That means Pakatan, PAS and BN MPs all in the same government. It's wishful thinking and totally impractical.

As mentioned earlier, PAS's pursuit of hudud will make it impossible to collaborate with Pakatan. Does that mean it has no choice but to turn to BN, which in today's context is basically UMNO? It would seem that way. But that doesn't mean the BN/PAS coalition will necessarily become the government.

What if Pakatan is able to get a few BN MPs to jump ship? It wouldn't be that hard. All they have to do is ask individual MPs: "Would you rather be in the opposition or be in the government?"

Actually this is the question every BN MP in the country is asking themselves right now: "Do I really love BN so much that I would stick with it through thick and thin?" In the cold light of day, when reality sinks in, they will know their answer.