Why PAS doesn't matter

It's downhill from now on for PAS.

By most accounts, PAS did better in GE14 than most serious analysts and political observers had expected. There was even one famous Invoke Malaysia survey which predicted that PAS would be completely wiped out in the elections.

Not only did PAS not get wiped out, it actually won 18 federal seats and took control of two states on the East Coast (Kelantan and Terengganu). On the surface, that looks like a superb result. But is it, really?

Let's look at the federal level first. Yes, 18 seats is far better than the 0 seats that Invoke had predicted but it's not as good as the 21 seats it had won in GE13 and is quite a climb down from the 23 it had won in GE12. As you can see, its federal wins have been on a down trend over the past three election cycles. There's no reason to believe it won't continue to decline.

Now, let's look at the state level. Its win in Terengganu was indeed a surprise but it has controlled Terengganu before (won it in GE10 and lost it in GE11). It even controlled Kedah at one time (won it in GE12 but lost it in GE13).

Do you see a trend here? Unlike its former colleagues in the now defunct Pakatan Rakyat, PAS was not able to hold on to any newly-won state for more than one election cycle. In contrast DAP and PKR have not let go of Penang and Selangor respectively, since they won those states in GE12.

Still, credit goes to PAS for retaining Kelantan and taking back Terengganu. But was this win because people there supported PAS or was it more because they were against BN? Malay Mail columnist Zurairi AR believes it's the latter:

"PAS may have won the east coast states of Kelantan and Terengganu, but that did not necessarily signal endorsement for its Islamist policies. It was more likely an indication of the public’s eagerness to kick Najib Razak and BN out, and PAS just happened to be the Opposition that was familiar enough to them."

Zurairi also highlights some interesting points in his column that I wasn't aware of. Most likely you weren't too unless you follow PAS politics very closely.

For example, did you know that just one day before the elections, a pro-Islamist group called Gerakan Pengundi Sedar (GPS) released a list of 26 seats (all PAS candidates) that it said must be won by Muslims? As it turned out, not a single one of those seats was won by PAS candidates and 15 of them actually lost their deposits. These so-called "must win" seats were indeed a wipe-out for PAS.

According to Zurairi, another group called Ummah published a declaration two days before the elections pledging the support of its five million members for candidates who are staunch supporters of Islamic superiority.

Five million should translate to a lot of votes. But Malay Mail's calculation puts the popular vote for PAS at roughly one million. That's less than 10% of the total registered voters in this country, and as Zurairi noted, a far cry from the five million that Ummah had promised to deliver. So what happened to the other four million of Ummah's members? They obviously either voted for Pakatan or BN (or did not vote at all).

Whatever the case, a green tsunami this was not.

PAS might not have been wiped out as some Pakatan supporters had hoped but it was a big loser in one respect: It failed in its ambition to be a kingmaker in several states. This was most obvious in the state of Perak where it thought it could set terms for helping one side or the other to form the state government there. In the end, Pakatan formed the state government in Perak without PAS's help (through two defections from BN). Instead of giving in to PAS's demands, Pakatan circumvented it instead. So not only did PAS not get its way, it's not even part of the Perak government. Instead, it's a lowly opposition party with three state seats (the other opposition party, UMNO, has 27).

So, while PAS generally did better in GE14 than expected it's hardly a harbinger of things to come. Far from growing in strength it will become weaker over the next few years. In keeping with its track record of losing newly-won states, it will probably lose Terengganu in GE15. Heck, it might even lose Kelantan.

Impossible, you say? Consider this. As the rest of the country zooms ahead in economic development under a dynamic new Pakatan government, the folks in Kelantan and Terengganu will be left to wonder why their economy isn't quite as robust.

And unlike in GE14, in the next general elections there will be no need for any protest votes against BN (by then BN would have been severely weakened to the point where it's just not relevant anymore, and might even cease exist as a coalition).

So, the good folks Kelantan and Teregganu will have a clear choice between PAS and Pakatan. They will have to decide whether they want five more years of stagnation or whether they want to join the rest of the country in progressing towards developed nation status.

Invoke's sensationalist prediction of a PAS wipe out was way off for GE14 but it might actually be spot on for GE15.