How a powerful Pakatan can avoid being BN 2.0

There will be some built in checks and balances on Pakatan and on Dr M.

One of the popular messages going around in social media and Whatsapp is the warning that Pakatan must avoid becoming BN 2.0.

It's inevitable that Pakatan will become like BN in one regard, which is that it will dominate the Malaysian political landscape. As I had articulated before, nobody wants to be left behind on a sinking ship.

In the coming days and weeks, you will see more and more BN reps -- both at the federal and state level -- jumping ship. In some cases it can be a wholesale jump, such as in Sarawak where it's possible that all of the BN-linked parties there will dump BN en masse. In Sabah, four parties have already left BN and counting.

Even UMNO's long-suffering little brother, MCA, has said that it is rethinking its position within BN. Although they haven't articulated it, I'm sure  leaders in MIC and Gerakan are pondering the same thing.

It's hardly a bold prediction to say that within months, we could see BN falling apart and what you'll have left is a bunch of opposition parties going their own ways and pursuing their own agendas -- much like how it was when Pakatan parties were in the opposition.

It will be a role reversal. Pakatan will be as strong as BN was in its peak. And BN-parties will be as weak and fractured as Pakatan parties were at one time. So, in terms of dominance, Pakatan will become just like BN.

As a general rule of thumb, it's never a good thing for a party or coalition to be so strong that the opposition is but a token presence.

Granted, sometimes such situations can still result in good governance. Just look at Singapore. It's basically a one-party system. But there's hardly any corruption, and everything's efficient, etc. This is rare though. A one-party system is usually bad for the country.

How can Pakatan avoid becoming BN 2.0 if there is no credible opposition to check its powers (and thus potential abuses)?

The answer lies in the power-structure and dynamics among its five core parties -- PKR, DAP, Amanah, Bersatu and Warisan -- who because of their rivalry, will naturally check and balance each other out.

In BN everything was dictated by one party. That is not the case in Pakatan because no one party is as powerful as UMNO once was. Let's look at the numbers, shall we?

Pakatan has 122 MPs
PKR: 48
DAP: 42
Bersatu: 13
Amanah: 11
Warisan: 8

PKR, with 48, has the most number of seats. DAP, with 42, is a close second. It also happens to be very close with Amanah which has 11. Combined, they have 53 which means PKR can't run roughshod over these two parties.

Bersatu has only 13 seats but it has Dr M, who happens to be the prime minister. That gives it clout that is disproportionate to its numbers. Warisan has the least number of federal seats in the coalition but it's Pakatan's strongest party in East Malaysia, which gives it some disproportionate clout. Warisan is also close to Bersatu. Combined, they have 21 seats (plus Dr M). That's nothing to sneeze at. So, really, no one party can dominate. And for that reason alone, Pakatan can never become a BN 2.0.

Speaking of Dr M, there are some concerns among some Pakatan supporters that he will go back to his old ways now that he is the PM again. It's true that a PM wields great authority but a Pakatan PM does not have the same kind of autonomy that a BN PM had. Again, you have to look at the power structure within Pakatan and understand that it's not possible for Dr M to do whatever he wants.

Let's say, purely for the sake of discussion, he wants to re-introduce the ISA. The other parties won't let him. It's as simple as that. He may be the PM but only because all the other MPs in Pakatan support him to hold that position. That support would erode very quickly if he were to try to do something against the principles and spirit the coalition was founded upon.

So, there will be checks and balances on Pakatan (and on Dr M). It just won't come from the opposition but rather from within.