Merdeka Center has found that while 95% and 70-75% of Indians voted for Pakatan, for the Malays the vote was split three ways. BN got 35-40%; PAS got 30-33%; Pakatan got 25-30%.
The natural question is how will the Malay vote be like in GE15? With PAS and BN now in the opposition does that mean that 65-73% of the vote will go to the opposition? Probably not.
Firstly, if BN/UMNO and PAS cooperate, that would alienate some voters in each camp. Some UMNO people will refuse to vote for PAS, while some PAS people would never vote for UMNO. Such voters, who are disgusted with the idea of UMNO and PAS cooperating will either not vote or they will vote for Pakatan.
Secondly, if political analyst Wong Chin Huat is correct, about 20% of Malays don't vote along party lines but rather, they support the government of the day. So if Pakatan got 25-30% and you add another 20% who in GE14 did not vote for Pakatan but now would (given that it is now the government of the day), you would have between 45-50% voting for Pakatan.
It's hard to say how many disillusioned UMNO/PAS supporters there would be but assuming that number is just 10%, Pakatan would then enjoy a 55-60% support among the Malays.
The natural question is how will the Malay vote be like in GE15? With PAS and BN now in the opposition does that mean that 65-73% of the vote will go to the opposition? Probably not.
Firstly, if BN/UMNO and PAS cooperate, that would alienate some voters in each camp. Some UMNO people will refuse to vote for PAS, while some PAS people would never vote for UMNO. Such voters, who are disgusted with the idea of UMNO and PAS cooperating will either not vote or they will vote for Pakatan.
Secondly, if political analyst Wong Chin Huat is correct, about 20% of Malays don't vote along party lines but rather, they support the government of the day. So if Pakatan got 25-30% and you add another 20% who in GE14 did not vote for Pakatan but now would (given that it is now the government of the day), you would have between 45-50% voting for Pakatan.
It's hard to say how many disillusioned UMNO/PAS supporters there would be but assuming that number is just 10%, Pakatan would then enjoy a 55-60% support among the Malays.
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